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WHAT'S NEW |
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Keynotes Announced for the 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
The 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference, a three-day event geared toward Crystal Ball users of all levels, will be held May 21-23, 2007, at the Westin Tabor Center, in beautiful Denver, Colorado. The first and second days of the conference will begin with these special keynotes:
 Monday, May 21
"Crystal Ball Applications at Johnson & Johnson"
Dr. Venky Gopalaswamy, Business Improvement Services Group Leader, Johnson & Johnson
Process Excellence at Johnson & Johnson has evolved over the past few decades from a Quality focused effort to a more integrated Business Excellence effort. There are three key business improvement methodologies utilized at Johnson & Johnson: Six Sigma, Design Excellence and Lean. To support these methodologies and to support other key Johnson & Johnson initiatives, software tools such as Crystal Ball software are utilized extensively across the enterprise.
This Keynote address is a strategic one and will focus on Crystal Ball software applications at Johnson & Johnson. The history of Crystal Ball software use at Johnson & Johnson, an overview of a few applications, the challenges and lessons learned in identifying and deploying the software across the global enterprise, and some success stories will be shared. This keynote will not go into tactical use of the software. Finally, thoughts on how software such as Crystal Ball software can expand their offering into other areas will be presented.
 Tuesday, May 22
"Making Logical Sense of Language"
Dr. Deborah Bennett, Professor of Mathematics at New Jersey City University and author of Randomness and Logic Made Easy: How to Know When Language Deceives You
How logical do you think you are? Do you wonder why those around you are illogical? Even with a common language and a common set of rules of deduction, we seem to have trouble communicating logically. You may be surprised to find out that we are at our most illogical when making promises or threats.
Entertain and challenge yourself with puzzles in logic and language while exploring some of the reasons why our language gets in the way when we are trying to understand one another. Take a mental break from the intense technical information presented by the skilled modeling and simulation experts at the Crystal Ball User Conference and re-energize yourself for another day!
2007 User Conference Registration is Open!
> Conference registration is now open! Register today and take advantage of our early bird discount!
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You Can Still Submit Your Crystal Ball Monte Carlo Award Nomination!
The Crystal Ball Monte Carlo Awards, better known as “The Monties,” recognize the outstanding and innovative usage of Crystal Ball software. Does your work with Crystal Ball software deserve a Monte?
 Awards will be given by a panel of judges in six categories: Best Technical Application, Best Financial Application, Most Innovative Application, Most Unusual Application, Best Student/Academic Project and Lifetime Achievement Award.
All finalists will receive an award, framed certificate, and year-long recognition by Decisioneering. Winners will receive an impressive award trophy to display in their office. The winner of the Best Student/Academic Project Monte will also receive a $500 scholarship!
How do you apply?
To submit your nomination for any 2007 Monte award, simply go to our awards home page and download and complete the award submission form (a Microsoft® PowerPoint® presentation). To submit the presentation or for any questions, e-mail us at cbucawards@crystalball.com.
Remember to submit prior to February 15, 2007, and good luck!
 Six Sigma Software Showcase in March in Philadelphia
Crystal Ball software is teaming with other leading suppliers of software for Six Sigma and the ISSSP (International Society of Six Sigma Professionals) to present a free, one-day workshop to demonstrate these Six Sigma software tools:
- Minitab® 15 - The latest version of this popular statistical tool
- Crystal Ball - Simulation and optimization tools for design and forecasting
- GainSeeker® - Real-time data collection tools for managing data
- RapAnalyst™ - Business analytics software for analyzing complex datasets
- Quality Companion™ 2 - Software designed to help you plan, organize, and execute projects
The next event will be held March 1 in Philadelphia at the Sheraton Suites Philadelphia Airport, 4101-B Island Ave. Events are also planned for Atlanta (March 29) and Chicago (May 15).
This workshop is for practitioners broadening their skill set and for leaders planning the future. See the daily schedule, learn more about the software tools, and register at www.isssp.com/softwaretour.asp. Registration is required; space is limited. Every attendee will receive a 30-day, single-user evaluation copy of each software package.
>  Learn more on the ISSSP Web site
 Upcoming Web Seminars
(1) "Forecasting Oil & Gas Production for Short-Term Planning"
Date: Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Time: 8:00 AM, Mountain Standard Time (Denver)
How do you convince management that they want more than just a number? Please join Michelle LaPoint, Business Planning Engineer for Chevron's GOM Deepwater Producing Operations Group, to hear how a major Oil & Gas company has made Monte Carlo analysis part of the way they work.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
(2) Monte Carlo Simulation in Chemical Process Design
Date: Thursday, February 22, 2007
Time: 9:00 am Mountain Standard Time (Denver)
The design and development of new products and processes are filled with risk and uncertainty. As a design team follows the Design for Six Sigma roadmap the team will use Monte Carlo simulation to manage the uncertainties. Join Randy Perry, Master Consultant with Sigma Breakthrough Technologies, Inc. (SBTI), as he presents a case study demonstrating the use of Monte Carlo simulation in assessing and managing project financial risk (NPV), capital engineering budget risk and design technical risk.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
> View other upcoming and recorded Web seminars
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CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES |
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 TEXTBOOK:
Six Sigma Distribution Modeling
By Andrew Sleeper
Published by McGraw-Hill Professional, Copyright 2007
Hardbound, 448 pp.
ISBN: 0071482784
Understanding and properly using statistical data distributions is one of the most important and difficult skills for a Six Sigma practitioner to possess. In Six Sigma Distribution Modeling, Andrew Sleeper offers Six Sigma practitioners a detailed road map for selecting and using distributions for more precise outcomes. Sleeper provides Six Sigma practitioners with the advanced statistical and modeling tools that will allow them to stand out from their competitors. With the added value of Crystal Ball software, this book becomes a powerful tool for analyzing and modeling difficult data quickly and efficiently.
Filled with over 120 helpful illustrations, Six Sigma Distribution Modeling equips technical professionals with a full array of advanced tools for modeling, simulating, and optimizing any system in a Six Sigma project. This textbook includes a 140-day Crystal Ball Professional Textbook Edition (version 7.2.2).
> Learn more about this textbook
> Order this textbook from Amazon.com
WEB SEMINAR:
Probabilistic Environmental Risk Assessment of Pesticides
There is increasing interest in Europe in the probabilistic risk assessment of pesticides to help reduce reliance on overly conservative combinations of worst case exposure and toxicity values. Initiatives such as EUFRAM and WEBFRAM have provided guidance and tools for performing such risk assessments.
Join Mark Crane, Director of the environmental consultancy Watts & Crane Associates (www.wfcenvironment.co.uk), and learn how pesticide risk assessment models developed for the European Union can incorporate uncertainty and variability to provide a greater understanding of potential pesticide risks.
> View this recorded Web seminar
WEB SEMINAR:
Aplicaciones de las Simulaciones de Monte Carlo (Crystal Ball) en la Valoración de Riesgos de Mercado
A través de Internet, Taller de 1 hora sin costo, dirigido a ejecutivos involucrados en la toma de decisiones sobre la gestión y análisis del riesgo, al igual que docentes universitarios.
Camilo Romero, Conferencista internacional y entrenador certificado en Crystal Ball y Real Options Analysis Toolkit, nos hablará sobre la comprensión de las características del procedimiento de Simulación de Monte Carlo. Los participantes observarán en el programa Crystal Ball la solución de diferentes módulos de valoración de riesgo de mercado.
> View and listen to a recording of the event (Presione aqui para ver y escuchar la grabacion del evento)
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CRYSTAL BALL® EVENTS
ISSSP 2007 Six Sigma Software Tour
March 1, 2007
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
2007 Latin American Crystal Ball User Conference
March 8-9, 2007
Cartagena, Colombia
ISSSP 2007 Six Sigma Software Tour
March 29, 2007
Atlanta, Georgia
ISSSP 2007 Six Sigma Software Tour
May 15, 2007
Chicago, Illinois
2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
May 21-23, 2007
Denver, Colorado
TRAINING SCHEDULE
Crystal Ball Classes
WESTERN US / CANADA
Phoenix, AZ: Feb. 13-14
San Francisco, CA: Feb. 27-28
Denver, CO: Feb. 27-28
San Diego, CA: Mar. 6-7
Santa Fe, NM: Mar. 13-14
Denver, CO: Mar. 27-28
Salt Lake City, UT: Apr. 4-5
Seattle, WA: Apr. 10-11
Los Angeles, CA: Apr. 10-11
San Francisco, CA: Apr. 17-18
Denver, CO: Apr. 25-26
CENTRAL US / CANADA
St. Louis, MO: Feb. 13-14
Cincinnati, OH: Feb. 13-14
Atlanta, GA: Feb. 21-22
Des Moines, IA: Feb. 21-22
Austin, TX: Mar. 6-7
Chicago, IL: Mar. 6-7
Detroit, MI: Mar. 21-22
Houston, TX: Apr. 3-4
Indianapolis, IN: Apr. 10-11
Milwaukee, WI: Apr. 10-11
Cincinnati, OH: Apr. 24-25
EASTERN US / CANADA
Hartford, CT: Feb. 21-22
New York City, NY: Feb. 27-28
Rochester, NY: Mar. 13-14
King of Prussia, PA: Mar. 21-22
Washington, DC: Mar. 21-22
New York City, NY: Mar. 27-28
Boston, MA: Apr. 3-4
Orlando, FL: Apr. 17-18
Philadelphia, PA: Apr. 17-18
Ottawa, Canada: Apr. 25-26
EUROPE
London, UK: Feb. 13-14
London, UK: Mar. 6-7
LATIN AMERICA
Buenos Aires, Argentina: Apr. 11-12
Santiago, Chile: Apr. 16-17
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Manila, Philippines: Feb. 12-13
Bangkok, Thailand: Mar. 12-13
Melbourne, Australia: May 1-2
Sydney, Australia: May 7-8
Brisbane, Australia: May 10-11
Perth, Australia: May 14-15
Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Calgary, Canada: Mar. 13-14
Aberdeen, Scotland: Mar. 14-15
Houston, TX: Mar. 28-29
Dallas, TX: Apr. 3-4
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
London, UK: Feb. 15
San Diego, CA: Mar. 8
Washington, DC: Mar. 23
Los Angeles, CA: Apr. 12
Denver, CO: Apr. 27
Introduction to Real Options
Denver, CO: Mar. 1
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
New York, NY: Mar. 1
London, UK: Mar. 8
Denver, CO: Mar. 29
Philadelphia, PA: Apr. 19
Ottawa, Canada: Apr. 27
Suggest a training
date or location
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ASQ 2007 Six Sigma Conference
February 12-13
Phoenix, AZ
Forecasting Summit 2007
February 12-14
Orlando, FL
2007 SME Annual Meeting & Exhibit
February 25-28,
Denver, CO
Lean and Six Sigma for Government
February 26-28
Alexandria, VA
CFO Rising 14th Annual Conference and Exhibition
March 18-21
Orlando, FL
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If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
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Tomorrow's Forecast is an online production of Decisioneering, Inc. Newsletters are e-mailed to subscribers near the end of the first and third weeks of the month.
This e-mail newsletter is sent only to those individuals who either:
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 WHITE PAPER:
Stochastic Critical Path
Eduardo Herrera Lana, CEO, CIDEM
Source: The 2006 Crystal Ball User Conference
ABSTRACT
Determining the critical path has been the right way to manage schedules in projects, but most of the time, using this approach does not guarantee that the project will finish on time. Some project managers use the most-likely scenario for each task in the project, and others use three scenarios: pessimistic, optimistic, and most likely. Each method is problematic: the project will not reach the goals on time because the project manager does not know anything about the probability of each scenario. Simulation is the best way to determine all scenarios in which it is possible to trace the stochastic critical paths. With simulation, project managers can guarantee more realistic time forecasts.
> Read the entire article
CB TIP:
Assumption Preferences
Crystal Ball software offers an impressive level of flexibility for the formatting of output charts, but did you know that you have considerable control over the appearance of assumptions as well?
The Assumption Preferences dialog lets you choose an assumption view and determine if and when the assumption chart window appears when a
simulation runs. You can open this dialog when the Define Assumption dialog is open either by selecting the Preferences > Assumptions option from the top of the dialog or by right-clicking on the distribution shape and selecting Assumption Preferences.
The view option for the assumption chart includes:
- Probability – shows a graph of all possible values for the assumption
variable and the probability of their occurrence.
- Cumulative Probability – shows a graph of the probability that the
assumption variable will fall at or below a given value (shown below).
- Reverse Cumulative Probability – shows a graph of the probability
that the assumption variable will fall at or above a given value.
- Statistics – shows a table of measures of central tendency, variability,
minimum and maximum values, and other statistics for the
assumption variable.
- Percentiles – shows a table of percentiles and their associated values
for the assumption variable.
Share a comment, risk analysis tip or a new CB Tip with your fellow Crystal Ball software users! Send your contribution to newsletter@crystalball.com.
> Previously published tips and techniques
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CONFERENCE ROUNDUP |
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SPEAKING OPPORTUNITIES |
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These conferences have announced a call for speakers. If you wish to submit a talk that discusses Crystal Ball software in some aspect, and if that talk is accepted, please let us know. We are always willing to offer some form of support to our customers.
5th International Probabilistic Workshop
November 28-29, 2007 -
Ghent, Belgium
The 5th Probabilistic Workshop will take place on 28 and 29 November 2007 at Ghent University, Belgium. Luc Taerwe, head of the Department of Structural Engineering, will chair this workshop which will be organised jointly by Ghent University and the University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna. The conference is intended for civil and structural engineers and other professionals concerned with structures, systems or facilities that require the assessment of safety, risk and reliability. Participants could therefore be consultants, contractors, suppliers, owners, operators, insurance experts, authorities and those involved in research and teaching.
Submission of abstracts
(not exceeding 400 words): May 1, 2007
For more information, contact:
Prof. Dr. Ir. Luc Taerwe
Magnel Laboratory for Concrete Research,
Technologiepark-Zwijnaarde 904,
B-9052 Ghent, Belgium
Luc.Taerwe@UGent.be |
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CBUG DISCUSSIONS |
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The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion.
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Copyright (c) 2007 Decisioneering, Inc. "Decisioneering" and "Crystal Ball" are registered trademarks of Decisioneering, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Microsoft and PowerPoint are registered trademarks and Windows Vista is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.
OptQuest is a registered trademark of OptTek Systems, Inc.
Minitab and the Minitab logo are registered trademarks and Quality Companion is a trademark of Minitab Inc.
GainSeeker
is a registered trademark of Hertzler Systems, Inc.
RapAnalyst is a trademark of Raptor International.
Yahoo! is a registered trademark of Yahoo! Inc.
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February 8, 2007
