RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Monte Carlo Simulation in Chemical Process Design

The design and development of new products and processes are filled with risk and uncertainty. As a design team follows the Design for Six Sigma roadmap the team will use Monte Carlo simulation to manage the uncertainties. Join Randy Perry, Master Consultant with Sigma Breakthrough Technologies, Inc. (SBTI), as he presents a case study demonstrating the use of Monte Carlo simulation in assessing and managing project financial risk (NPV), capital engineering budget risk and design technical risk.

> View this recorded Web seminar

WHITE PAPER:
"Using the Value Measuring Methodology to Evaluate Government Initiatives"
Kevin Foley, Associate, Booz Allen Hamilton
Source: The 2006 Crystal Ball User Conference

ABSTRACT

Booz Allen Hamilton, in conjunction with a team from Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, developed a method to properly value various government initiatives. Historically, the quantitative value of an alternative was used as a major factor in the decision to implement a given program. However, this approach overlooks the qualitative aspects of a program that may be in the Government’s best interest. The Value Measuring Methodology (VMM) uses both the quantitative value and qualitative values, such as values to society, the end user, and government, as inputs to derive new measures for comparing alternative projects. Given the level of risk in many government projects, VMM relies on Crystal Ball to describe uncertainty in a style that is acceptable to major oversight organizations.

> Read the entire article

CB TIP:
Online Licensing Portal

We all agree that software installation should be painless and easy, but at times, factors outside of the software installer are what confound the process. For example, many larger companies block external communications from installing applications through a Proxy Server or firewall. Crystal Ball software licensing is completed through our license server, so licensing can become an issue if external communications are blocked. To assist our customers, we created the online licensing portal that provides a a solution to licensing issues, and we have just redesigned the portal to make it even easier to use.

How do you find and use the online licensing portal?

If your machine cannot communicate with the Decisioneering licensing server, the Crystal Ball software installer will automatically take you to the portal in your Internet browser. You will then have the option to manually fulfill your license, and you have a choice of instructions in one of three languages: English, Spanish, or Japanese.

The portal then asks for your your License Activation Code (LAC), which you received with your purchased software or evaluation version, and your Host ID (available through the Crystal Ball License Manager on your computer. In the second step, you now have the choice to either copy and paste the license information directly from the screen, or you can have a license file e-mailed to you. Once you have received this file, you can license locally without connecting to our server.

The online licensing portal is a great tool for IT managers who may need the file for a later time. If you need to re-image a machine, and the hardware has not changed, the license file can be re-used. IT managers can archive these files for users, so that users would not have to contact Crystal Ball for a reset of the license.

> Click here to view the online license portal

> Previously published tips and techniques

Our roundup is a list of risk-related events that we publish in the first newsletter of each month. We highlight the events of the next month to give you enough lead time to register for any that interest you.

March 2007

22nd Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium (HEES)
Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
April 1-3, 2007, Dallas, TX
InterContinental Dallas Hotel
http://www.spe.org/spe/jsp/meeting/0,2460,1104_1535_5396707,00.html

IQPC Design for Six Sigma Conference
International Quality & Productivity Center (IQPC)
April 3-4, 2007, Chicago, IL
Crowne Plaza Chicago Metro
http://www.iqpc.com/us/dfss/dec
(Receive a 10% discount to this event by clicking on the link above!)

DSI Western Region's 2007 (36th) Annual Meeting
Decision Sciences Institute (DSI)
April 3-7, 2007, Denver, CO
Inverness Hotel
http://www.wdsinet.org/

SPE Rocky Mountain Oil & Gas Technology Symposium
Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
April 16-18, Denver, CO
Hyatt Regency Denver at Colorado Convention Center
http://www.spe.org/rmts07

Six Sigma Summit London 2007
International Quality & Productivity Center (IQPC)
April 17-22, London, UK
Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre
http://www.iqpc.com/cgi-bin/templates/singlecell.html?topic=241&event=11168

Hyperion Solutions xxxx nxzsn AZm,m,xmjznzja Mmz
April 22-24, Orlando, FL
Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin,
http://www.hyperion.com

WCBF Lean Six Sigma Summit
April 24-27, Chicago, IL
The Westin Chicago North Shore
http://www.wcbf.com/quality/5069/?source=crystalball

SRMC Spring Conference
Society of Risk Management Consultants (SRMC)
April 26-28, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Crowne Plaza, Northstar Hotel
http://www.srmcsociety.org/conference.html

RIMS 2007 Annual Conference & Exhibition
Risk and Insurance Management Society (RIMS),,,
April 29-May 3, New Orleans, Louisiana
http://www.rims.org/Template.cfm?section=AnnualConference1

2007 Conference on O.R. Practice
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
April 29-May 1, Vancouver, Canada
Sheraton Wall Centre
http://meetings.informs.org/Practice07/

> Visit our Web site for the entire list of events (or to suggest an event for us to include)

These conferences have announced a call for speakers. If you wish to submit a talk that discusses Crystal Ball software in some aspect, and if that talk is accepted, please let us know. We are always willing to offer some form of support to our customers.

Winter Simulation Conference 2007

The Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) is the premier international forum for disseminating recent advances in the field of system simulation. In addition to a technical program of unsurpassed scope and quality, WSC provides the central meeting place for simulation practitioners, researchers, and vendors working in all disciplines and in the industrial, governmental, military, and academic sectors. WSC '07 will be held in Washington D.C. at the prestigious Pennsylvania Avenue JW Marriott hotel from December 9-12, 2007.

WSC '07 marks the 40th anniversary of the Winter Simulation Conference. It features a comprehensive program ranging from introductory tutorials to state-of-the-art research and practice. The conference includes student presentations, exhibits, training sessions by software vendors, business meetings for professional societies and software user groups, and a general reception.

All contributed paper submissions are due by April 2, 2007 and will be peer reviewed. Accepted papers will be published in the CD-ROM versions of the conference proceedings, which will be copyrighted and widely disseminated. A paper must accompany all presentations and tutorials except those in the Vendor/Exhibitor track, the Simulation Case Studies track, the Poster Session, and the Ph.D. Colloquium.

> For more information, visit the Winter Simulation Conference Web site

The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.

Latest topics: More information about the effect of inputs on output Are empirical data fitting and Monte Carlo simulation necessary? Displayed value in forecast cells Help with interpreting output results > Click here to visit CBUG and register to become a member

PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion.