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Happy New Year!
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IN THIS ISSUE |
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WHAT'S NEW |
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Do You Deserve a Crystal Ball Monte Carlo Award?
As a Crystal Ball software user, you provide the analytical insights that help your company achieve success. That effort deserves recognition. For the first time, Decisioneering is hosting the Crystal Ball Monte Carlo Awards, better known as “The Monties.”
 The Monties recognize the outstanding and innovative usage of Crystal Ball software. Awards will be given in six categories: Best Technical Application, Best Financial Application, Most Innovative Application, Most Unusual Application, Best Student/Academic Project and Lifetime Achievement Award. Each award nomination will be judged by a panel of internal and external experts.
What’s in it for you?
All finalists will receive an award and framed certificate, and winners will receive an impressive award trophy to display in their office. The winner of the Best Student/Academic Project Monte will also receive a $500 scholarship!
Additionally, award recipients and their submissions will be showcased by Decisioneering throughout the year. This means international recognition and valuable exposure for your achievements and for your organization's use of innovative tools and techniques.
How do you apply?
To submit your nomination for any 2007 Monte award, simply go to our awards home page and download and complete the award submission form (a Microsoft® PowerPoint® presentation). To submit the presentation or for any questions, e-mail us at cbucawards@crystalball.com.
Remember to submit prior to February 15, 2007, and good luck!
Our Call for Speakers Continues
> Interested in presenting a paper or workshop at the conference? Visit our conference site to learn more
2007 User Conference Registration is Open!
> Conference registration is now open! Register today and take advantage of our early bird discount!
Decisioneering is a proud sponsor of:
IQPC Lean and Six Sigma for Government 2007
February 26-28, 2007, Hilton Alexandria Mark Center, Alexandria, VA
http://www.iqpc.com/us/sixsigmagov/dec (click this link for a 10% show discount)
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Conferencia latinoamericana 2007 de usuarios Crystal Ball en Cartagena, Colombia
Marzo 8-9, 2007, en Cartagena, Colombia
 ¡Regístrese ahora! Decisioneering esta complacido en anunciar la primera conferencia latinoamericana de Crystal Ball. Será un evento de dos días enfocado al uso de Crystal Ball en distintos sectores.
La conferencia incluirá dos días de presentaciones y minuciosos talleres, dictados por líderes de la industria y expertos de Crystal Ball. El costo del evento es de $395 dólares e incluye todas las sesiones, talleres, desayunos, almuerzos, snaks y un CD con los materiales y presentaciones de la conferencia. Para recibir un descuento de grupo solamente se requiere que dos o más personas de su compañía asistan. El precio por persona será de $295 dólares.
> Aprenda más sobre la conferencia Latinamericana de Crystal Ball 2007!
London Public Seminar: Using Modelling and Simulation to Calculate Value at Risk (VaR)
When: January 31, 2007 , 12.30 PM GMT
Where: London, UK
Join us for a free Crystal Ball software Public Seminar. This half-day event will feature two speakers who will teach attendees new applications and best practices for using Crystal Ball software in improving calculations of Value at Risk (VaR).
Discussion topics at this educational event include:
- Monte Carlo simulation for modelling of the residual value positions of operating lease assets, where forecasts of the terminating asset values were largely regression-based,
- The difference between traditional random-walk Monte Carlo simulation from the Monte Carlo sampling of regression functions,
- Utilisation of ‘mixture distributions’ to handle forecast uncertainty and to integrate multiple forecasts,
- VaR as a measure for RV risk, and
- Analytic checks of variance for simulation-based solutions.
> Learn more about this Public Seminar and register today!
 Upcoming Web Seminars
(1) Financial Risk Analysis: “Know/No Surprises”:
Seven fundamental spreadsheet models CFOs can really use to improve their credibility and reduce the number of surprises in their business.
Date: Thursday, January 18, 2007
Time: 9:00 am Mountain Standard Time
Risk is good. Without risk, there would be no opportunity for profit. The trick is to understand and quantify uncertainty so that you can take advantage of the upside (profit) and minimize the downside risk (loss). Your advantage is when you do this better and faster than anyone else.
Please join Jim Franklin, CEO of Decisioneering Inc., and learn how risk management techniques like Monte Carlo simulation and optimization can give you that advantage.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
(2) Probabilistic Environmental Risk Assessment of Pesticides
Date: Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Time: 3:00 pm GMT Standard Time (London), corresponding to 10:00 am Eastern Standard Time (New York)
There is increasing interest in Europe in the probabilistic risk assessment of pesticides to help reduce reliance on overly conservative combinations of worst case exposure and toxicity values. Initiatives such as EUFRAM and WEBFRAM have provided guidance and tools for performing such risk assessments.
Join Mark Crane, Director of the environmental consultancy Watts & Crane Associates (www.wfcenvironment.co.uk), and learn how pesticide risk assessment models developed for the European Union can incorporate uncertainty and variability to provide a greater understanding of potential pesticide risks.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
> View other upcoming and recorded Web seminars
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CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES |
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 WHITE PAPER:
Monte Carlo Simulation Process in Reliability and Maintenance
By Alberto G Landeaux, ISC Gerencia de Activos, Venezuela
ABSTRACT
Simulation is based on the statistical concept that when the number of trials of an experiment approaches infinity, the average of the experiment's outcome is equivalent to the real value of variable under study. In the Reliability Block Diagrams, the application of the Monte Carlo method is useful to observe the dynamic behavior of a system with variation in the set of inputs. Performing an infinite number of simulations is impossible; therefore, an appropriate number of iterations must be estimated to reach feasible results with an acceptable level of error.
The numerical result for R(t) can be obtained by computing the probability distribution formula with the specified parameters values and t. In general, analytical methods are quick and accurate, but they are feasible only if there are no complex dependencies. The uncertainty is an inherent factor in every system and must be quantified to make decisions with a better understanding of the system.
> Read the entire white paper
CASE STUDY:
Simulation and Cycle Time Reduction: Misys Healthcare Systems
 Misys Healthcare Systems used simulation to validate that a new process for software implementation will result in a 50% cycle time reduction and accelerated revenue recognition.
This healthcare software company used Lean Six Sigma and Crystal Ball software to redesign the lengthy installation and implementation cycle time of their enterprise software. The resulting Crystal Ball software cycle time forecast proved that the proposed process solution was viable and reinforced management’s confidence in the new process design.
> Read the entire success story
WHITE PAPER:
Simulation of a Biological Assay
Harold J. Reed, Sr. Staff Engineer, Syngenta
Source: The 2006 Crystal Ball User Conference
ABSTRACT
A complex biological assay is used to check the quality of an agricultural product. In order to determine how much of the failure rate was due to the process and how much was due to the biological assay, a multi-layer Monte Carlo model of the
assay was developed. This model demonstrated that many of the failures were due to the assay and led to a modification of
the way the assay was run.
> Read the entire article
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CRYSTAL BALL® EVENTS
Public Seminar:
Using Modelling and Simulation to Calculate Value at Risk (VaR)
January 31, 2007
London, UK
Public Seminar:
Business Value Simulations on Basel II Metrics
February 5, 2007
Frankfurt, Germany
2007 Latin America Crystal Ball User Conference
March 8-9, 2007
Cartagena, Colombia
2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
May 21-23, 2007
Denver, Colorado
TRAINING SCHEDULE
Crystal Ball Classes
WESTERN US / CANADA
Anaheim, CA: Jan. 23-24
Denver, CO: Jan. 30-31
Seattle, WA: Feb. 7-8
Phoenix, AZ: Feb. 13-14
San Francisco, CA: Feb. 27-28
Denver, CO: Feb. 27-28
San Diego, CA: Mar. 6-7
Santa Fe, NM: Mar. 13-14
Denver, CO: Mar. 27-28
CENTRAL US / CANADA
Memphis, TN: Jan. 17-18
Indianapolis, IN: Jan. 17-18
Minneapolis, MN: Jan. 23-24
Dallas, TX: Feb. 6-7
St. Louis, MO: Feb. 13-14
Cincinnati, OH: Feb. 13-14
Atlanta, GA: Feb. 21-22
Des Moines, IA: Feb. 21-22
Austin, TX: Mar. 6-7
Chicago, IL: Mar. 6-7
Detroit, MI: Mar. 21-22
EASTERN US / CANADA
Boston, MA: Jan. 17-18
King of Prussia, PA: Jan. 23-24
New York City, NY: Jan. 30-31
Toronto, Canada: Feb. 6-7
Raleigh, NC: Feb. 7-8
Hartford, CT: Feb. 21-22
New York City, NY: Feb. 27-28
Rochester, NY: Mar. 13-14
King of Prussia, PA: Mar. 21-22
Washington, DC: Mar. 21-22
New York City, NY: Mar. 27-28
EUROPE
Frankfurt, Germany: Feb. 6-7
London, UK: Feb. 13-14
London, UK: Mar. 6-7
LATIN AMERICA
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Manila, Philippines: Feb. 12-13
Bangkok, Thailand: Mar. 12-13
Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Houston, TX: Jan. 31-Feb 1
Calgary, Canada: Mar. 13-14
Aberdeen, Scotland: Mar. 14-15
Houston, TX: Mar. 28-29
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
Denver, CO: Feb. 1
London, UK: Feb. 15
San Diego, CA: Mar. 8
Washington, DC: Mar. 23
Introduction to Real Options
King of Prussia, PA: Jan. 25
Frankfurt, Germany: Feb. 8
Denver, CO: Mar. 1
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
Minneapolis, MN: Jan. 25
New York, NY: Mar. 1
London, UK: Mar. 8
Denver, CO: Mar. 29
Suggest a training
date or location
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Design for Lean Six Sigma 2007
January 15-17
New Orleans, LA
IQPC 8th Annual Six Sigma Summit
January 22-25
Miami, FL
ASQ 2007 Six Sigma Conference
February 12-13
Phoenix, AZ
Forecasting Summit 2007
February 12-14
Orlando, FL
2007 SME Annual Meeting & Exhibit
February 25-28,
Denver, CO
Lean and Six Sigma for Government
February 26-28
Alexandria, VA
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If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
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Tomorrow's Forecast is an online production of Decisioneering, Inc. Newsletters are e-mailed to subscribers near the end of the first and third weeks of the month.
This e-mail newsletter is sent only to those individuals who either:
(1) Subscribed at our Web site, a training course, or a tradeshow, or
(2) Downloaded software from our Web site and requested more Decisioneering news.
To Subscribe
Subscriptions to Tomorrow's Forecast are FREE. Click here to subscribe.
To Unsubscribe
To unsubscribe, simply reply to the newsletter with the word 'UNSUBSCRIBE' as the subject of the e-mail. PLEASE leave the body of the message as you received it.
If the e-mail address from which you are replying is different than the one to which this e-mail was sent, please include your original e-mail address.
AOL subscribers: Please state your name in the body of the message.
You can also visit our Web site and follow the unsubscribe directions.
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CB TIP:
Using Hot Keys
Are you a Ctrl-S kind of person or a File > Save person?
If you’re the former, then you probably like to use hot keys to speed up your work. Crystal Ball software provides over 80 Alt-key combinations that let you execute a variety of commands without using your mouse. In Crystal Ball software, you will find:
- Define menu commands (shown in the figure below)
- Run menu commands
- Analyze menu commands
- Help menu commands
- General chart menu commands
- Assumption-specific chart menu commands
- Forecast-specific chart menu commands
- Overlay-specific chart menu commands
- Sensitivity-specific chart menu commands
- Trend-specific chart menu commands
The Crystal Ball Reference Manual, available in PDF format with your software installation, shows all the above hot keys and more. You can access the manual either from within Crystal Ball software through the Help > Crystal Ball > User Manuals option, or from outside Crystal Ball software through Start > All Programs > Crystal Ball 7 > Documentation.
Share a comment, risk analysis tip or a new CB Tip with your fellow Crystal Ball software users! Send your contribution to newsletter@crystalball.com.
> Previously published tips and techniques
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CONFERENCE ROUNDUP |
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Our roundup is a list of risk-related events that we publish in the first newsletter of each month. We highlight the events of the next month to give you enough lead time to register for any that interest you.
February 2007
International Modeling and Simulation Multiconference 2007 (IMSMO7)
The Society for Modeling and Simulation International
February 8 -10, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Buenos Aires Sheraton Hotel and Convention Center
http://www.lsis.org/imsm07/
ASQ's 2005 Six Sigma Conference 
American Society for Quality (ASQ)
February 12-13, Phoenix, AZ
Pointe Hilton Tapatio Cliffs Resort
http://www.asq.org/conferences/six-sigma/index.html
Forecasting Summit 2007
February 12-14, Orlando, FL
Disney's Board Walk Inn
http://www.forecasting-summit.com/
PARMA Conference
Public Agency Risk Managers Association (PARMA)
February 13-16, Monterey, California
http://www.parma.com
2007 SME Annual Meeting & Exhibit
Society for Mining, Metallurgy and Exploration
February 25-28, Denver, CO
Colorado Convention Center
http://www.smenet.org/meetings/annualmeeting2007/index.cfm
IQPC Lean and Six Sigma for Government 2007
International Quality & productivity Center
February 26-28, Alexandria, VA
Hilton Alexandria Mark Center
http://www.iqpc.com/us/sixsigmagov/dec
> Visit our Web site for the entire list of events (or to suggest an event for us to include)
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SPEAKING OPPORTUNITIES |
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These conferences have announced a call for speakers. If you wish to submit a talk that discusses Crystal Ball software in some aspect, and if that talk is accepted, please let us know. We are always willing to offer some form of support to our customers.
2007 FMA Annual Meeting (Financial Management Association)
October 17-20, 2007
Due date: January 16, 2007
http://www.fma.org/Orlando/OrlandoCall.pdf
SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition
November
11-14, 2007, Anaheim, CA
Due date: February 26, 2007 http://www.spe.org/spe/jsp/meetingcallforpapers/0,2457,1104_1551_5596185_5571631,00.html
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CBUG DISCUSSIONS |
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The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion.
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Copyright (c) 2007 Decisioneering, Inc. "Decisioneering" and "Crystal Ball" are registered trademarks of Decisioneering, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Microsoft and PowerPoint are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.
Yahoo! is a registered trademark of Yahoo! Inc.
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January 11, 2007
