January, 2006 | Issue 15 | www.crystalball.com
If you cannot read this newsletter, you can view it online at
http://www.crystalball.com/newsletters/acadnews15.html


Happy New Year!

It's a new year, which calls for new people and new titles. I am now the Academic Marketing Manager and am busy working on exciting changes for the Academic Department in 2006. Please feel free to contact me if you would like to include Crystal Ball in a publication or would like more information on how to incorporate Crystal Ball into your curriculum.

Tracy Manchego and Jeff Floit are the Academic Sales Managers and will continue to assist you with your current licenses and future purchases. They can be reached at education@crystalball.com

As always, we appreciate your feedback. Please continue to let us know how we can better meet your academic needs through our software, newsletter, web site, etc.

I'm looking forward to working with you in 2006.

Amy Dougan
Decisioneering Academic Marketing Manager
adougan@crystalball.com
 

 IN THIS ISSUE


What’s New in the Academic Program
New Schools, Web Seminars

Crystal Ball User Conference

New Textbooks

DFSS Statistics

Lean Six Sigma Statistics

Designing Strategic Cost Systems

Speaking Opportunities




New Risk Resources
Papers, Reviews, Tips and More

CBUG Discussions

Informational Seminars


Decisioneering® Calendar

Subscription Information

 
 WHAT'S NEW


The latest information concerning the Decisioneering Academic Program is always available at: http://www.crystalball.com/academic/.



WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM

New Institutions and Schools from October 2005 to Present

United States

College of the Mainland

Corban College

Cuyamaca College

Metropolitan State University

Tidewater Community College

Walden University

Worcester Polytechnic Institute


International

Bogazici University

Brunel University

Cass Business School

Charmers University of Technology

Eastern Mediterranean University

Fachhochschule Südwestfalen

Freie Universität Berlin

Huelva University

Institute of South East Asian Studies

John Moores University

Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

Malaysian University Science & Technology

Melbourne Business School

National Chung Hsing University

Queen Mary, University of London

Royal Veterinary College

Sheffield University

Technical University Eindhoven, Netherlands

Technical University Slovakia

Universidad de Cantabria

Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata

University College of London

University Commerciale Luigi Bocconi

University of  Innsbruck

University of Adelaide

University of Antwerp Management School

University of Applied Sciences Berne

University of Cologne

University of Indonesia

University of Laval

University of Limerick

University of Miskolc

University of Muenster

University of Munich

University of Oxford

University of Paderborn

University of Szczecin

Uppsala University

These schools join the more than 550 domestic and international institutions that are already members of the Academic Program. Welcome!



UPCOMING WEB SEMINARS



Attend the 2006 Crystal Ball User Conference as a Presenter!

Time is running out on our call for papers for this year's Crystal Ball User Conference, held May 1-3 at the Westin Tabor Center in Denver, Colorado! Abstracts for papers and workshops are due by January 27!

We're looking for Crystal Ball users who want to present a 45-minute case study or a 90-minute workshop on their area of expertise. Do you have an innovative application of Crystal Ball or a compelling success story you'd like to share with other professors or professionals?

Speaker benefits include direct feedback from other simulation modelers, an introduction to new techniques and ideas, and wide exposure of your knowledge and experience. Just as important, we'll waive your fees for the entire conference!

> Learn more and request to be a speaker or workshop presenter

> View papers from last year's conference

Contact us at cbuc@crystalball.com about our academic pricing!

"...you leave the conference with a sense that almost any business problem can be modeled and made more realistic using Crystal Ball models."
   -- Aaren Ekelund, IntelliGlobe Aps, 2004 user conference attendee

Click here to register today!

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NEW TEXTBOOKS
 


Design for Six Sigma
Statistics

By Andrew Sleeper
sleeper book

 

Published by McGraw-Hill Professional

Copyright 2005
Hardbound, 854 pp.
ISBN: 0071451625

 

Design for Six Sigma Statistics meticulously details 59 mathematical procedures for executing DFSS programs, isolating and identifying problems, and solving them before the actual product launch. More than an introduction to statistical concepts and methods, this comprehensive resource offers real-world case studies and step-by-step MINITAB instruction for performing:

  • DFSS Design of Experiments
  • Measuring Process Capability
  • Statistical Tolerancing in DFSS
  • DFSS Techniques within the supply chain

The author discusses Monte Carlo simulation and Crystal Ball in two sections of the textbook.

In the first section, he covers a fuel injector flow example, where simulation follows a Design of Experiments begun in MINITAB. In the second, longer section, the author discusses in greater detail how simulation is used to predict the variation caused by component tolerances in an electrical switch. Crystal Ball software is not packaged with this textbook.

> Learn more about this textbook
> Order this textbook from Amazon.com



  Lean Six Sigma Statistics

By Alastair Muir

  Published by

 McGraw-Hill Professional

Copyright 2006

hardbound, 448 pp

ISBN: 0071445854

 
DECISIONEERING CALENDAR
 


Training 2006

Suggest a training
date or location

Crystal Ball Classes
Minneapolis, MN: Jan 24-25
Austin, TX: Jan 25-26
King of Prussia, PA (Philadelphia): Jan. 31-Feb.1

Seattle, WA: Feb. 1-2
San Francisco, CA: Feb. 7-8
Frankfurt, Germany: Feb. 8-9
Dallas, TX: Feb. 14-15
Jacksonville, FL: Feb. 14-15
Denver, CO: Feb. 16-17
London, England: Feb. 16-17
Chicago, IL: Feb. 22-23
Rochester, NY: Feb. 22-23
Atlanta, GA: Feb. 28-Mar. 1

Washington, DC: Mar. 7-8
St. Louis, MO: Mar. 9-10
Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Mar. 14-15
Montreal, Canada: Mar. 14-15
Memphis, TN: Mar. 14-15
Santiago, Chile: Mar. 15-16
Paris, France: Mar. 21-22
Pittsburgh, PA: Mar. 21-22
Denver, CO: Mar. 21-22
New York City, NY: Mar. 28-19
London, England: Mar. 29-30

Cincinnati, OH: April 4-5
Calgary, Canada: April 4-5
Boston, MA: April 4-5
King of Prussia, PA: April 11-12
Las Vegas, NV: April 11-12
London, England: April 12-13
Raleigh, NC: April 19-20
Seattle, WA: April 19-20
San Diego, CA: April 19-20
Austin, TX: April 25-26
St. Louis, MO: April 25-26
Boise, ID: April 26-27
Denver, CO: April 27-28

Denver, CO: May 4-5
New York, NY: May 9-10
Chicago, IL: May 16-17
Dallas, TX: May 16-17
Frankfurt, Germany: May 17-18
San Francisco, CA: May 23-24
Minneapolis, MN: May 23-24
London, England: May 23-24
Toronto, Canada: May 31-June 1
Detroit, MI: May 31- June 1

Washington, DC: June 6-7
Salt Lake City, UT: June 6-7
Paris, France: June 6-7
Amsterdam, The Netherlands: June 7-8
Los Angeles, CA: June 13-14
King of Prussia, PA: June 13-14
Kansas City, MO: June 19-20
Denver, CO: June 20-21
London, England: June 20-21
New York, NY: June 27-28

Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Calgary, Canada: Feb. 7-8
Aberdeen, Scotland: Mar. 1-2
Houston, TX: Mar. 28-29
Calgary, Canada: April 6-7
Houston, TX: May 16-17
Houston, TX: June 28-29
Aberdeen, Scotland: June 28-29

Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
Dallas, TX: Feb. 16
Washington, DC: Mar. 9
King of Prussia, PA: April 13
Chicago, IL: May 18
Washington, DC: June 8
London, England: June 22

Introduction to Real Options
San Francisco, CA: Feb. 9
Pittsburgh, PA: Mar. 23
New York City, NY: Mar. 30
Austin, TX: April 27
San Francisco, CA: May 25
New York, NY: June 29

Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
Minneapolis, MN: Jan. 26
Denver, CO: Mar. 23
Cincinnati, OH: April 6
New York, NY: May 11
London, England: May 25
Denver, CO: June 22

Suggest a training
date or location

 

APPEARANCES

 

7th Annual Six Sigma Summit 2006
January 24-25,
Wyndham Miami Beach Resort ,
Miami Beach, FL

2006 ASQ Six Sigma Conference
February 6-7,
Hyatt Grand Champions Resort,
Palm Springs, CA


YOUR FEEDBACK

If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
 
SUBSCRIPTION INFO

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The marriage between Lean Manufacturing and Six Sigma has  proven to be a powerful tool for cutting waste and improving the organization’s operations. This book provides six sigma practitioners with a statistical guide for solving problems they may encounter in implementing and managing Lean Six Sigma programs.

The book draws it examples from all sectors of business ranging from financial to manufacturing, providing the reader with a wealth of case studies and numerous worked out equations that are designed to facilitate the full potential of any Lean Six Sigma project.

Offering clear, logical, step-by-step guidance, Lean Six Sigma Statistics demonstrates how to tweak any Lean Six Sigma project so it works faster and more efficiently. The guide clarifies:

  • Identifying delay time in processes
  • Setting realistic execution times
  • Verifying the Vital Xs influencing delay time
  • Targeting process areas ripe for lean techniques

In addition to its many tools, cases, and insights, this book also includes an entire appendix dedicated to Crystal Ball and Monte Carlo simulation. The appendix contains two examples, cycle time for insurance policy underwriting and financial risk of medical claim payments, and walks the reader through the complete modeling and analysis process. Does not include an Edition of Crystal Ball software.

> Learn more about this textbook

> Visit Alastair Muir's Consultants' Corner listing


book cover Designing Strategic Cost Systems:

How to Unleash the Power of Cost Information


By Lianabel Oliver, MBA, CPA, CMA
Published
John Wiley & Sons
Copyright 2004
ISBN: 0471653586

The long-term survival of a company is dependent on how knowledgeable its controllers and senior managers are about its costs. Do the costs accurately reflect the resources consumed by the business processes? Can the cost information generated by its financial systems be trusted to make key management decisions? In Designing Strategic Cost Systems, recognized business planning and cost management expert Lianabel Oliver provides a comprehensive and accessible road map for the design, development, and implementation of an effective and competitive strategic cost system.

Designing Strategic Cost Systems offers a multidisciplinary roadmap for the design, development, and implementation of a strategic cost system. The textbook shows how to design a cost system to become a more effective decision-making tool and a source of competitive advantage for the organization. It describes how to structure a cost systems design project and discuss the issues that should be addressed up front from a management, operations, and costing perspective.

The book includes an entire appendix dedicated to the use of Monte Carlo simulation to set standards. Crystal Ball is featured in an example that examines standards involved with the manufacture of plastic products. No version of Crystal Ball software is included with this textbook.

> Learn more about this textbook

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 SPEAKING OPPORTUNITIES

CALL FOR SPEAKERS/PAPERS FOR TWO EVENTS SPONSORED BY THE INFORMS SIMULATION SOCIETY
 
Operational Research Society (UK) Simulation Study Group 3rd Simulation Workshop (SW06)
 
The deadline for submitting papers for the 3rd biennial Simulation Workshop is October 28.  The conference itself will be held 28-29 March 2006 at the Ashford Hill Conference Center, close to Royal Leamington Spa in the West Midlands region of England (London 1 hour, Birmingham 30 minutes).  Nearby are Stratford-upon-Avon (Shakespeare's birthplace) and Warwick's Medieval Castle.

The biennial Operational Research Society Simulation Workshop brings together practitioners and academics working in the field of discrete-event simulation.  It provides an opportunity to exchange ideas on the current and future state-of-the-art in simulation and
modeling.  Due to the success of previous workshops, SW06 is moving to a new location.

Program: The workshop will include plenary sessions, special focus streams and a PhD poster session.  Contributions to the technical program are sought in the following areas, although papers in any area of discrete-event simulation will be considered. All submissions will be peer reviewed.  Accepted papers will be published in the conference proceedings and will be presented at the conference.  Presentations will be given 30 minutes including time for questions.

> Visit http://www.theorsociety.com/, then select SW06 for more information about the workshop

INFORMS Hong Kong

The INFORMS International meeting in Hong Kong, China will be held on June 25-28, 2006.  The meeting will be hosted at Sheraton Hong Kong Hotel & Towers.   See http://www.informs.org/Conf/Hongkong06/.

The organizers invite you to participate by organizing a session (chairing with four speakers spanning 90 minutes), or by presenting a paper.  Several people have already indicated interest, there is still room for more!  Please respond via e-mail whether you would be interested in organizing a session or just submission of abstract for this conference.

Although the last day to submit your abstract is not until January 15, 2006, to submit individual abstracts to the invited sessions requires an invitation from the session or cluster chair, please click on abstract submission on conference web site for details.

Please feel free to contact the organizers if you require further information:
Stephen Chick (stephen.chick@insead.edu) and Hong Wan (hwan@purdue.edu)

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 NEW RISK RESOURCES


The following is a list of resources that have been added to the Decisioneering Web site since the last issue of this newsletter.

PAPERS & ARTICLES

Crystal Ball in the Rain Forest
By John Reid, Conservation Strategy Fund

Evolución Del Saldo Remanente De Una Renta Unitaria Cierta Cuando Los Rendimientos Son Aleatorios Bajo Distintos Modelos De Riesgo
By Evaristo Diz, E. Diz Actuarial Services and Consulting (this is a Spanish-language paper)

On Bayesian Decision Analysis for Evaluating Alternative Actions at Contaminated Sites
Jenny Norrman, Swedish Geotechnical Institute

Space Systems Cost Risk Handbook:

Applying the Best Practices in Cost Risk Analysis to Space System Cost Estimates

Monte Carlo Simulation in Capital Investment
Scott Slinker, CEO, Forecourt Communications Group, Inc.

Egypt after the Multi-Fiber Arrangement: Global Apparel and Textile Supply Chains as a Route for Industrial Upgrading
Dan Magder, Financial Analyst, Capital One

"Gaming Reality,"  ORMS Today

Biennial survey of discrete-event simulation software tools.

James J. Swain

 

EXAMPLE MODELS


Lean Six Sigma Examples

Model 1: Cycle Time for Insurance Policy Underwriting

Model 2: Financial Impact of Process Risk - Medical Claim payments

Download one or both of these models from Alastair Muir's Web site

 

CB & RISK ANALYSIS TIPS (from the Tomorrow's Forecast newsletter)

How to use data in your Crystal Ball model  (Issue #169)

Crystal Ball: Capability Metrics  (Issue #169)

Activating Process Capability Features and Split-view Charting  (Issue #166)

References Available With Crystal Ball 7  (Issue #167)

How to focus on a particular range of forecast results  (Issue #165)

The Binomial Process (2 of 2)  (Issue #164)

Setting your forecast chart preferences to display all trials  (Issue #163)

 

CONFERENCE ROUNDUP

Our roundup is a list of risk-related events that we publish on a continuing basis for the benefit of our customers and Web site visitors.

>> Click here for the entire list of 2006 events

 

NEWSLETTER ARCHIVE

All previous issues of Tomorrow's Forecast and The Academic Forecast are available in our newsletter archive.

> Click here to visit the archive


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 CBUG DISCUSSIONS


CBUG DISCUSSIONS

The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software. You can visit CBUG and register to become a member through the Decisioneering Web site.

> Click here to visit CBUG and register to become a member

PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the site every so often to view discussion.



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 INFORMATIONAL SEMINARS


Invite Us to Your Campus!

As part of our educational outreach program, Decisioneering sends representatives to campuses to present informational seminars or "brown-bag lunches" on the importance of risk analysis. What better way to have students and faculty learn about Monte Carlo simulation, spreadsheet risk analysis, and the Crystal Ball line of software tools?

Past school visits have included University of Wisconsin-Madison, Westminster College, Colorado School of Mines, University of Colorado and Purdue University. Our goal for this program is to help introduce, in one or two hours, the basic principles of spreadsheet risk analysis and how it can be used by business professionals. Our seminars can be adapted to fit your specific schedule and program.

For more information, contact our Academic Marketing Manager at 800.289.2550 (in US), +1 303.534.1515, or education@crystalball.com.


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