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Description:
This is an update of 1975 best-selling Decision Analysis for
Petroleum Exploration. This widely-cited book remains the standard
text and reference in the field. This book introduces the reader
to ways of applying statistical decision analysis concepts to the
analysis of risk and uncertainty in petroleum exploration investment
decisions.
Topics covered in the book represent a composite of attitudes and
practices used throughout the world for analyzing drilling prospects.
The emphasis in this book is on the application of quantitative
analysis methods to petroleum exploration decisions. The book will
be of special interest to anyone involved in the evaluation of drilling
prospects: petroleum geologists, engineers, geophysicists, and management
decision makers. A mathematical or statistical background is not
required to follow the practical, applications-oriented discussions.
The book first reviews the advantages and disadvantages of various
profitability criteria used for selecting and comparing drilling
prospects. The important expected value concept is next introduced
in chapter 3. This is a decision criterion that derives from judgments
about risks and uncertainties expressed as probabilities. Expected
value is the cornerstone of any formal, quantitative analysis of
decision making under uncertainty.
Included in this discussion on expected value are chapters on the
formulation and solution of decision trees, Monte Carlo simulation,
and comments on the controversial subject of risk preference (utility)
theory. The remainder of the book is devoted to the complex subject
of risk analysis - determining the probabilities of occurrence of
the possible outcomes of a decision made under conditions of uncertainty.
Throughout the book numerous real-world exploration examples are
given to illustrate how the decision analysis methods can be applied.
Details:
Published 2000 by Planning
Press, Copyright 2000, Hardcover, 618 pages, ISBN: 0-9664401-1-0.
Does not include a version of Crystal Ball on CD.
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