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IN THIS ISSUE |
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WHAT'S NEW |
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Conferencia Latinoamericana Crystal Ball 2007 en Cartagena, Colombia
 Marzo 8-9, 2007, en Cartagena, Colombia
¡Regístrese ahora el espacio es limitado! Decisioneering esta complacido en anunciar la primera conferencia latinoamericana de Crystal Ball. Será un evento de dos días enfocado al uso de Crystal Ball en distintos sectores.
La conferencia incluirá dos días de presentaciones y minuciosos talleres, dictados por líderes de la industria y expertos de Crystal Ball. El costo del evento es de $395 dólares e incluye todas las sesiones, talleres, desayunos, almuerzos, snaks y un CD con los materiales y presentaciones de la conferencia. Para recibir un descuento de grupo solamente se requiere que dos o más personas de su compañía asistan. El precio por persona será de $295 dólares.
> Aprenda más sobre la conferencia Latinamericana de Crystal Ball 2007!
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Six Sigma Software Showcase in March in Philadelphia
If you need to learn about the latest analytical tools for your Six Sigma implementation, this half-day event is worth your time!
Crystal Ball software is teaming with other leading suppliers of software for Six Sigma and with the ISSSP (International Society of Six Sigma Professionals) to present a free, one-day workshop to demonstrate these Six Sigma software tools:
- Minitab® 15 - The latest version of this popular statistical tool
- Crystal Ball - Simulation and optimization tools for design and forecasting
- GainSeeker® - Real-time data collection tools for managing data
- RapAnalyst™ - Business analytics software for analyzing complex data sets
- Quality Companion™ 2 - Software designed to help you plan, organize, and execute projects
 The next event will be held March 1 in Philadelphia at the Sheraton Suites Philadelphia Airport, 4101-B Island Ave. Events are also planned for Atlanta (March 29) and Chicago (May 15).
This is a must-attend workshop for
- Practitioners who want to broaden their skill set,
- Leaders who need to plan the future of their toolset, and
- Anyone who wants a quick education on the best data tools in the Six Sigma market.
See the daily schedule, learn more about the software tools, and register at the ISSSP Web site. Registration is required; space is limited. Every attendee will receive a free 30-day, single-user evaluation copy of each software package.
>  Learn more on the ISSSP Web site and register while space is still available!
 Upcoming Web Seminar
Forecasting Music Sales Eight Days a Week
Date: Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Time: 9:00 am Mountain Daylight Time (Denver)
Sovereign Records has a consumer panel with a large amount of personal information. Each month panel members are surveyed and asked to give purchase intent for Sovereign Record's upcoming catalogue of music. The goal—to be able to gauge how many sound scans to burn for upcoming artists. The challenge—how to judge reliability of the stated opinions of the panel. How can Sovereign Records use their panel's opinions and demographic data to accurately predict their investment in CD sound scans?
Join Michael Lieberman, President of Multivariate Solutions, and learn how his firm helped transform a music clients’ large amount of personal information and demographic data into a model used to predict sales.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
DECISIONEERING IN THE NEWS
The acquisition of Decisioneering, Inc, by Hyperion® has generated quite a bit of buzz in the business news world. In a recent article, "Hyperion's Predictive Analytics Purchase Demystified," Hannah Smalltree of SearchDataManagement.com describes how this acquisition impacts the business intelligence market and how Crystal Ball software fits in as a predictive analytics tool.
> Read the entire online article
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CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES |
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TEXTBOOK:
Development of Sustainable Bioprocesses: Modeling and Assessment
By Elmar Heinze, Arno Biwer, and Charles Cooney
Published by Wiley
Copyright 2007
Hardbound, 316 pp.
ISBN: 0470015594
Bioprocess technology involves the combination of living matter (whole organism or enzymes) with nutrients under laboratory conditions to make a desired product within the pharmaceutical, food, cosmetics, biotechnology, fine chemicals and bulk chemicals sectors. Industry is under increasing pressure to develop new processes that are both environmentally friendly and cost-effective, and this can be achieved by taking a fresh look at process development; namely by combining modern process modeling techniques with sustainability assessment methods.
Development of Sustainable Bioprocesses: Modeling and Assessment describes methodologies and supporting case studies for the evolution and implementation of sustainable bioprocesses. Practical and industry-focused, the book begins with an introduction to the bioprocess industries and development procedures. Bioprocesses and bioproducts are then introduced, together with a description of the unit operations involved. Modeling procedures (such as simulation), a key feature of the book, are covered in chapter 3 prior to an overview of the key sustainability assessment methods in use (environmental, economic and societal). The second part of the book is devoted to case studies.
An accompanying CD-ROM includes an evaluation version of Crystal Ball Professional software, a demo version of SuperPro Designer software (used in process engineering), and models of all featured case studies, Microsoft Excel sheets of assessment methods, Monte Carlo simulations and exercises.
> Learn more about this textbook
> Order this textbook from Amazon.com
RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Power Asset Evaluations: Challenges in Dealing with Uncertainty
Power assets present modeling challenges at every stage of their management – from development to operational performance. Good understanding and quantification of risks is paramount to avoiding unpleasant bottom line surprises. Simulation analysis of two separate gas fired power generation plants will be presented – the first one at the development and the second one at the operational stage.
Please join Andrei Smilenov, Director, Analysis and Planning at NiSource Inc. and learn how to identify the main sources of uncertainty and their impact on financial results.
> View this recorded Web seminar
RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Forecasting Oil & Gas Production for Short-Term Planning
How do you convince management that they want more than just a number? Please join Michelle LaPoint, Business Planning Engineer for Chevron's GOM Deepwater Producing Operations Group, to hear how a major Oil & Gas company has made Monte Carlo analysis part of the way they work.
> View this recorded Web seminar
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CRYSTAL BALL® EVENTS
ISSSP 2007 Six Sigma Software Tour
March 1, 2007
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
2007 Latin American Crystal Ball User Conference
March 8-9, 2007
Cartagena, Colombia
ISSSP 2007 Six Sigma Software Tour
March 29, 2007
Atlanta, Georgia
ISSSP 2007 Six Sigma Software Tour
May 15, 2007
Chicago, Illinois
2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
May 21-23, 2007
Denver, Colorado
TRAINING SCHEDULE
Crystal Ball Classes
WESTERN US / CANADA
San Francisco, CA: Feb. 27-28
Denver, CO: Feb. 27-28
San Diego, CA: Mar. 6-7
Santa Fe, NM: Mar. 13-14
Denver, CO: Mar. 27-28
Salt Lake City, UT: Apr. 4-5
Seattle, WA: Apr. 10-11
Los Angeles, CA: Apr. 10-11
San Francisco, CA: Apr. 17-18
Denver, CO: Apr. 25-26
CENTRAL US / CANADA
Atlanta, GA: Feb. 21-22
Des Moines, IA: Feb. 21-22
Austin, TX: Mar. 6-7
Chicago, IL: Mar. 6-7
Detroit, MI: Mar. 21-22
Houston, TX: Apr. 3-4
Indianapolis, IN: Apr. 10-11
Milwaukee, WI: Apr. 10-11
Cincinnati, OH: Apr. 24-25
EASTERN US / CANADA
New York City, NY: Feb. 27-28
Rochester, NY: Mar. 13-14
King of Prussia, PA: Mar. 21-22
Washington, DC: Mar. 21-22
New York City, NY: Mar. 27-28
Boston, MA: Apr. 3-4
Orlando, FL: Apr. 17-18
Philadelphia, PA: Apr. 17-18
Ottawa, Canada: Apr. 25-26
EUROPE
London, UK: Mar. 6-7
LATIN AMERICA
Buenos Aires, Argentina: Apr. 11-12
Santiago, Chile: Apr. 16-17
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Bangkok, Thailand: Mar. 12-13
Melbourne, Australia: May 1-2
Sydney, Australia: May 7-8
Brisbane, Australia: May 10-11
Perth, Australia: May 14-15
Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Calgary, Canada: Mar. 13-14
Aberdeen, Scotland: Mar. 14-15
Houston, TX: Mar. 28-29
Dallas, TX: Apr. 3-4
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
San Diego, CA: Mar. 8
Washington, DC: Mar. 23
Los Angeles, CA: Apr. 12
Denver, CO: Apr. 27
Introduction to Real Options
Denver, CO: Mar. 1
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
New York, NY: Mar. 1
London, UK: Mar. 8
Denver, CO: Mar. 29
Philadelphia, PA: Apr. 19
Ottawa, Canada: Apr. 27
Suggest a training
date or location
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2007 SME Annual Meeting & Exhibit
February 25-28,
Denver, CO
Lean and Six Sigma for Government
February 26-28
Alexandria, VA
CFO Rising 14th Annual Conference and Exhibition
March 18-21
Orlando, FL
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If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
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Tomorrow's Forecast is an online production of Decisioneering, Inc. Newsletters are e-mailed to subscribers near the end of the first and third weeks of the month.
This e-mail newsletter is sent only to those individuals who either:
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You can also visit our Web site and follow the unsubscribe directions.
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 CB TIP:
The Yes-No Distribution
When you need to model a situation with two outcomes, you should consider using the yes-no distribution. Also called the Bernoulli distribution, the yes-no distribution is an excellent tool that describes a set of observations that can have only one of two values: for example, yes/no, success/failure, true/false, or heads/tails. It is a discrete probability distribution.
The parameter for the yes-no distribution is the probability (p) of yes. There are two conditions underlying a yes-no distribution:
- The random variable can have only one of two values, 0 or 1.
- The chance of 1 is equal to p, the chance of 0 is equal to one minus p.
Prior to Crystal Ball software version 7, the Yes-No was not an option. Modelers who needed this type of discrete outcome used a Binomial distribution with the Trial parameter set at a value of 1. Now, with version 7x, Crystal Ball software users can employ this intuitive and user-friendly distribution for any dual-outcome probabilities.
Share a comment, risk analysis tip or a new CB Tip with your fellow Crystal Ball users! Send your contribution to newsletter@crystalball.com.
> Previously published tips and techniques |
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MONTE CARLO IN THE NEWS |
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Reducing drug development costs
Source: ZDNet, February 15, 2007
As it now costs a whopping $800 million to develop a new drug, American researchers have developed a Bayesian forecasting computer model which could reduce drug development costs, saving hundreds of millions of dollars per new drug. The Bayesian model was validated using a Monte Carlo model.
Alcan announces strong fourth quarter to cap record year - Quarterly operating cash flow reaches all-time high of $1.1 billion
Source: Yahoo! Finance, January 31, 2007
Alcan Inc. reported operating earnings of $1.09 per common share in the fourth quarter of 2006 compared to $0.54 a year ago and $1.22 in the third quarter. The company states that the fair value of options granted after January 1, 2006 was determined using a Monte Carlo simulation model.
Fitch named rating agency of the year – ISR Awards
Source: kazinform, January 26, 2007
Fitch Ratings has been named "Rating Agency of the Year" by International Securitisation Report. In 2006, the rating agency launched a large number of new and innovative products and services, including the use of Monte Carlo simulation for consumer ABS and ABCP.
Winning ways
Source: Economist.com, January 25, 2007
Researchers working on artificial intelligence have long been intrigued by games, from chess to backgammon to poker. The Chinese game of Go is a very complicated game to model, and programmers are turning to Monte Carlo simulation to provide a new generation of fast, intelligent programs.
Read about Monte Carlo simulation in a recent article or paper? Let us know! Send your citation to newsletter@crystalball.com. |
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MICROSOFT EXCEL & THE WEB |
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WEB SITE:
MeadInKent.co.uk
http://www.meadinkent.co.uk/excel.htm
A fairly simple site, MeadInKent has been developed to help Microsoft Excel and Access® users on a variety of topics. The Excel section includes discussions and examples on functions and calculations, cell formatting, dates and times, data sharing with other programs, and more. |
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CBUG DISCUSSIONS |
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The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
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Latest topics:
- Data distribution does not move with assumption cell
- Automate OptQuest® runs
- Decisioneering and Hyperion
- Summing values of each trial
- Crystal Ball Standard vs. Professional in practice
- Sharing files between versions 5 and 7
> Click here to visit CBUG and register to become a member |
PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion.
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Copyright (c) 2007 Decisioneering, Inc. "Decisioneering" and "Crystal Ball" are registered trademarks of Decisioneering, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
“Hyperion” and Hyperion’s product names are trademarks of Hyperion Solutions Corporation.
Microsoft, Excel and Access are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.
OptQuest is a registered trademark of OptTek Systems, Inc.
Minitab and the Minitab logo are registered trademarks and Quality Companion is a trademark of Minitab Inc.
GainSeeker is a registered trademark of Hertzler Systems, Inc.
RapAnalyst is a trademark of Raptor International.
Yahoo! is a registered trademark of Yahoo! Inc.
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February 22, 2007
