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WHAT'S NEW |
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Hyperion to Acquire Decisioneering
Hyperion Leads Business Performance Management Market with Integration of End-User
Oriented Predictive Analytic Solution for Strategic Decision Making
 SANTA CLARA, Calif., January 23, 2007 – Hyperion (Nasdaq Global Select: HYSL), the global
leader in Business Performance Management (BPM) software, today announced it has signed a
definitive agreement to acquire Decisioneering, a privately held decision analysis software and
solutions company headquartered in Denver, Colorado. Hyperion will operate Decisioneering as a
stand-alone Hyperion business unit.
Business Performance Management today requires predictive analytic applications that enable
businesses to make decisions that maximize success while mitigating risk and understanding
uncertainty. Decisioneering’s award-winning software, Crystal Ball, is the industry-leading
predictive analytics, simulation and modeling tool built for business users. Crystal Ball includes a
full suite of Microsoft Excel-based predictive analytic applications that are easy to use and
implement. This acquisition of Decisioneering will allow Hyperion to integrate risk management
more deeply into its solutions that automate the business management cycle.
> Read more and view the entire press release
> Learn about how this acquisition affects Decisioneering's customers
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Frankfurt Public Seminar: Business Value Simulations on Basel II Metrics
When: Monday, February 5, 2007, 12.30 PM GMT
Where: Frankfurt, Germany
Language: This seminar will be held part in English and part in German
Join us for a free Crystal Ball Public Seminar. This half-day event will feature two speakers who will teach attendees new applications and best practices for using Crystal Ball on Basel II Metrics. Discussion topics at this free educational event include:
- Data quality metrics in the context of Basel II - completeness and consistency
- Financial metrics in the context of credit risk - PD, LGD, EAD
- Benefits and costs to be identified to enable prioritisation and examination of DQ measures on an ROI basis
- Data quality measurements at critical points and the influence on the components of risk
- Crystal Ball As-Is and To-Be scenarios and the effects on various success factors such as capital requirement, ROI and cash flow
- Building a strong business case to support project proposals
> Learn more about this Public Seminar and register today!
2007 Crystal Ball User Conference -
Call for Papers and Workshops Ends on January 31
 The 2007 annual Crystal Ball User Conference will be held on May 21-23 in Denver, Colorado, USA. The heart and soul of our annual conference is user participation. We invite you to play an important role in this year's conference and to share your knowledge with the user community by submitting a proposal for participation.
Do you have a compelling case study you would like to share with the Crystal Ball software community? If you've ever wanted to make a Crystal Ball-based presentation, this event is the place to highlight your expertise and solicit feedback from professional analysts and risk executives.
> Visit our Web site for more details and to submit your abstract before the end of day, January 31!
> Learn more about the 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
 Upcoming Web Seminars
(1) "Power Asset Evaluations: Challenges in Dealing with Uncertainty"
Date: Tuesday, February 6, 2006
Time: 9:00 AM, Mountain Standard Time (Denver)
Power assets present modeling challenges at every stage of their management – from development to operational performance. Good understanding and quantification of risks is paramount to avoiding unpleasant bottom line surprises. Simulation analysis of two separate gas fired power generation plants will be presented – the first one at the development and the second one at the operational stage.
Please join Andrei Smilenov, Director Analysis and Planning at NiSource Inc. and learn how to identify the main sources of uncertainty and their impact on financial results.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
(2) "Forecasting Oil & Gas Production for Short-Term Planning"
Date: Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Time: 8:00 AM, Mountain Standard Time (Denver)
How do you convince management that they want more than just a number? Please join Michelle LaPoint, Business Planning Engineer for Chevron's GOM Deepwater Producing Operations Group, to hear how a major Oil & Gas company has made Monte Carlo analysis part of the way they work.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
> View other upcoming and recorded Web seminars
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CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES |
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PAPER:
 "Weather Hedging in the Gas Industry: A Teaching Tool in Risk Management"
Jirí Hnilica, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Prague University of Economics
Source: Published by The Journal Of The World Association For Case Method Research & Application.
Volume XVIII, Issue No. 1, March 2006, pg. 52 - 60. ISSN 1554-7752
Abstract
Stredoceská plynárenská, a.s. is a joint-stock company distributing gas in the Czech Republic for more than 150 years. Recently, the company has increased the environment-friendly gas delivery percentage of overall energy use in Central Bohemia. More than 70% of the region's population has access to gas energy. The company’s Risk Manager (RM) knows that the gas market in the Czech Republic is going to change in 2007, possibly posing difficulties for the company. Current heavy governmental regulation, creating low competition not only in the Czech Republic but also in all of Europe, is slated to be phased out fully under the European Union regulations. This will result in opening the Czech market to competition from other countries.
A major risk affecting company business is related to the weather, a risk that is currently poorly managed by the company. Before the RM can bring this risk to management’s attention, he needs to clearly identify and measure it. He believes that controlling this risk could provide a competitive advantage to the company. The RM knows that gas purchases are related to temperature fluctuations and that the increasing proportion of residential sales intensifies the company’s risk exposure to weather caprices. Obviously, the colder it gets, the greater the need for natural gas heating. The RM wants to know how sensitive gas sales are to temperature changes to allow him to create a weather-related hedge and make this part of the company’s risk management.
> Read the entire paper
WEB SEMINAR:
Supply Chain Management: The Inventory Question
How much inventory is the right amount? In a time of faster product lifecycles (and thus faster obsolescence), rising interest rates, and higher expectations from customers and investors alike, this question is increasingly important.
Fundamentally, inventory must be held to buffer against uncertainty in supply, production, and demand. There is no shortage of approaches to inventory decisions, though many rely on (over)simplifying assumptions. For example- lead times, quality, batch sizes, yields, and/or shipments are assumed to be known with certainty. In reality, each of these may have variability, and therefore it is important that decision makers utilize methods that include variation (i.e. Monte Carlo simulation).
Please join Jonathan Fleck of Decisioneering, Inc. and learn how Crystal Ball software can be used to understand supply chain management, inventory choices, and variability.
> View this recorded Web seminar
WEB SEMINAR:
Financial Risk Analysis: “Know/No Surprises”: Seven fundamental spreadsheet models CFOs can really use to improve their credibility and reduce the number of surprises in their business.
Risk is good. Without risk, there would be no opportunity for profit. The trick is to understand and quantify uncertainty so that you can take advantage of the upside (profit) and minimize the downside risk (loss). Your advantage is when you do this better and faster than anyone else.
Please join Jim Franklin, CEO of Decisioneering Inc., and learn how risk management techniques like Monte Carlo simulation and optimization can give you that advantage.
> View this recorded Web seminar |
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CRYSTAL BALL® EVENTS
Public Seminar:
Using Modelling and Simulation to Calculate Value at Risk (VaR)
January 31, 2007
London, UK
Public Seminar:
Business Value Simulations on Basel II Metrics
February 5, 2007
Frankfurt, Germany
ISSSP 2007 Six Sigma Software Tour
March 1, 2007
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
2007 Latin American Crystal Ball User Conference
March 8-9, 2007
Cartagena, Colombia
ISSSP 2007 Six Sigma Software Tour
March 29, 2007
Atlanta, Georgia
ISSSP 2007 Six Sigma Software Tour
May 15, 2007
Chicago, Illinois
2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
May 21-23, 2007
Denver, Colorado
TRAINING SCHEDULE
Crystal Ball Classes
WESTERN US / CANADA
Denver, CO: Jan. 30-31
Seattle, WA: Feb. 7-8
Phoenix, AZ: Feb. 13-14
San Francisco, CA: Feb. 27-28
Denver, CO: Feb. 27-28
San Diego, CA: Mar. 6-7
Santa Fe, NM: Mar. 13-14
Denver, CO: Mar. 27-28
CENTRAL US / CANADA
Dallas, TX: Feb. 6-7
St. Louis, MO: Feb. 13-14
Cincinnati, OH: Feb. 13-14
Atlanta, GA: Feb. 21-22
Des Moines, IA: Feb. 21-22
Austin, TX: Mar. 6-7
Chicago, IL: Mar. 6-7
Detroit, MI: Mar. 21-22
EASTERN US / CANADA
New York City, NY: Jan. 30-31
Toronto, Canada: Feb. 6-7
Raleigh, NC: Feb. 7-8
Hartford, CT: Feb. 21-22
New York City, NY: Feb. 27-28
Rochester, NY: Mar. 13-14
King of Prussia, PA: Mar. 21-22
Washington, DC: Mar. 21-22
New York City, NY: Mar. 27-28
EUROPE
Frankfurt, Germany: Feb. 6-7
London, UK: Feb. 13-14
London, UK: Mar. 6-7
LATIN AMERICA
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Manila, Philippines: Feb. 12-13
Bangkok, Thailand: Mar. 12-13
Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Houston, TX: Jan. 31-Feb 1
Calgary, Canada: Mar. 13-14
Aberdeen, Scotland: Mar. 14-15
Houston, TX: Mar. 28-29
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
Denver, CO: Feb. 1
London, UK: Feb. 15
San Diego, CA: Mar. 8
Washington, DC: Mar. 23
Introduction to Real Options
Frankfurt, Germany: Feb. 8
Denver, CO: Mar. 1
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
New York, NY: Mar. 1
London, UK: Mar. 8
Denver, CO: Mar. 29
Suggest a training
date or location
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ASQ 2007 Six Sigma Conference
February 12-13
Phoenix, AZ
Forecasting Summit 2007
February 12-14
Orlando, FL
2007 SME Annual Meeting & Exhibit
February 25-28,
Denver, CO
Lean and Six Sigma for Government
February 26-28
Alexandria, VA
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If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
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Tomorrow's Forecast is an online production of Decisioneering, Inc. Newsletters are e-mailed to subscribers near the end of the first and third weeks of the month.
This e-mail newsletter is sent only to those individuals who either:
(1) Subscribed at our Web site, a training course, or a tradeshow, or
(2) Downloaded software from our Web site and requested more Decisioneering news.
To Subscribe
Subscriptions to Tomorrow's Forecast are FREE. Click here to subscribe.
To Unsubscribe
To unsubscribe, simply reply to the newsletter with the word 'UNSUBSCRIBE' as the subject of the e-mail. PLEASE leave the body of the message as you received it.
If the e-mail address from which you are replying is different than the one to which this e-mail was sent, please include your original e-mail address.
AOL subscribers: Please state your name in the body of the message.
You can also visit our Web site and follow the unsubscribe directions.
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RISK ANALYSIS TIP:
Various Uses of Distributions in Risk Analysis (3 of 3)
The following Risk Analysis Tip is provided by Dr. H. Groenendaal (Huybert@risk-modelling.com) at Vose Consulting™, and has been drawn from material in ModelAssist® for Crystal Ball®, the comprehensive risk analysis training, reference and template software. ModelAssist users can consult the ModelAssist references (in the form of Mxxx) for additional information. To read more about ModelAssist and get a free download of the demo version, click here.
Introduction
In the previous two Risk Analysis Tips (Various Uses of Distributions, Part 1 and Various Uses of Distributions, Part 2), we discussed how the correct design and development of probabilistic models (with Crystal Ball software) is highly dependent on the risk analyst’s understanding of the exact use (meaning) of the distributions (Crystal Ball assumptions) that he or she uses. We introduced and explained the three different conceptual uses of distributions and gave an introduction to Uncertainty Distributions (Part 1) and Frequency Distributions (Part 2).
In today’s Risk Analysis Tip, we provide you with an explanation of Probability Distributions. It’s highly recommended that (if you have not done so yet), you read the previous two tips first.
Probability Distributions
A probability distribution describes the values of a random variable. This type of distribution is therefore also sometimes called a distribution of randomness. For example, we may want to simulate a poker game or the number of credit loss events a bank will have during the next year. In both situations, we would use probability distributions to model the randomness.
> View the full Risk Tip
Share a comment, risk analysis tip or a new CB Tip with your fellow Crystal Ball users! Send your contribution to newsletter@crystalball.com.
> Previously published tips and techniques |
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MONTE CARLO IN THE NEWS |
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Making the Case for Enterprise Grids
Source: GRIDtoday, January 22, 2007
This article covers a recent Webcast from Grid Computing Now!, discussing IT architecture. As an organization grows, it may deploy Grid computing for applications such as Monte Carlo simulation.
Successful Start for HSBC Open FOFs
Source: investment week, January 15, 2007
HSBC Investments launched the first two portfolios in its multi-asset fund of funds range last November.
As part of the portfolio planning and development, HSBC uses Monte Carlo simulation.
An Eye-Opening Experience
Source: Yahoo! Finance, January 10, 2007
Brian Glenn reports on his MBA experience as a student at MIT Sloan. He describes his education and challenges, and even mentions learning Crystal Ball software as a part of a Microsoft Excel statistics class.
Sierra Geothermal Closes the Acquisition of the Majority Interest in Cayley Geothermal Corp.
Source: CCN Matthews, December 5, 2006
Sierra Geothermal Power Corp (TSX VENTURE:SRA) announced the closing to acquire the majority interest in Cayley Geothermal Corp. IN their Reese River Project, the staff used Monte Carlo simulation to simulate the generation potential of the geothermal source.
Read about Monte Carlo simulation in a recent article or paper? Let us know! Send your citation to newsletter@crystalball.com. |
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MICROSOFT EXCEL & THE WEB |
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WEB SITE:
Global Risk Guard®
http://www.globalriskguard.com/index.html
According to their home page, "Global Risk Guard provides a comprehensive source of resources for description and analysis of modern risk management and auditing, including the regulatory aspects, organizational issues, potential problem areas, and tools to control and manage the many different kinds of risks in both financial and non-financial institutions." The site has over 100 papers on topics that include basics on distributions, Monte Carlo simulation, asset management, and operational risk. The site also includes a risk job area, a books section, and a blog.
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JOB OPPORTUNITY |
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JOB OPPORTUNITY :
Academic Marketing Manager
Decisioneering is seeking an Academic Marketing Manager. This key role is responsible for developing and implementing marketing programs, events, and materials that drive revenue for the academic market. For over ten years, Decisioneering has run a successful, international academic program with over 700 participating universities and over 75 textbooks that include mention of Crystal Ball software.
Our academic program is more than just a sales channel: it is a partnership with like-minded academics that see tools such as Crystal Ball software as critical to the education of tomorrow’s business leaders. This type of program requires a highly motivated, passionate, and energetic individual who can run current marketing initiatives and can also develop creative, new methods for gathering academic leads and furthering academic sales. While this is not a sales position, the candidate will work closely with a dedicated U.S. and international academic sales group.
The candidate for this position should foremost have (1) a strong marketing background (i.e., excellent writing and communication skills, proficiency in planning and running live and Web events, knowledge of Web marketing and Web page development, experience working with sales team to create marketing materials and help generate quality sales leads) and (2) experience working with academics (professors and other teaching faculty) and with textbook publishers. A successful candidate understands the “mind set” and needs of our academic and customers and publishing partners.
> For more information and for job responsibilities and requirements, visit our Web site
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CBUG DISCUSSIONS |
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The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
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Latest topics:
- Losing assumptions in Tornado chart
- Divide by zero error when using extreme speed
- Data distribution does not move with assumption cell
- Simulation error with merged cells
- How to run User-defined Macros?
- Seeking Crystal Ball software beta testers
> Click here to visit CBUG and register to become a member |
PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion.
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Copyright (c) 2007 Decisioneering, Inc. "Decisioneering" and "Crystal Ball" are registered trademarks of Decisioneering, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
“Hyperion” and Hyperion’s product names are trademarks of Hyperion.
Microsoft and Excel are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.
ModelAssist is a registered trademark and Vose Consulting is a trademark of The Vose Consulting Group.
Yahoo! is a registered trademark of Yahoo! Inc.
Global Risk Guard is a registered trademark of Global Risk Guard.
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January 25, 2007
