Tomorrow's Forecast - Issue #200

April 21, 2007 | Issue 200 | www.crystalball.com

If you cannot read this newsletter, you can view it online at
http://www.crystalball.com/newsletters/newsletter200.html

Welcome to Issue #200 of Tomorrow's Forecast. Much has changed since Issue #1, such as:

Issue #1 (November, 1998)

Issue #200 (Present day)

Crystal Ball® 4.0e (aka CB Pro) Crystal Ball 7.3

One US office US, UK, and Germany offices

1-2 US training classes a month 14+ US and global training courses a month

No consulting services Active consulting services

7,000 newsletter subscribers 47,000 newsletter subscribers

As we celebrate this bicentennial issue, we're also making the exciting transformation from Decisioneering® to a wholly-owned subsidiary of both Hyperion® and now Oracle®. There's no better time to say thanks to you and our other subscribers and customers for your consistently enthusiastic support and feedback over the years. We look forward to bringing you simulation news and resources for years to come.

Happy forecasting!

Larry Goldman, Crystal Ball Newsletter Editor
newsletter@crystalball.com

IN THIS ISSUE

What’s New
- Crystal Ball 7.3 Released
- ISSSP Leadership Conference
- 2007 User Conference Is Four
Weeks Away!
- Upcoming Web Seminars

Crystal Ball® Resources
- Online Article: Simulation as Process
Control Aid
- Seminar: Cost Estimating
- Workshop: Developer Kit Applications
- CB Tip: Turning Crystal Ball On and
Off in Version 7.3

Monte Carlo in the News
- Smart Dust on Mars
- Prize for Investigative Simulation
- Analogue Design
- Anthrax Attack Response

Microsoft® Excel® & The Web
- Applied Forecasting

Crystal Ball Calendar

CBUG Discussions
Newsletter Subscription Information

WHAT'S NEW

Introducing Crystal Ball 7.3

Building on two decades of experience in the predictive analytics business, Crystal Ball 7.3 offers users new features, efficiency improvements and superior performance. New features include:

Windows Vista™ and Microsoft Office 2007 Compatibility. Crystal Ball 7.3 is the first release of the software officially supported on both Office 2007 and Windows Vista. Crystal Ball 7.3 now includes a new Microsoft Excel 2007 Crystal Ball ribbon for easy access to the tools and features. Users will be able to benefit from the new capabilities found in Excel 2007.
Scatter Charts. Crystal Ball 7.3 offers users the ability to create scatter charts, which display one set of numerical data along the x-axis and another along the y-axis. Scatter charts display correlations, linear regression lines, and other relationships between pairs of forecasts and assumptions plotted against each other. This additional investigative tool provides a visual way to make more informed decisions.
Ability to start and stop Crystal Ball inside Microsoft Excel. After Excel has started, users can now open and close Crystal Ball manually or automatically, depending on their preferences.
The betaPERT distribution. The betaPERT distribution describes a situation where you know the minimum, maximum, and most likely values to occur. This distribution is popular among project managers for estimating task durations and the overall length of a project.

> Visit our Web site to read more about this latest version and about upgrade eligibility

TAKE THE TOUR
Register for a free Web seminar and see what's new in Crystal Ball 7.3.

Crystal Ball software is a proud sponsor!

ISSSP 8th Annual Six Sigma Leadership Conference
May 7-10, 2007, Scottsdale, AZ
http://www.isssp.com/



	2007 User Conference Schedule is Four Weeks Away! The 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference will be held May 21-23, 2007, at the Westin Tabor Center, in beautiful Denver, Colorado. Join us at the 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference, a three-day event geared toward Crystal Ball users of all levels. The user conference will feature three days of case studies and workshops hosted by risk modeling professionals and simulation experts. 2007 is our best conference yet! This year, attendees will: Learn how Johnson & Johnson, one of the largest corporations in the US, uses Crystal Ball. Discover new strategies for using Crystal Ball through the people who know it best - other users. Network and exchange solutions with professionals in your industry who have successfully applied Crystal Ball. Take part in the first ever Monties Award ceremony, which recognizes modeling excellence. Preview new and upcoming technology in Crystal Ball. > Register to Attend Today! > View the outstanding 2007 conference schedule > Download the conference brochure Upcoming Web Seminars (1) I'll Be Back: DVD Sales Forecasting Date: Tuesday, April 24, 2007 Time: 9:00 am Mountain Daylight Time (Denver) Location: Your desk Before deciding to sell a DVD nationally, Ruse-Scheme Productions wants to be able to predict its sales. The company has developed a new tool that allows them to communicate with its current customers. The goal — to be able to gauge how many DVDs to create for newly released movies. The challenge — determining how reliable past behavior is at predicting future behavior. Join Michael Lieberman, President of Multivariate Solutions, and learn how Ruse-Scheme Productions has predicted future sales based on past behavior. > Register to attend this Web seminar (2) Integrating Risk Analysis Tools in Financial Analysis Date: Thursday, April 26, 2007 Time: 3.00pm GMT (London), 4.00pm CET (Amsterdam), 8.00am MST (Denver) Location: Your desk Forecasting, simulation, real options and optimisation techniques are increasingly popular tools that provide Financial Analysts with analytic power beyond the traditional toolset. This one-hour Web seminar, presented by Dave Hammal, Crystal Ball Product Consultant, is designed for both the beginner and advanced financial analyst and will fully cover the A to Z of applying risk analysis techniques. > Register to attend this Web seminar
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	CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES
	ONLINE ARTICLE: Using Monte Carlo Simulation as Process Control Aid Monte Carlo simulations are often used as a powerful tool in the Analyze or the Improve phase of a Six Sigma DMAIC project. For instance, Monte Carlo simulations can be used to improve the capability of processes. The Monte Carlo simulations can quantify the expected variation improvement. However, simulations are not only very powerful when utilized in the earlier phases of a DMAIC project, they also are a powerful tool in statistical process control. The power of Monte Carlo simulation lies in the ability to use a statistical model, take realistic variation into account and display the process output both in range and shape. This article is posted online on iSixSigma.com®, and the author, Dirk Jordan, Black Belt, Motorola will present a similar topic at the 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference. > View this entire article RECORDED WEB SEMINAR: Cost Estimating: "The Known Unknown" The purchasing of materials in the chemical, plastic and fibre industries, like other industries, requires detailed cost estimation during the evaluation stage. Considering either forward or backward integration requires a detailed understanding of the process economics, as does identifying the input variables that have the most impact on these economics. Whether to buy an interest in a supplier's plant or to buy stock as required, depends largely on the various pricing volatilities. Join Dr. Robin MacDonald, Managing Director, PCI Nylon, who will discuss a case study where the economics of a multi-step chemical process were modelled and will show how the manufacturing cost could potentially vary. > View this recorded Web seminar WORKSHOP: Automating Crystal Ball With the Developer Kit James G. Carper Jr., Senior Programmer Analyst, Oak Ridge Associated Universities Cincinnati Operations Center / MJW Corp Source: 2006 Crystal Ball User Conference In October 2000, the Energy Employees Occupational Illness Compensation Program Act (EEOICPA) was enacted. The Act requires a determination of dose received by workers from ionizing radiation. Such workers, who developed select cancers, may be entitled to compensation. Crystal Ball is being used extensively in radiation dose reconstruction for best-estimate dose calculations. Crystal Ball is used to multiply different distribution types to determine a resultant distribution for dose reconstruction. Long calculation times are common as thousands of forecasts are typically required for a single dose reconstruction. As an efficiency measure, the process has been automated to "pre-run" all the needed distribution combinations. We will present a walk-thru of how we utilize the advanced features of the Crystal Ball Developer Kit to automate Crystal Ball for radiation dose reconstruction. This will include challenges we encountered and resolutions we developed that might be of use to the Crystal Ball developer community. > View this workshop presentation (in Microsoft PowerPoint format) CB TIP: Turning Crystal Ball On and Off in Version 7.3 In Crystal Ball 7.x, you can use the Crystal Ball Application Manager (Start > Crystal Ball 7 > Application Manager) to define whether or not Crystal Ball software automatically starts with Microsoft Excel. Now, as of Crystal Ball 7.3, you have the ability to manually start and stop Crystal Ball from within Excel. For Excel 2000, XP, and 2003 To load Crystal Ball within Excel, follow these steps to display a list of available COM Add-ins: On the View menu, point to Toolbars, and then click Customize. Click the Commands tab. In the Categories box, click Tools. In the Commands box, select COM Add-Ins and drag it to a toolbar, for example, the Excel menu bar. On the toolbar, click COM Add-Ins to see a list of available add-ins. n the COM Add-Ins dialog, check Crystal Ball 7. lick OK to close the dialog and open Crystal Ball within Excel. To unload Crystal Ball from within Excel, follow step 1 and then uncheck Crystal Ball 7 in step 2. For Excel 2007 To load Crystal Ball within Excel: Click the Office button Click the Excel Options button, and then click the Add-Ins link. In the Manage list at the bottom of the Add-Ins dialog, choose COM Add-Ins and click Go. In the COM Add-Ins dialog, check Crystal Ball 7. Click OK to close the dialog and open Crystal Ball within Excel.


		CRYSTAL BALL CALENDAR
		CRYSTAL BALL EVENTS Crystal Ball Risk Analysis: Awareness For Six Sigma May 2, 2007 Jacksonville, FL ISSSP 2007 Six Sigma Software Tour May 10 - Scottsdale, AZ May 15 - Chicago, IL May 16 - Minneapolis, MN June 13 - Dallas, TX June 14 - Houston, TX June 20 - Denver, CO June 21 - Los Angeles, CA 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference May 21-23, 2007 Denver, CO TRAINING SCHEDULE Crystal Ball Classes WESTERN US / CANADA Denver, CO: Apr. 24-25 Las Vegas, NV: May 15-16 San Diego, CA: May 15-16 Denver, CO: May 16-17 Denver, CO: May 24-25 Phoenix, AZ: May 30-31 Anchorage, AK: Jun. 26-27 Denver, CO: Jun. 27-28 CENTRAL US / CANADA Cincinnati, OH: Apr. 24-25 Detroit, MI: May 2-3 Dallas, TX: May 8-9 Minneapolis, MN: Jun. 6-7 Chicago, IL: Jun. 26-27 EASTERN US / CANADA Washington DC: Apr. 24-25 Ottawa, Canada: Apr. 25-26 New York City: May 1-2 Montreal, Canada: May 8-9 Atlanta, GA: May 30-31 Washington DC: Jun. 5-6 Toronto, Canada: Jun. 5-6 Islin, NJ: Jun. 12-13 Charlotte, NC: Jun. 12-13 King of Prussia, PA: Jun. 19-20 New York City: Jun. 27-28 EUROPE London, England: May 8-9 Frankfurt, Germany: Jun. 12-13 London, England: Jun. 13-14 Munich, Germany: Jun. 19-20 LATIN AMERICA Lima, Peru: May 8-10 Mexico City, Mexico: May 15-17 Caracas, Venezuela: Jun. 12-14 ASIA / AUSTRALIA Melbourne, Australia: May 1-2 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: May 3-4 Sydney, Australia: May 7-8 Brisbane, Australia: May 10-11 Perth, Australia: May 14-15 Manila, Philippines: May 28-29 Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas Aberdeen, Scotland: May 30-31 Calgary, Canada: Jun. 5-6 Houston, TX: Jun. 19-20 Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma Denver, CO: Apr. 26 Toronto, Canada: Jun. 7 Introduction to Real Options New York City: May 3 London, England: May 10 Denver, CO: May 18 Frankfurt, Germany: Jun. 14 Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices Montreal, Canada: May 10 London, England: Jun. 15 King of Prussia, PA: Jun. 21 Chicago, IL: Jun. 28 Suggest a training date or location
		APPEARANCES
		Hyperion Solutions April 22-25 Orlando, FL WCBF Lean Six Sigma Summit April 24-27, The Westin Chicago, IL 2007 INFORMS Conference on O.R. Practice April 29-May 1 Vancouver, BC ISSSP 8th Annual Six Sigma Leadership Conference May 7-10 Scottsdale, AZ 4th Annual Canadian Six Sigma Summit May 30 - June 1 Toronto, ON
		YOUR FEEDBACK
		If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
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		Tomorrow's Forecast is an online production of Decisioneering, Inc. Newsletters are e-mailed to subscribers near the end of the first and third weeks of the month. This e-mail newsletter is sent only to those individuals who either: (1) Subscribed at our Web site, a training course, or a tradeshow, or (2) Downloaded software from our Web site and requested more Decisioneering news. To Subscribe Subscriptions to Tomorrow's Forecast are FREE. Click here to subscribe. To Unsubscribe To unsubscribe, simply reply to the newsletter with the word 'UNSUBSCRIBE' as the subject of the e-mail. PLEASE leave the body of the message as you received it. If the e-mail address from which you are replying is different than the one to which this e-mail was sent, please include your original e-mail address. AOL subscribers: Please state your name in the body of the message. You can also visit our Web site and follow the unsubscribe directions.

If you have Crystal Ball Professional or Premium Edition and are familiar with VBA programming, you can use the Crystal Ball Developer Kit to load and unload Crystal Ball from within Excel. For more information, open the Crystal Ball Developer Kit User Manual and look up the calls listed in the “Opening and closing Crystal Ball” section of Chapter 1.

Share a comment, risk analysis tip or a new CB Tip with your fellow Crystal Ball users! Send your contribution to newsletter@crystalball.com.

> Previously published tips and techniques

MONTE CARLO IN THE NEWS

Shape-shifting 'smart dust' may explore alien worlds
Source: NewScienctist.com, April 18, 2007

Thousands of miniscule wireless sensors, or "smart dust", could one day be used to explore other planets, swirling across the landscape by subtly altering their shape. At least, that's the exotic vision put forward in new computer simulations, where Monte Carlo simulation was used to reproduce the erratic behaviour of the Martian wind.

Two Pulitzer Prizes For the Wall Street Journal
Source: WebWire, April 16, 2006

The Wall Street Journal has been honored with two Pulitzer Prizes, one of which was the Public Service Gold Medal for uncovering the improper backdating by companies of executive stock options. Monte Carlo simulation was used by one of the authors to help identify which companies were most likely to have been backdating their options.

DATE: Cutting design time for analogue
Source: ElectronicsWeekly.com, April 13, 2007

Both digital and analogue design are about making trade-offs, but in analogue design there are far more variables which are more interdependent and there are fewer EDA tool options for analogue designers than for their digital counterparts. Monte Carlo analysis, which can aid design, assigns probability distribution to device parameters such as width, length, and resistance and to model parameters such as threshold voltage (Vth).

After small-scale anthrax attack: vaccinate, treat
Source: Yahoo!® News, April 10, 2006

In planning for the possibility of a small-scale bioterrorist anthrax attack like the one perpetrated via the US mail in 2001, the most cost-effective response is to vaccinate exposed persons and treat them with antibiotics, new research hints. Dr. Brian Schmitt, from the Hines VA Hospital in Illinois, and colleagues used Monte Carlo simulation over a 10-year time frame from a societal perspective to assess the most cost-effective response to an anthrax attack through US mail distribution centers in a large metropolitan area.

Read about Monte Carlo simulation in a recent article or paper? Let us know! Send your citation to newsletter@crystalball.com.

MICROSOFT EXCEL & THE WEB

WEB SITES:
Applied Forecasting
http://www.appliedforecasting.com

Applied Forecasting is a free and independent portal for the Forecasting community. The focus is to serve researchers, practitioners and students around the world with up to date information and facilitating online interaction. The site includes news, articles, an events calendar, Web links, and more. If you wish to post articles or events or to become more involved in this community, you need only to register to the site.

CBUG DISCUSSIONS

The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo! online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.