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IN THIS ISSUE |
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WHAT'S NEW |
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Reminder: Crystal Ball® Software Is Now Owned By Oracle Corporation
 As was announced in April, 2007, Decisioneering is now part of Oracle | Hyperion. Oracle acquired Hyperion to extend their business intelligence product strategy. This change in no way affects our relationship with customers and partners: you can continue to use your existing contacts for professional support, services, and sales. Decisioneering, as a company name, will no longer exist, but Crystal Ball software will continue forward as an Oracle product.
In the coming months, look for more announcements concerning Crystal Ball software and Oracle.
> Read the press release announcing the acquisition of Hyperion by Oracle
Crystal Ball Software is a Proud Sponsor
IQPC's Lean Six Sigma Improvement Week 2007
Sept 18 - 21, 2007,
The Venetian - Las Vegas, NV
http://www.sixsigmasummit.com/
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 Upcoming Web Seminars
(1) Monte Carlo Simulation as Process Control Aid
Date: Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Time: 9:00 am Mountain Daylight Time (Denver)
Location: Your desk
Statistically designed experiments (DOEs) have become an essential tool in many fields of research because they can lead to rapid learning and optimization in less time and with less cost. Recent advances in computer technology have resulted in the merging of statistically designed experiments with powerful computer-based Monte Carlo simulations. Join Dirk Jordan, Ph.D., Six Sigma Black Belt at Motorola, as he demonstrates the power of Monte Carlo simulation and its ability to be used with a statistical model, to take realistic variation into account and display process output data both in range and shape. Dirk will show how both range and shape can provide valuable information on the process and its underlying dynamics.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
(2) Global Warming – Will We Bake or Not?
Date: Thursday, July 19, 2007
Time: 10:00 am Mountain Daylight Time (Denver)
Location: Your desk
Climatologists debate whether carbon dioxide’s (CO2) impact on global temperature is linear or logarithmic. What difference could this possibly make in temperature increase? Join Gaetan ‘Guy’ Lion, Vice President, Planning and Analysis, at a major financial services company, as he shows a Monte Carlo simulation model that forecasts global temperature increase by 2100 using both a linear and logarithmic relationship between CO2 concentration (independent variable) and temperature (dependent variable). The model generates probability distributions of temperature increase by 2100. The model also clearly illustrates the difference it makes whether CO2 impact on temperature follows a linear or a logarithmic function.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
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CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES |
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RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Estimating Waiting Targets for UK NHS Inpatients, Outpatients and Diagnostic - Needed to Achieve the 18-Week Target
By December 2008, all UK NHS patients must receive their first treatment at a hospital within 18 weeks of referral. Given the current backlog, lack of funding and the general complexity of healthcare pathways, this is a difficult objective for the NHS Trusts to achieve. In this one-hour Crystal Ball Web seminar, join Jorge Villacampa-Ortega from Barts and The London NHS Trust who will discuss a powerful planning tool which was developed using stochastic modelling to: (1) assess which waiting time targets (Inpatient, Outpatient and Diagnostic) are needed in order to meet the Department of Health 18 weeks target, and (2) identify bottlenecks in patient pathways.
> View this recorded Web seminar
RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Effective Techniques and Tools for Modeling Very Large Spreadsheet Simulations
One of the benefits of using Crystal Ball software within Microsoft® Excel® is that it is immediately intuitive and easy to use. Because Crystal Ball software users are unconstrained, they are free to design and build simulation models as large and as complex as they please. As spreadsheets become large or complex they become increasingly more challenging to handle and maintain. Please join Loren Abdulezer, CEO of Evolving Technologies Corporation, as he identifies some best practices and effective techniques for Crystal Ball models. He will specifically focus on reducing common problems that plague large and complex spreadsheets.
> View this recorded Web seminar
RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Cost and Risk Modelling - The Challenging Business Driver
Organisations today are increasingly challenged with cost and risk modelling. Join Professor Rajkumar Roy for this one-hour Crystal Ball Web seminar and learn about these challenges and why they have become a business driver. Professor Roy leads the Cost Engineering research group at Cranfield University. He will share his over 10 years of experience in working with several industries in this area. The seminar will provide case study examples and discuss the major issues in industry both from customer and supplier perspectives.
> View this recorded Web seminar
 SUCCESS STORY
Forecasting Mine Production
Mining companies are often forced to make high-level decisions on resource allocation, customer contracts and analyst guidance without knowing their actual production numbers. To make more educated decisions, companies attempt to develop monthly and quarterly production forecasts. However, creating accurate forecasts is difficult.
 One of the largest copper companies in the world was frequently unable to meet their production forecasts, wasn’t accounting for uncertainty and wanted to understand and better manage the variability in actual production. After several attempts to design an accurate production forecasting system for one of their mines, they sought assistance from Decisioneering Services.
> View the entire success story
CB TIP:
Alternate Parameter Sets
What if you need to define a probability distribution but have no clue as to the shape, location, standard deviation, or other default parameter?
For all the continuous probability distributions except Uniform, Crystal Ball lets you define the distributions using percentiles for parameters. This option gives you the flexibility to set up assumptions when only percentile information is available or when specific attributes (such as the mean and standard deviation) of the variable in your model are unknown. To change the parameter sets for the continuous distributions, use the Parameters menu in the Define Assumption dialog.
In addition to the standard parameter set, each continuous distribution’s Parameters menu has additional pre-defined parameter sets that include various combinations of the standard parameters and percentiles. There is also a Custom command that lets you define your own parameter set. If you choose Parameters > Custom, you can replace any or all of the standard parameters with any percentile.
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TRAINING SCHEDULE
Crystal Ball Classes
WESTERN US / CANADA
Seattle, WA: Jul. 17-18
Edmonton, AB: Jul. 24-25
Seattle, WA: Jul. 18-19
Winnipeg, Canada: Jul. 24-25
Denver, CO: Jul. 24-25
Anaheim, CA: Jul. 31- Aug. 1
Boise, ID: Aug. 7-8
Denver, CO: Aug. 21-22
San Francisco, CA: Aug. 21-22
Albuquerque, NM: Sep. 5-6
Phoenix, AZ: Sep. 11-12
San Diego, CA: Sep. 18-19
Denver, CO: Sep. 18-19
Seattle, WA: Sep. 25-26
CENTRAL US / CANADA
San Antonio, TX: Jul. 17-18
Little Rock/Rogers, AR: Jul. 17-18
Milwaukee, WI: Jul. 17-18
Birmingham, AL: Jul. 24-25
Louisville, KY: Aug. 7-8
St. Louis, MO: Aug. 14-15
Austin, TX: Aug. 28-29
Kansas City, KS: Aug. 28-29
Chicago, IL: Aug. 28-29
Minneapolis, MN: Sep. 11-12
Cincinnati, OH: Sep. 18-19
Omaha, NE: Sep. 25-26
EASTERN US / CANADA
Ottawa, Canada: Jul. 24-25
Tampa, FL: Jul. 31-Aug. 1
New York City, NY: Jul. 31- Aug. 1
Boston, MA: Aug. 7-8
Washington DC: Aug. 14-15
Raleigh, NC: Aug. 21-22
Toronto, Canada: Aug. 21-22
New Orleans, LA: Sep. 5-6
Rochester, NY: Sep. 5-6
Montreal, Canada: Sep. 11-12
Philadelphia, PA: Sep. 11-12
New York City, NY: Sep. 18-19
Washington DC: Sep. 25-26
Jacksonville, FL: Sep. 25-26
EUROPE
London, England: Jul. 24-26
London, England: Sep. 4-6
Frankfurt, Germany: Sep. 18-20
Paris, France: Oct. 3-5
LATIN AMERICA
Visit the Web site for updates
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Visit the Web site for updates
Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Calgary, AB: Aug 7-8
Oklahoma City, OK: Aug. 14-15
Houston, TX: Sep. 5-6
Aberdeen, Scotland: Sep. 12-13
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
Boston, MA: Aug. 9
Washington DC: Aug. 16
Chicago, IL: Aug. 30
Montreal, Canada: Sep. 13
San Diego, CA: Sep. 20
Jacksonville, FL: Sep. 27
Introduction to Real Options
Calgary, Canada: Aug. 9
Denver, CO: Aug. 23
New York City, NY: Sep. 20
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
Ottawa, Canada: Jul. 26
Toronto, Canada: Aug. 23
Washington DC: Sep. 27
Suggest a training
date or location
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The AACE International 2007, 51st Annual Meeting
July 15-18
Nashville, TN
COM 2007- 46th Conference of Metallurgists hosting Cu2007 the 6th Copper/Cobre Conference
August 27-28
Toronto, Canada
ISSSP Leadership Conference
September 13-14
Monterrey, Mexico
WCBF’s 2nd Annual Global Six Sigma Summit & Awards
October 23-26
Las Vegas, NV
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If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
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Tomorrow's Forecast is an online production of Crystal Ball software. Newsletters are e-mailed to subscribers near the end of the first and third weeks of the month.
This e-mail newsletter is sent only to those individuals who either:
(1) Subscribed at our Web site, a training course, or a tradeshow, or
(2) Downloaded software from our Web site and requested more Decisioneering news.
To Subscribe
Subscriptions to Tomorrow's Forecast are FREE. Click here to subscribe.
To Unsubscribe
To unsubscribe, simply reply to the newsletter with the word 'UNSUBSCRIBE' as the subject of the e-mail. PLEASE leave the body of the message as you received it.
If the e-mail address from which you are replying is different than the one to which this e-mail was sent, please include your original e-mail address.
AOL subscribers: Please state your name in the body of the message.
You can also visit our Web site and follow the unsubscribe directions.
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CONFERENCE ROUNDUP |
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Our roundup is a list of risk-related events that we publish in the first newsletter of each month. We highlight the events of the next month to give you enough lead time to register for any that interest you.
September 2007
6th EUROSIM Congress on Modelling and Simulation
September 9-13,
Ljubljana, Slovenia
University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Electrical Engineering
http://www.eurosim2007.org/
ISSSP Leadership Conference 
International Society of Six Sigma Professionals (ISSSP)
September 13-14, 2007, Monterrey, Mexico
http://www.isssp.com/?page=product_profile&show=9381
URMIA 2007—Peak Performance: Scaling the Future of Risk
University Risk Management and Insurance Association (URMIA)
September 15-19, Denver, CO
Westin Tabor Center
http://www.urmia.org/denver2007/
RIMS Canada Conference
Risk and Insurance Management Society (RIMS) Canada
September 16-19, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
World Trade and Convention Center
http://rimscanada.rims.org/
Lean Six Sigma Improvement Week 2007
Six Sigma IQ
September 18-21, Las Vegas, NV
Venetian Hotel
http://www.iqpc.co.uk/cgi-bin/templates/singlecell.html?topic=241&event=13405
SRMC Fall Conference
Society of Risk Management Consultants (SRMC)
September 26-29, Captiva Island, FL
'Tween Waters Inn
http://www.srmcsociety.org/conference.html
NRRA National Conference
National Risk Retention Association (NRRA)
September 26-28, Washington, DC
M Street Hotel
http://www.nrra-usa.org/calender_conference.htm
> Visit our Web site for the entire list of events (or to suggest an event for us to include) |
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SPEAKING OPPORTUNITIES |
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These conferences have announced a call for speakers. If you wish to submit a talk that discusses Crystal Ball software in some aspect, and if that talk is accepted, please let us know. We are always willing to offer some form of support to our customers.
 The Huntsville Simulation Conference 2007
October 30, 2007 - The Advanced Research Center (ARC)
October 31 - November 1, 2007 - The Huntsville Marriott Hotel
Sponsored by The Society for Modeling and Simulation International and hosted by
The Alabama Modeling and Simulation Council (AMSC)
The Huntsville Simulation Conference (HSC) is an annual conference located in Huntsville, Alabama with international participation. Abstracts and papers are accepted only in electronic form. The final unclassified proceedings are available on CD and in print. The HSC seeks technical papers, briefings, tutorials, panel discussions, session organizers and session chairs in a wide range of topic areas.
The Call for Papers is located at http://www.scs.org/confernc/hsc/hsc07/cfp/hsc07.htm. |
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CBUG DISCUSSIONS |
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The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo! online forum where Crystal Ball software users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion.
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Copyright (c) 2007 Oracle Corporation
Oracle, JD Edwards, PeopleSoft, Hyperion and Siebel are registered trademarks of Oracle Corporation and/or its affiliates.
Microsoft and PowerPoint are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.
Yahoo! is a registered trademark of Yahoo! Inc.
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July 12, 2007
