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Description:
How dangerous is smoking? What are the risks of nuclear power or
of climate change? What are the chances of dying on an airplane?
More importantly, how do we use this information once we have it?
The demand for risk analysts who are able to answer such questions
has grown exponentially in recent years.
Yet programs to train these analysts have not kept pace. In this
book, Daniel Kammen and David Hassenzahl address that problem. They
draw together, organize, and seek to unify previously disparate
theories and methodologies connected with risk analysis for health,
environmental, and technological problems. They also provide a rich
variety of case studies and worked problems, meeting the growing
need for an up-to-date book suitable for teaching and individual
learning.
The specific problems addressed in the book include order-of-magnitude
estimation, dose-response calculations, exposure assessment, extrapolations
and forecasts based on experimental or natural data, modeling and
the problems of complexity in models, fault-tree analysis, managing
and estimating uncertainty, and social theories of risk and risk
communication. The authors cover basic and intermediate statistics,
as well as Monte Carlo methods (with descriptions and charts from
Crystal Ball), Bayesian analysis, and various techniques of uncertainty
and forecast evaluation.
The volume's unique approach will appeal to a wide range of people
in environmental science and studies, health care, and engineering,
as well as to policy makers confronted by the increasing number
of decisions requiring risk and cost/benefit analysis.
"This is a splendid book. It should be of interest to a wide range
of students and professionals across the environmental and health
sciences." (John Harte, University of California, Berkeley; author
of Consider a Spherical Cow)
"This book will be very useful as a text in a risk-analysis class.
It will also be a valuable reference for practitioners of risk assessment
in industry, government, and consulting. . . . The organization
of the book is logical and effective." (James K. Hammitt, Harvard
University)
Details:
Reprint edition (June 1, 2001), Princeton Univ Pr; softcover, 404
pp., ISBN: 0691074577. Does not include a version of Crystal
Ball.
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Description:
Is there potential for a U.S. regulatory system that is more efficient
and effective? Or is the future likely to involve "paralysis by
analysis"? Improving Regulation considers the challenges
faced by the regulatory system as society and technology change,
and our knowledge about the effects of our activities on human and
planetary health becomes more sophisticated.
While considering the difficulty in linking regulatory design and
performance, Improving Regulation makes the case for empowering
regulatory analysis. Studying applications as diverse as fire protection,
air and water pollution, and genetics, its contributors examine
the strategies of different stakeholders in today's complex policymaking
environment. With a focus on the behavior of institutions and people,
they consider the impact that organizational politics, science,
technology, and performance have on regulation. They explore the
role of technology in creating and reducing uncertainty, the costs
of control, the potential involvement of previously unregulated
sectors, and the contentious public debates about fairness and participation
in regulatory policy.
Arguing that the success of many regulations depends upon their
acceptance by the public, Fischbeck, Farrow, and their contributors
offer extensive, inductive evidence on the art of regulatory analysis.
The resulting book provides "real world" examples of regulation,
and a demonstration of how to synthesize analytical skills with
a knowledge of physical and social processes.
Scott Farrow co-authored Chapter 19, "Facilitating Regulatory
Design and Stakeholder Participation," which describes and
includes a computer template for benefit-cost analysis. This template,
the Fast Environmental Regulatory Evaluation Tool (FERET) uses Crystal
Ball in its risk analysis.The book does not include a version
of Crystal Ball. A
PDF version of this chapter (model not included) is available free
at the publisher's site.
Details:
Published August, 2001 by Resources
for the Future Publications, Copyright 2001; ISBN: 1891853104.
Does not include a version of Crystal Ball.
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