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IN THIS ISSUE |
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WHAT'S NEW |
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Crystal Ball Office is Moving
Friday, November 9th, 2007, the Crystal Ball headquarters in downtown Denver, CO will be moving to a larger Oracle facility in the Denver Technology Center. Please update your records with the new contact information:
Oracle Crystal Ball Global Business Unit
7700 Technology Way
Denver, Colorado. 80237
Main phone: 303.334.4000
Main fax: 303.334.7598
The Crystal Ball Web site address is the same, but there is a new look and feel to the entire site! Stop by and check out the new features:
www.crystalball.com
One new feature is a Crystal Ball theme of the month. A new industry or application will be featured each month and highlighted on our Web page. This will include industry and application specific public seminars and forums, Web seminars, papers, articles, models, and more. Stay tuned for our first theme, Oil and Gas! If you have any suggestions or contributions, please feel free to contact us.
We look forward to working with you from our new location! Thank you for your continued support of Crystal Ball.
The Crystal Ball Global Business Unit
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Society for Petroleum Engineers Annual Conference
When: November 11-14, 2007
Where: Anaheim Convention Center in Anaheim, CA (800 West Katella Avenue)
Crystal Ball will be attending the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition (ATCE). This is the leading technical conference in the E&P world, bringing together emerging technologies, the latest innovations, leading-edge companies, and thousands of engineers, scientists, managers, and executives.
Crystal Ball will be located at booth number 1715.
Click here for more information.
Oracle Open World
Crystal Ball is looking forward to attending Oracle Open World, November 11-15, 2007 at the Moscone Center in San Francisco,
CA--the world's largest event dedicated to helping enterprises harness the power of information. Plan on attending the following Crystal Ball sessions:
Monday, Novermber 12th, 11:00 A.M. in Marriott Salon 5: Mike Pelstring, Senior Director of Engineering for the Motor Design Division at Seagate Technology presents, "Using Design for Six Sigma and Monte Carlo Simulation to Optimize Design Performance and Reliability."
Monday, November 12th, 11:00 A.M. in Marriott Salon 4: Lucie Trepanier presents, "Introduction to Hyperion Crystal Ball."
Monday, November 12th, 3:15 P.M. in Marriott Salon 6: Steve Hoye presents, "Portfolio Optimization in Oil and Gas: Are You Picking the Right Projects to Fund?"
Tuesday, November 13th, 12:15 P.M. in Marriott Salon 5: Jim Franklin presents, "Predictive Modeling: The Key to Effective EPM."
Tuesday, November 13th, 4:45 P.M. in Marriott Salon 5: Lucie Trepanier present, "Simulation and Optimization in New Product Launch Valuations."
Plan to stop by and see us. More information can be found here. |
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CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES |
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Six Sigma Portfolio Selection 
"Selecting Project Portfolios Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Optimization"
By Lawrence Goldman and Karl Luce
(Reprinted from Treasure Chest of Six Sigma Growth Methods, Tools, and Best Practices with permission from Prentice Hall Professional)
As a Six Sigma implementation matures, Champions are faced with the increasingly challenging task of selecting a portfolio of high-quality projects with a strong financial return. Selecting Six Sigma projects is a one-time decision, and comparing and selecting Six Sigma projects is a difficult task when large numbers of projects are dissimilar, complex, and potentially risky. Each project will be either financially successful or not, and the Six Sigma focus on savings and improved income remains a key consideration for every Champion and Six Sigma executive. If a project is not successful, the company runs the risk of incurring the loss of the initial investment and maybe even its faith in the benefits of Six Sigma.
Existing project selection techniques can help align projects to company strategies, shareholder value, and management metrics, but these approaches generally lack an assessment of the monetary risks related to individual projects. The goal of this article is to describe Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic optimization, an increasingly popular alternative technique for the financial justification of projects. The combination of simulation and optimization is a unique approach that provides Champions with a more granular, finance-based solution to portfolio analysis. Managers can enhance project portfolios to include the effects of uncertain costs, revenues, and resource usage, which most acknowledge but lack the ability to calculate.
This article uses Crystal Ball software to simulate the uncertainties in a project portfolio spreadsheet and to optimize the portfolio so as to increase value and decrease risk. The paper includes an aerospace success story and an extended case study example, which demonstrates in more detail the application of these techniques.
> View the entire reprinted article |
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TRAINING SCHEDULE
Intro and Advanced Crystal Ball
USA and CANADA
Boston, MA: Nov. 13-14
Phoenix, AZ: Nov. 13-14
Dallas, TX: Nov.
13-14
Washington, DC: Nov. 13-14
Houston, TX: Nov. 27-28
Portland, OR: Nov. 27-28
Montreal, QC: Nov. 28-29
Denver, CO: Nov. 28-29
Toronto, ON: Dec. 4-5
San Francisco, CA: Dec. 4-5
Raleigh, NC: Dec. 4-5
Albuquerque, NM: Dec. 4-5
Miami, FL: Dec. 11-12
Vancouver, BC: Dec. 11-12
Philadelphia, PA: Dec. 11-12
Washington, DC: Dec. 18-19
New York, NY: Dec. 18-19
San Diego, CA: Dec. 18-19
Louisville, KY: Jan. 8-9
New Orleans, LA: Jan. 15-16
Chicago, IL: Jan. 15-16
Baltimore, MD: Jan. 15-16
New York, NY: Jan. 23-24
Los Angeles, CA: Jan. 23-24
Indianapolis, IN: Jan. 23-24
Denver, CO: Jan. 29-30
Dallas, TX: Jan. 29-30
Boston, MA: Feb. 5-6
San Francisco, CA: Feb. 5-6
Seattle, WA: Feb. 12-13
Cedar Rapids, IA: Feb. 12-13
Rochester, NY: Feb. 12-13
Hartford, CT: Feb. 20-21
Toronto, ON: Feb. 20-21
Milwaukee, WI: Feb. 26-27
Washington, DC: Feb. 26-27
Pittsburgh, PA: Mar. 4-5
Minneapolis, MN: Mar 4-5
San Diego, CA: Mar. 4-5
King of Prussia, PA: Mar. 11-12
Tampa, FL: Mar. 11-12
Las Vegas, NV: Mar 11-12
Detroit, MI: Mar. 18-19
Kansas City, KS: Mar. 18-19
Raleigh, NC: Mar. 25-26
Salt Lake City, UT: Mar. 25-26
New York, NY: Mar. 25-26
EUROPE
London, England: Nov. 28-29
Paris, France: Dec. 12-13
LATIN AMERICA
Visit the Web site for updates
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Visit the Web site for updates
Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Houston, TX: Dec. 18-19
Dallas, TX: Feb. 11-12
Houston, TX: Feb. 12-13
Calgary, AB: Mar. 18-19
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
Toronto, ON: Dec. 6
Miami, FL: Dec. 13
Denver, CO: Jan. 31
Seattle, WA: Feb. 14
Introduction to Real Options
San Francisco, CA: Dec. 6
New York, NY: Jan. 25
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
Paris, France: Dec. 14
Washington, DC: Dec. 20
Pittsburgh, PA: Mar. 6
Suggest a training
date or location |
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SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition
November 11-14, 2007
Anaheim, CA
Winter Simulation Conference 2007
December 9-12, 2007
Washington, DC
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If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
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Software Tools for Managing Project Risk
Spreadsheet Modeling for  Business Decisions
By Hameed G. Nezhad, Ph.D.
2007, 8.5” x 11” binder with CD-ROM, 250 pages
ISBN 978-1-56726-203-2
A trial version Of Crystal Ball Software is included.
Discover the Tools Necessary to Improve Efficiency and Effectiveness of Your Project!
Effective risk management involves a clear understanding of the nature and uncertainty of risk,
as well as how to qualitatively and quantitatively assess risk. Software Tools for Managing Project Risk presents a step-by-step process
for using risk management software (including some easy-to-use Excel templates) as well as a
systematic approach to risk identification, risk modeling, risk impact assessment,
respond planning, and reporting.
Find out more information here.
Online Article and Model
Excel-based Tools for Lean Six Sigma: Crystal Ball and QI Macros
By Jay Arthur, QI Macros, and Larry Goldman, Crystal Ball
(Includes hospital emergency department example)
Methods and tools of Lean Six Sigma can help quantify and pinpoint non-value added delay, and then teams can figure out how best to eliminate the delay. With the QI Macros for Excel to gather and
analyze process performance data, and Crystal Ball to understand and predict performance, organizations
dedicated to process improvement have new, easy-to-use tools to analyze and accelerate flow. It not only
increases patient satisfaction, but also reduces errors and increases revenue.
Using the QI Macros, organizations can use existing data in Excel and easily measure the stability and
capability of current practices. Using Crystal Ball’s prediction capabilities, they can then change any one
of these parameters to reflect a potential process change, run the model, and evaluate the results. Best of
all, testing improvement scenarios using Crystal Ball costs a fraction of what it would cost to implement
any one of these solutions. When the benefits and consequences of the change have been analyzed, the
team can make an intelligent choice about how to implement the change and later use the QI Macros to
analyze the revised process and sustain the improvement.
Read the entire article.
Emergency Department Value Stream Map and Model
This model accompanies the article "Excel-based Tools for Lean Six Sigma: Crystal Ball and QI Macros," authored by Jay Arthur and Larry Goldman.
Download the Emergency Value Stream Map and Model by clicking this link.
White Paper
Quantifying Financial Risk in Business Cases
Michael Lionais CMA
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Source: 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
This paper discusses a methodology to quantify the financial risk inherent in a business case based upon the integrity of the
data upon which the financial estimates are based. The purpose of the methodology is to ensure that the decision-makers are
aware of the integrity of the data underlying their decision because if the data is potentially flawed, executives need to factor
this into the decision. Also, the procedure quantifies the data integrity, thereby reducing executives’ need to rely on their
own intuitive assessment of the data. Data Integrity assessments are used to determine the probability of exceeding the cost
estimate identified in the proposal and what the cost estimate is at a specific confidence level. In practice, this methodology
is used by the Chief Financial Officer for Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to challenge the reasonableness of cost estimates
prior to his attestation to the Government of Canada that the costs identified in the business case are reasonable.
> View the entire white paper
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CONFERENCE ROUNDUP |
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SPEAKING OPPORTUNITIES |
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These conferences have announced a call for speakers or opportunities for award entries. If you wish to submit a talk or award submission discussing Crystal Ball software in some aspect, and if that talk or award is accepted, please let us know. We are always willing to offer some form of support to our customers.
COM2008 Winnipeg
Conference of Metallurgists
August 24-27, 2008, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
http://www.metsoc.org/com2008/index.asp
Abstracts due: December 31, 2007
The Conference of Metallurgists, the premier annual event of the Metallurgical Society of the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum is returning to Winnipeg after an absence of 21 years. Like the 1987 Conference, the 2008 COM will offer an exciting technical program with international flavour, which is currently being developed under the guidance of Dr. Bill Caley of Dalhousie University in Halifax. In addition, participants will also enjoy the hospitality, sunshine and beautiful beaches the “Friendly Manitoba” is famous for.
Conference Theme:
The Organizing Committee, with the advice of its industry representatives, has selected the theme: Sustainable Practices in Metallurgy and Materials: Embracing the Future. Paper submissions should address the major topics that impact the future of the sector. Topics may include economic drivers, impacts of industry consolidation, development of new products, technological developments, manpower development, sustainability, trends in operations and productivity, and human health issues.
The Call for Papers is located at http://www.metsoc.org/com2008/technicalprogram.asp.
Lean Six Sigma & Process Improvement Summit
Unite Process Improvement With Your Business Strategy: Using Innovation & Advanced LSS To Achieve Crucial Business Goals
January 28 - 31, 2008 · Disney’s Contemporary Resort and Convention Center, Orlando, FL
http://www.iqpcevents.com/ShowEvent.aspx?id=43892&details=43968
The entry deadline for the Process Excellence Awards (formerly Six Sigma Excellence Awards) has been extended to
November 16th 2007.
Winners will be announced at the Awards Ceremony
and Gala Dinner on January 29th 2008, Disney Contemporary Resort, Orlando.
The Process Excellence Awards recognize best practice
in the Lean Six Sigma & Process Improvement community.
More information can be found here.
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CBUG DISCUSSIONS |
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The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion. |
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November 8, 2007
