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IN THIS ISSUE |
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WHAT'S NEW |
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 User Conference Recap and Materials
So, for one of a hundred reasons, you managed to miss the 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference (CBUC) last month. You missed the informative keynotes, the practical case studies, and the challenging workshops. Not to mention the Monties Awards, the Monte Carlo Gambling evening, and the beauty of Colorado.
Wracked with regret, you can't help but wonder, "Isn't there some way to recapture a small taste of the experience and excitement of CBUC?" Lucky for you, the answer is YES.
Materials You Can Use and Learn From
Each year, our speakers kindly permit us to post a subset of their materials from the conference. Case study presenters produce short white papers for their talks, and workshop presenters provide their Microsoft® PowerPoint® files from their workshops. You can view these resources, as well as event reviews and press releases, on our CBUC Web site.
Podcast Interviews of Conference Speakers and Participants
Ken Rayment from BetterProcess.com, a Web site dedicated to discussing the latest manufacturing news, attended the 2007 CBUC and interviewed many of the speakers and participants, including keynote speaker Venky Gopalaswamy of Johnson & Johnson, Jim Franklin of Decisioneering®, and Loren Abdulezer of Evolving Technologies. For the complete list of interviews, visit: http://www.betterprocess.com/crystalball.htm
> View the extended list of ongoing process improvement podcasts
Crystal Ball software is a proud sponsor!
WCBF 3rd Annual Design for Six Sigma Conference
June 19-21, 2007, Chicago, IL
http://www.wcbf.com/quality/5075/
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Crystal Ball Education Alliance: Seeking Partners to Contribute to the Program
 For over twenty years, the Crystal Ball Education Alliance has offered high-quality, low-cost software to the Education Community. As we look to the future, our goals remain in focus: continue to provide affordable software, deliver an ever-growing set of tools and resources, and establish Crystal Ball software as an important part of your curricula.
By partnering with over 700 of the world’s top universities and colleges, we have built a successful program that teaches tomorrow’s leaders the technology of today. As the Education Alliance continues to flourish, one of our primary goals is to expand the resources and
tools available through our program.
With that in mind we turn to you, our experts in the field, to help
provide content and insight that will help us deliver relevant and useful resources. There are many ways
our partners can help us provide the most comprehensive set of resources in the industry, we hope you find one that works for you.
> Read about ways in which you can work with our Education Alliance
> Learn more about the Education Alliance
 Six Sigma Software Showcase Tour Continues in June
Crystal Ball software is teaming with other leading suppliers of software for Six Sigma and the ISSSP (International Society of Six Sigma Professionals) to present a free, half-day workshop to demonstrate the latest Six Sigma software tools, including Minitab® 15, GainSeeker®, RapAnalyst™, and Quality Companion™ 2.
Every attendee will receive a 30-day, single-user evaluation copy of each software package. Registration is required; space is limited. This is a must-attend workshop for:
- Practitioners who want to broaden their skill set,
- Leaders who need to plan the future of their toolset, and
- Anyone who wants a quick education on the best data tools in the Six Sigma market.
Calendar of Upcoming Showcases
June 13 - Dallas, TX
June 20 - Denver, CO
June 21 - Los Angeles, CA
>  See the schedule and register on the ISSSP Web site
 Upcoming Web Seminar
Estimating Waiting Targets for UK NHS Inpatients, Outpatients and Diagnostic - Needed to Achieve the 18-Week Target
Date: Thursday, June 21, 2007
Time: 3.00pm BST (London)
Location: Your desk
By December 2008, all UK NHS patients must receive their first treatment at a hospital within 18 weeks of referral. Given the current backlog, lack of funding and the general complexity of healthcare pathways, this is a difficult objective for the NHS Trusts to achieve. In this one-hour Crystal Ball Web seminar, join Jorge Villacampa-Ortega from Barts and The London NHS Trust who will discuss a powerful planning tool which was developed using stochastic modelling to: (1) assess which waiting time targets (Inpatient, Outpatient and Diagnostic) are needed in order to meet the Department of Health 18 weeks target, and (2) identify bottlenecks in patient pathways.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
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CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES |
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RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
The Value of Predictive Analytics in Strategic Corporate Finance
Monte Carlo simulation provides significant insight into the aggregate effects of risk and uncertainty in a wide range of corporate financial analyses, from corporate valuation for a merger or acquisition, to complex project planning and capital allocation decisions. Join Steve Hoye, Senior Crystal Ball Risk Consultant, as he gives a high-level overview of how simulation and optimization can be used in these important tasks, and discusses the benefits that can be gained over typical deterministic analytics.
> View this recorded Web seminar
RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Portfolio Optimisation in Oil & Gas: An Analysis of Risk and Real Options and Their Contribution to Efficient Capital Allocation
How do you figure out which upstream oil and gas projects will be strong contributors to the company and which will be a waste of corporate time and effort? During this one-hour Web seminar, join Dave Hammal of Crystal Ball, who will talk about analysing an optimised portfolio of capital projects and examine the sources of systematic and unsystematic risk. We will see how this can help in our funding decisions and the different impacts on the portfolio and its risk/return characteristics.
> View this recorded Web seminar
 ONLINE ARTICLE
DFSS team looks into "crystal ball"
Source: Six Sigma Quality in Manufacturing (Society of Manufacturing Engineers), May 21, 2007
Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) tools and techniques, including advanced software, were used to achieve a compressor prototype with minimal defects, and without spending a lot of time or money. Learn what steps the design team followed as it worked through the DMADV (define, measure, analyze, design, verify) process.
> View this online article on the Six Sigma Quality in Manufacturing Web site
WHITE PAPER
Assessing the Economic Feasibility of the Waste to Energy Facility Using Crystal Ball
Boguslaw Bieda, Ph.D., AGH-University of Science and Technology
Source: 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
The purpose of this paper is to assess the economic feasibility of the waste to energy pyrolysis facility designs for City of Konin, in Poland and to use internal rate of return (IRR) and net present value (NPV) measures to evaluate new gasification plant projects based on the American gasification technology (design at 200 T/D), including a fifteen-year income statement projection.
Two different scenarios of the economic feasibility were studied for the municipal solid waste process via incineration, based on different pyrolysis processing systems. Electricity, for example, can be produced with technologies with quite diverse environmental properties. The new Polish environmental strategy emphasizes the principle of sustainable development and it encourages the government of Konin to develop a waste management plan for their communities based on the use the technology for a gasification with waste to energy system.
The benefits of Monte Carlo simulation are savings in time and resources. Crystal Ball software eliminates the need to run, test, and present multiple spreadsheets. Crystal Ball can handle a dozen assumptions simultaneously, and can establish correlation coefficients among variables. Most stochastic investment project models show that projects request more resources than expected. Traditional methods cannot answer the important questions of how likely are we to overrun, and where is the
risk in the project.
> View the entire white paper
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CRYSTAL BALL EVENTS
ISSSP 2007 Six Sigma Software Tour
June 13 - Dallas, TX
June 20 - Denver, CO
June 21 - Los Angeles, CA
TRAINING SCHEDULE
Crystal Ball Classes
WESTERN US / CANADA
Anchorage, AK: Jun. 26-27
Denver, CO: Jun. 27-28
Seattle, WA: Jul. 18-19
Winnipeg, Canada: Jul. 24-25
Denver, CO: Jul. 24-25
Anaheim, CA: Jul. 31- Aug. 1
Boise, ID: Aug. 7-8
Denver, CO: Aug. 14-15
San Francisco, CA: Aug. 21-22
Albuquerque, NM: Sep. 5-6
Phoenix, AZ: Sep. 11-12
San Diego, CA: Sep. 18-19
Denver, CO: Sep. 18-19
Seattle, WA: Sep. 25-26
CENTRAL US / CANADA
Chicago, IL: Jun. 19-20
Dallas, TX: Jul. 10-11
Des Moines, IA: Jul. 10-11
San Antonio, TX: Jul. 17-18
Little Rock/Rogers, AR: Jul. 17-18
Milwaukee, WI: Jul. 17-18
Birmingham, AL: Jul. 24-25
Louisville, KY: Aug. 7-8
St. Louis, MO: Aug. 14-15
Austin, TX: Aug. 28-29
Kansas City, KS: Aug. 28-29
Chicago, IL: Aug. 28-29
Minneapolis, MN: Sep. 11-12
Cincinnati, OH: Sep. 18-19
Omaha, NE: Sep. 25-26
EASTERN US / CANADA
King of Prussia, PA: Jun. 19-20
New York City: Jun. 27-28
Pittsburgh, PA: Jul. 10-11
Washington DC: Jul. 10-11
Ottawa, Canada: Jul. 24-25
Tampa, FL: Jul. 31-Aug. 1
New York City, NY: Jul. 31- Aug. 1
Boston, MA: Aug. 7-8
Washington DC: Aug. 14-15
Raleigh, NC: Aug. 21-22
Toronto, Canada: Aug. 21-22
New Orleans, LA: Sep. 5-6
Rochester, NY: Sep. 5-6
Montreal, Canada: Sep. 11-12
Philadelphia, PA: Sep. 11-12
New York City, NY: Sep. 18-19
Washington DC: Sep. 25-26
Jacksonville, FL: Sep. 25-26
EUROPE
London, England: Jun. 13-14
London, England: Jul. 24-26
London, England: Sep. 4-6
Frankfurt, Germany: Sep. 18-10
LATIN AMERICA
Caracas, Venezuela: Jun. 12-14
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Manila, Philippines: May 28-29
Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Houston, TX: Jun. 19-20
Calgary, Canada: Jun 5-6
Oklahoma City, OK: Aug 14-15
Houston, TX: Sep 5-6
Aberdeen, Scotland: Sep. 12-13
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
Des Moines, IA: Jul 12
Boston, MA: Aug 9
Washington DC: Aug 16
Chicago, IL: Aug 30
Montreal, Canada: Sep 13
San Diego, CA: Sep 19
Jacksonville, FL: Sep 27
Introduction to Real Options
Chicago, IL: Jun 21
Calgary, Canada: Aug 9
Denver, CO: Aug 16
New York City, NY: Sep 20
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
London, England: Jun 15
King of Prussia, PA: Jun 21
Washington DC: Jul 12
Ottawa, Canada: Jul 26
Toronto, Canada: Aug 23
Washington DC: Sep 27
Suggest a training
date or location
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Canadian International Petroleum Conference
June 12-14
Calgary, Canada
International Joint ISPA-SCEA Conference
June 12-16
New Orleans, LA
EXPONOR 2007
June 18-22
Antofagasta, Chile
WCBF 3rd Annual Design for Six Sigma Conference
June 19-21
Chicago, IL
Lean and Six Sigma for Defense
June 25-28
Del Mar, CA
SPE International Oil Conference and Exhibition in Mexico
June 28-30
Veracruz, Mexico
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If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
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Tomorrow's Forecast is an online production of Decisioneering, Inc. Newsletters are e-mailed to subscribers near the end of the first and third weeks of the month.
This e-mail newsletter is sent only to those individuals who either:
(1) Subscribed at our Web site, a training course, or a tradeshow, or
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You can also visit our Web site and follow the unsubscribe directions.
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CB TIP:
The BetaPERT Distribution
Our most recent version of Crystal Ball (version 7.3) introduced a new distribution: the BetaPERT distribution. This distribution can be used to describe a situation where you know the minimum, maximum, and most likely values to occur.
The BetaPERT distribution is popular among project managers for estimating task durations and the overall length of a project. For example, you could estimate the duration of a project task which historically takes 7 days to complete, on average, but has taken as few as 5 days under favorable conditions and as long as 12 days in some extreme circumstances. You would define the distribution as shown in the figure below.
The BetaPERT can also be used in the same situations where a triangular distribution would be used. However, the underlying distribution is smoothed to reduce the peakedness of a standard triangular distribution.
| Share a comment, risk analysis tip or a new CB Tip with your fellow Crystal Ball software users! Send your contribution to newsletter@crystalball.com. |
> Previously published tips and techniques
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CONFERENCE ROUNDUP |
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Our roundup is a list of risk-related events that we publish in the first newsletter of each month. We highlight the events of the next month to give you enough lead time to register for any that interest you.
August 2007
Annual Meeting of the American Risk and Insurance Association
American Risk and Insurance Association (ARIA)
August 5-8, Quebec City, Canada
Loews Le Concorde Hotel
http://www.aria.org
International Conference on Continuous Optimization ICCOPT07-MOPTA07
Mathematical Programming Society (MPS)
August 12-16, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
McMaster University
http://iccopt-mopta.mcmaster.ca/
AGRIP Institute for Management & Leadership
Association of Governmental Risk Pools (AGRIP)
August 13-15, Cleveland, OH
The Ritz Carlton
http://www.agrip.org/semi.html
6th International Copper/Cobre Conference 
August 27-28, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Royal York Hotel
http://www.metsoc.org/com2007/
> Visit our Web site for the entire list of events (or to suggest an event for us to include) |
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MONTE CARLO IN THE NEWS |
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Geoinformatics' Proprietary Targeting Techniques Uncover New Copper-Gold-Silver-Molybdenum Zones in Sonora, Mexico
Source: Yahoo!® Finance, May 10, 2007
The application of Geoinformatics' proprietary "MOCA" targeting techniques has led to the discovery of new copper-gold-silver-molybdenum surface zones on two recently-acquired properties in Sonora. The company's core targeting technology is based on the application of spatial Monte Carlo Analysis ("MOCA").
Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Hospital Pharmacy Bar Code Solution
Source: Archives of Internal Medicine, April 23, 2007 (Arch Intern Med. 2007;167:788-794)
Monte Carlo simulation helped to prove that the implementation of a bar code–assisted medication-dispensing system in hospital pharmacies can result in a positive financial return on investment for the health care organization. This is only a summary, with paid access available to the full paper.
The application of statistical tools to business continuity management
Source: Continuity Central.COM, April , 2007
The arrival of the Basel II Capital Accord has stimulated a lot of research into risk management techniques particularly in the area of operational risk. This article reviews two powerful modern techniques, one of which is Monte Carlo simulation, that have gained widespread acceptance in other areas of risk management and examines whether they can usefully be applied to business continuity management.
Read about Monte Carlo simulation in a recent article or paper? Let us know! Send your citation to newsletter@crystalball.com.
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CBUG DISCUSSIONS |
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The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo! online forum where Crystal Ball software users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion.
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Copyright (c) 2007 Decisioneering, Inc. "Decisioneering" and "Crystal Ball" are registered trademarks of Decisioneering, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Microsoft and PowerPoint are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.
Minitab and the Minitab logo are registered trademarks and Quality Companion is a trademark of Minitab Inc.
GainSeeker
is a registered trademark of Hertzler Systems, Inc.
RapAnalyst is a trademark of Raptor International.
Yahoo! is a registered trademark of Yahoo! Inc.
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June 8, 2007
