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IN THIS ISSUE |
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WHAT'S NEW |
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Public Seminar:
Mastering a Key Strategic Challenge: Sustained Value Creation through Business Cases
Date: Monday April 23, 2007
Time: 13.00 to 17:00, CET (Frankfurt)
Location: Frankfurt Kastor, Kastor & Pollux, Platz der Einheit 1, Frankfurt, Germany
Language: This seminar will be held partly in English and partly in German
There are few tasks as important, or as difficult, as deciding upon a new strategic direction for your organisation. Many people still rely on traditional cost-benefit-analysis, NPV, ROI, and decision trees when developing business cases. We exist in a world of tremendous technological change; yet for many enterprises, the technology for developing and implementing strategy has remained largely unchanged for decades.
Join us for a FREE Crystal Ball Public Seminar. This half-day event will feature two speakers who will teach attendees new applications and best practices for using Crystal Ball when deciding on a new strategic direction. Dave Hammal, European Trainer and Product Consultant with Crystal Ball, will give an overview of Crystal Ball and how it can be used to help in decision-making processes. Dr. Volker E. Pollmann, Ph.D, a Managing Director at Solution Matrix, will discuss ways to create sustainable value, taking into account the multiple perspectives of a company's key stakeholders.
> For more information and to register for this seminar, visit our Web site
WCBF Lean Six Sigma Summit
April 24-27, The Westin Chicago North Shore
http://www.wcbf.com/quality/5069/?source=crystalball
Receive a 20% discount to this event! Use the code: 5069CrystalBall20
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 2007 User Conference Schedule
The detailed schedule for the 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference, held May 21-23 in Denver, Colorado, USA, is now posted on our Web site. This schedule, which lays out the case studies, keynotes, and workshops planned at the conference, highlights the amazing program and overall flow of this annual event.
> View the 2007 conference schedule
> Download the conference brochure
 2007 Latin America User Conference A Success
We are pleased to announce the success of our first Latin America Crystal Ball User Conference. The Latin America Crystal Ball User Conference, held March 8-9, 2007, in Cartagena, Colombia, drew more than 60 attendees from a broad range of industries, companies and countries.
The Latin America Crystal Ball User Conference featured 18 different sessions and workshops from speakers hailing from Venezuela, Ecuador, Argentina and Colombia. The speakers, Crystal Ball and risk analysis experts, focused on the importance of using Monte Carlo simulation, optimization and real options in their company’s projects and day-to-day business.
> View the entire press release
 Upcoming Web Seminars
(1) Financial Modeling: Empower Your Spreadsheets with Monte Carlo Simulation
Date: Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Time: 9:00 am Mountain Daylight Time (Denver)
Are you an analyst interested in learning more about Crystal Ball and how it can be applied to financial modeling? Would you like to turn static Microsoft Excel data and financial models, into true risk models? Please join John Charnes, Professor, Scupin Faculty Fellow, and former Director of the Finance, Economics, and Decision Sciences Area in the University of Kansas School of Business, to learn about this and other equally important topics.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
(2) Mastering a Key Strategic Challenge: Sustained Value Creation through Business Cases
Date: Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Time: 15.00 GMT (London), 10 am Eastern Daylight Time
There are few tasks as important, or as difficult, as deciding upon a new strategic direction for your organisation. We exist in a world of tremendous technological change; yet for many enterprises, the technology for developing and implementing strategy has remained largely unchanged for decades. In this one-hour Web seminar, join Dr. Volker E. Pollmann, Ph.D, a Managing Director at Solution Matrix, will discuss ways to create sustainable value, taking into account the multiple perspectives of your company's key stakeholders. He will demonstrate techniques that will allow these different viewpoints to become a competitive advantage rather than remain a barrier to progress.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
(3) Cost Estimating: "The Known Unknown"
Date: Thursday, April 5, 2007
Time: 15.00 GMT (London), 10 am Eastern Daylight Time
The purchasing of materials in the chemical, plastic and fibre industries, like other industries, requires detailed cost estimation during the evaluation stage. Considering either forward or backward integration requires a detailed understanding of the process economics, as does identifying the input variables that have the most impact on these economics. Whether to buy an interest in a supplier's plant or to buy stock as required, depends largely on the various pricing volatilities. Join Dr. Robin MacDonald, Managing Director, PCI Nylon, who will discuss a case study where the economics of a multi-step chemical process were modelled and will show how the manufacturing cost could potentially vary.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
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CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES |
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HANDBOOK:
 Six Sigma and Minitab: A complete toolbox guide for all Six Sigma practitioners, 2e
By Quentin Stephen Brook
Published by QSB Consulting, Copyright 2006
Spiral-bound, 240 pages
ISBN: 0954681320
The long awaited 2nd edition of this best selling pocket guide on Six Sigma contains a range of new tools and techniques including new Lean material and Improve tools. Cutting through Six Sigma's strange terminology and consultancy speak, this guide delivers Six Sigma in a down to earth, logical and user friendly format.
This edition has been updated for Minitab 15 (while still compatible with versions 13 and 14). For each Minitab tool, this guide details how to enter the data into Minitab, interpret the results and avoid the common pitfalls. All the data files and templates are available online, and a logical flow is provided through each DMAIC phase. A new two-page section also discusses an example of how Crystal Ball software can be used in conjunction with a Design of Experiments performed in Minitab. This textbook does not include a copy of Crystal Ball software.
> Learn more about this textbook
> Order this textbook from Amazon.com
RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Business Value Simulations Based on Basel II Business Case
This one-hour seminar features two speakers who will teach attendees new applications and best practices for using Crystal Ball in the Basel II area. Julia Stumpenhagen from just.dot GmbH talks about data quality and the important role it plays in the framework of Basel II-auditing. With more than ten years experience as a principal with various Fortune 500 companies, Julia is an expert in quality and test management of risk data. Johannes Ritter from Solution Matrix, has worked with just.dot to develop the business case model and set up the Crystal Ball simulation and discusses business case issues.
> View this recorded Web seminar
RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Simulation and Water Supply Forecasting
Some current and established techniques for determining water supplies have proven to be elementary and insufficient. Consequences of inaccurate water supply forecasting range from poor planting decisions by farmers to bad decision making about leasing water to uninformed decisions regarding exchanges of water.
Join John McKenzie, founder of Innovastat Corporation, as he demonstrates how he uses Monte Carlo simulation and regression methods to develop better water supply forecasting models in the West. He will present and comment on a variety of case studies of canal companies in Colorado.
> View this recorded Web seminar
 CB TIP:
Online Discussion Groups
The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is an excellent means for posting questions and receiving answers about Crystal Ball software (see below), and our User Conferences and Forums offer opportunities for exchanging information with fellow Crystal Ball software users. Yet we understand that the limitations of online postings and the timing of our live events may not satisfy all of our customers.
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CRYSTAL BALL® EVENTS
ISSSP 2007 Six Sigma Software Tour
March 29 -
Atlanta, GA
May 10 -
Phoenix, AZ
May 15 -
Chicago, IL
May 16 - Minneapolis, MN
Public Seminar: Mastering a Key Strategic ChallengeApril 23, 2007
Frankfurt, Germany
2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
May 21-23, 2007
Denver, Colorado
TRAINING SCHEDULE
Crystal Ball Classes
WESTERN US / CANADA
Denver, CO: Mar. 27-28
Salt Lake City, UT: Apr. 4-5
Seattle, WA: Apr. 10-11
Los Angeles, CA: Apr. 10-11
San Francisco, CA: Apr. 17-18
Denver, CO: Apr. 25-26
Las Vegas, NV: May 15-16
San Diego, CA: May 15-16
Denver, CO: May 16-17
Denver, CO: May 24-25
Phoenix, AZ: May 30-31
Anchorage, AK: Jun. 26-27
Denver, CO: Jun. 27-28
CENTRAL US / CANADA
Houston, TX: Apr. 3-4
Indianapolis, IN: Apr. 10-11
Milwaukee, WI: Apr. 10-11
Cincinnati, OH: Apr. 24-25
Detroit, MI: May 2-3
Dallas, TX: May 8-9
Minneapolis, MN: Jun. 6-7
Chicago, IL: Jun. 26-27
EASTERN US / CANADA
New York City, NY: Mar. 27-28
Orlando, FL: Apr. 17-18
Philadelphia, PA: Apr. 17-18
Ottawa, Canada: Apr. 25-26
New York City: May 1-2
Montreal, Canada: May 8-9
Atlanta, GA: May 30-31
Washington DC: Jun. 5-6
Toronto, Canada: Jun. 5-6
Islin, NJ: Jun. 12-13
Charlotte, NC: Jun. 12-13
King of Prussia, PA: Jun. 19-20
New York City: Jun. 27-28
EUROPE
London, England: May 8-9
Frankfurt, Germany: Jun. 12-13
London, England: Jun. 13-14
Munich, Germany: Jun. 19-20
LATIN AMERICA
Buenos Aires, Argentina: Apr. 11-12
Santiago, Chile: Apr. 16-17
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Melbourne, Australia: May 1-2
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: May 3-4
Sydney, Australia: May 7-8
Brisbane, Australia: May 10-11
Perth, Australia: May 14-15
Manila, Philippines: May 28-29
Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Houston, TX: Mar. 28-29
Dallas, TX: Apr. 3-4
Aberdeen, Scotland: May 30-31
Houston, TX: Jun. 19-20
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
Los Angeles, CA: Apr. 12
Denver, CO: Apr. 27
Toronto, Canada: Jun. 7
Introduction to Real Options
New York City: May 3
London, England: May 10
Denver, CO: May 18
Frankfurt, Germany: Jun. 14
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
Ottawa, Canada: Apr. 27
London, England: Jun. 15
King of Prussia, PA: Jun. 21
Suggest a training
date or location
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22nd Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium (HEES)
April 1-3
Dallas, TX
IQPC Design for Six Sigma Conference
April 3-4
Chicago, IL
DSI Western Region's 2007 (36th) Annual Meeting
April 3-7
Denver, CO
SPE Rocky Mountain Oil & Gas Technology Symposium
April 16-18
Denver, CO
Hyperion Solutions
April 22-25
Orlando, FL
WCBF Lean Six Sigma Summit
April 24-27, The Westin Chicago, IL
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If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
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Tomorrow's Forecast is an online production of Decisioneering, Inc. Newsletters are e-mailed to subscribers near the end of the first and third weeks of the month.
This e-mail newsletter is sent only to those individuals who either:
(1) Subscribed at our Web site, a training course, or a tradeshow, or
(2) Downloaded software from our Web site and requested more Decisioneering news.
To Subscribe
Subscriptions to Tomorrow's Forecast are FREE. Click here to subscribe.
To Unsubscribe
To unsubscribe, simply reply to the newsletter with the word 'UNSUBSCRIBE' as the subject of the e-mail. PLEASE leave the body of the message as you received it.
If the e-mail address from which you are replying is different than the one to which this e-mail was sent, please include your original e-mail address.
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You can also visit our Web site and follow the unsubscribe directions.
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As a solution, we are planning to launch a new Crystal Ball online discussion group in the near future. These discussion groups will be scheduled for one hour once a month. Using a new hosting technology, these meetings will give Crystal Ball software users the opportunity to meet online for an informal discussion on a different set topic each month. Our goal, as always, is to find new ways to foster the Crystal Ball community and help you to meet and network with like-minded peers.
If this is something in which you're interested, please respond to marcomm@crystalball.com and also indicate any topics of interest to you. Going forward, we will announce the time, date, topic, and details of each discussion group in this newsletter.
Share a comment, risk analysis tip or a new CB Tip with your fellow Crystal Ball users! Send your contribution to newsletter@crystalball.com.
> Previously published tips and techniques |
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MONTE CARLO IN THE NEWS |
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Golden Telecom Announces a 28% Year-on-Year Increase in Revenues Compared to 2005 and a 35% Increase in Net Income (Excluding Cost of Stock Appreciation Rights(1) ("SARs")
Source: Sys-Con Media, March 15, 2007
The Golden Telecom, Inc. 2005 Stock Appreciation Rights (SAR) Plan were approved by the Company's Board of Directors in September 2005. The fair value of each SAR award is estimated at the end of each reporting period using the Monte Carlo simulation-based valuation model.
Corporation says groups must use risk analysis model to prove eligibility for grant
Source: Inside Housing, March 8, 2007
Housing associations in the UK will have to reveal their borrowing capacity as a condition of bidding for social housing cash as part of the Housing Corporation’s bid to put a squeeze on their assets. Information on how much more they could stretch their lending portfolios will be supplied to the housing agency in a new financial model, called the ‘Monte Carlo analysis’.
Study Confirms That Significant Insulin Dose Errors Can Result When Blood Glucose Meters are Miscoded
Source: PR Newswire, March 1, 2007
When persons with diabetes use miscoded blood glucose meters to determine how much insulin to take, significant errors in insulin dose can result that may potentially lead to short- and long-term health complications, according to findings of a new study just published in the Journal of Diabetes Science and Technology. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted on the data from the clinical trial to generate 'ideal' and 'simulated-meter' glucose values, and subsequent probability of insulin dose errors based on normal and empirical distribution assumptions.
Read about Monte Carlo simulation in a recent article or paper? Let us know! Send your citation to newsletter@crystalball.com. |
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MICROSOFT EXCEL & THE WEB |
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WEB SITES:
Excel Dashboard Reporting Examples
http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel/HA012261271033.aspx
This article, by Charley Kyd, founder of ExcelUser.com, discusses a few of the ways in which Microsoft Excel can be used in dashboard reporting. A dashboard report is a way to visually present critical data in summary form so that you can make quick and effective decisions, in much the same way that a car dashboard works. This article includes a description of useful features for dashboards and five examples of professional dashboards created by the author.
Contextures
http://www.contextures.com/
Debra Dalgleish, a computer consultant in Ontario, Canada, has created an appealing site where visitors can find a wide variety of Excel tips, tutorials, and sample files. The tips section is especially content rich, with large sections on data validation and pivot tables. The site contains around a hundred example models as well that illustrate Excel modeling techniques.
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CBUG DISCUSSIONS |
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The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
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Latest topics:
- Error message - merged cells?
- Help with interpreting output results
- Graph of multiple assumptions
- Random Number Generator (RNG)
- CBDevKit VBA reference - Password?
- Problem with Batch Fit
- =Countif and extreme speed
> Click here to visit CBUG and register to become a member |
PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion.
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Copyright (c) 2007 Decisioneering, Inc. "Decisioneering" and "Crystal Ball" are registered trademarks of Decisioneering, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Microsoft and Excel are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.
Minitab and the Minitab logo are registered trademarks of Minitab Inc.
Yahoo! is a registered trademark of Yahoo! Inc.
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March 22, 2007
