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IN THIS ISSUE |
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WHAT'S NEW |
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Introducing Your New Editor – Jackie Farritor
It is my great pleasure to introduce Jackie Farritor, who will be phasing in as the new editor of Tomorrow’s Forecast over the next few issues. Jackie has been involved in all aspects of Crystal Ball marketing over the last three years, and you may recognize her name (or voice!) from her stint as a Web seminar host or her appearances at conferences and tradeshows. Jackie’s new position comes with many challenges, not the least of which is the integration of Crystal Ball with the Oracle brand and style.
How Can You Help Jackie Succeed?
As the new editor, Jackie would appreciate any Crystal Ball related content that you would be willing to share. Are you planning on speaking at a conference or seminar about Crystal Ball? Are you publishing a new book or paper that other users would be interested in reading? Do you have an example model that shows Crystal Ball in a real-world application? Please consider sharing your expertise with Jackie and the greater Crystal Ball community. All materials (sent to newsletter@crystalball.com) are welcome!
For my part, I would like to thank you for your feedback, contributions, and attention over the last eight years and 200+ issues. Happy forecasting!
Larry Goldman
(Nearly Past) Newsletter Editor
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Crystal Ball Global Business Unit Is Finalist In Colorado Biz/UMB Competition
Crystal Ball global business unit was nominated for the 2007 Colorado Biz/UMB, "Top Company" business awards competition in the Technology/Media/Telecom category. And we are one of only three finalists in this category!
The mission of the "Top Company" competition is to recognize Colorado's most outstanding businesses. Nominees were judged in three areas 1) Financial performance, 2) Community involvement and 3) Either marketing/product innovation, operational efficiency, or research development.
Winners will be announced September 12th at the "Top Company" awards luncheon. Stay tuned to hear how we did!
 Upcoming Web Seminars
(1) Evaluating Mining Projects Using Monte Carlo Simulation
Date: Tuesday, August 7, 2007
Time: 9:00 am Mountain Daylight Time (Denver)
Location: Your desk
Mining companies typically use a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach to compare different projects. This approach, however, does not allow management to identify and quantify the risks associated with the project and results in inaccurate production forecasting. Mining companies generally do some type of sensitivity analysis (e.g. vary the metal price), but this only tells them at what metal price the project will fail, not the probability of failure. In addition, there are many other parameters that can impact the project’s success.
Please join Nathan Stubina of Barrick Gold as he discusses mining projects that are particularly well-suited to using Crystal Ball's Monte Carlo approach.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
(2) "Wattski, How Is Our Cash Position Looking?"
Date: Thursday, August 9, 2007
Time: 9:00 am Mountain Daylight Time (Denver)
Location: Your desk
This seminar is not just for financial analysts and treasury specialists, but will also be a fun journey for anyone who has correlations, causality, or just plain old “knotty” data in their models, and would like to see that they are certainly not alone!
In this one-hour Crystal Ball Web seminar, Brian Watt of GECC, a consumer-based lending institution, will cover:
- Causal relationships in cash flow modeling;
- Quantifying uncertainties regarding customer payment habits;
- Quantifying uncertainties in marketing expense, and their impact on future revenue streams;
- Second order non-parametric distributions;
- Using “averages” in a model, which is not always a risk modeling “sin” (just most of the time!);
- How granular modeled data should be.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
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CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES |
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RECORDED ACADEMIC WEB SEMINAR:
Valuation of Weather Derivatives
Weather-related risks affect businesses all over the world. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has estimated that nearly 20 percent of the U.S. economy is directly affected by the weather, and that the profitability and revenues of virtually every industry – agriculture, energy, entertainment, construction, travel, and others – depend to a great extent on temperature. However, it has taken many years for companies to place importance on and manage their weather-related risks in a similar manner to their financial risks. Join Jiri Hnilica, Associate Professor in the Department of Business Economics at the University of Economics in Prague, Czech Republic, as he uses Crystal Ball to develop an easy-to-use framework for valuation of weather derivatives.
> View this recorded Web seminar
RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Global Warming – Will We Bake or Not?
Climatologists debate whether carbon dioxide’s (CO2) impact on global temperature is linear or logarithmic. What difference could this possibly make in temperature increase?
Please join Gaetan ‘Guy’ Lion, Vice President, Planning and Analysis, at a major financial services company, as he shows a Crystal Ball Monte Carlo simulation model that forecasts global temperature increase by 2100 using both a linear and logarithmic relationship between CO2 concentration (independent variable) and temperature (dependent variable). The model generates probability distributions of temperature increase by 2100. The model also clearly illustrates the difference it makes whether CO2 impact on temperature follows a linear or a logarithmic function.
> View this recorded Web seminar
RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Monte Carlo Simulation as Process Control Aid
Statistically designed experiments (DOEs) have become an essential tool in many fields of research because they can lead to rapid learning and optimization in less time and with less cost. Recent advances in computer technology have resulted in the merging of statistically designed experiments with powerful computer-based Monte Carlo simulations.
Join Dirk Jordan, Ph.D., Six Sigma Black Belt at Motorola, as he uses Crystal Ball to demonstrate the power of Monte Carlo simulation and its ability to be used with a statistical model, to take realistic variation into account and display process output data both in range and shape. Dirk will show how both range and shape can provide valuable information on the process and its underlying dynamics.
> View this recorded Web seminar
 WHITE PAPER
BRIDGE CROSSINGS OF AL REEM ISLAND, ABU DHABI
Lim Eng Hwa,
Hyder Consulting Middle East Ltd
Source: 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
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TRAINING SCHEDULE
Crystal Ball Classes
WESTERN US / CANADA
Anaheim, CA: Jul. 31- Aug. 1
Denver, CO: Aug. 21-22
San Francisco, CA: Aug. 21-22
Phoenix, AZ: Sep. 11-12
San Diego, CA: Sep. 18-19
Denver, CO: Sep. 18-19
Seattle, WA: Sep. 25-26
CENTRAL US / CANADA
St. Louis, MO: Aug. 14-15
Austin, TX: Aug. 28-29
Kansas City, KS: Aug. 28-29
Chicago, IL: Aug. 28-29
Minneapolis, MN: Sep. 11-12
Cincinnati, OH: Sep. 18-19
EASTERN US / CANADA
New York City, NY: Jul. 31- Aug. 1
Washington DC: Aug. 14-15
Raleigh, NC: Aug. 21-22
Toronto, Canada: Aug. 21-22
Rochester, NY: Sep. 5-6
Philadelphia, PA: Sep. 11-12
New York City, NY: Sep. 18-19
Washington DC: Sep. 25-26
EUROPE
London, England: Sep. 4-6
Frankfurt, Germany: Sep. 18-20
Paris, France: Oct. 3-5
LATIN AMERICA
Visit the Web site for updates
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Visit the Web site for updates
Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Calgary, AB: Aug 7-8
Oklahoma City, OK: Aug. 14-15
Houston, TX: Sep. 5-6
Aberdeen, Scotland: Sep. 12-13
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
Boston, MA: Aug. 9
Washington DC: Aug. 16
Chicago, IL: Aug. 30
Montreal, Canada: Sep. 13
San Diego, CA: Sep. 20
Jacksonville, FL: Sep. 27
Introduction to Real Options
Calgary, Canada: Aug. 9
Denver, CO: Aug. 23
New York City, NY: Sep. 20
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
Toronto, Canada: Aug. 23
Washington DC: Sep. 27
Suggest a training
date or location
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COM 2007- 46th Conference of Metallurgists hosting Cu2007 the 6th Copper/Cobre Conference
August 27-28
Toronto, Canada
ISSSP Leadership Conference
September 13-14
Monterrey, Mexico
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If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
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Tomorrow's Forecast is an online production of Decisioneering, Inc. Newsletters are e-mailed to subscribers near the end of the first and third weeks of the month.
This e-mail newsletter is sent only to those individuals who either:
(1) Subscribed at our Web site, a training course, or a tradeshow, or
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If the e-mail address from which you are replying is different than the one to which this e-mail was sent, please include your original e-mail address.
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You can also visit our Web site and follow the unsubscribe directions.
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Al Reem Island is an 860 hectare island off the coast of Abu Dhabi, the capital of United Arab Emirates. Three developers
are planning high density developments with luxury residential apartments, offices, commercial and retail. In view of
the uncertainty of its ultimate population and employee size, rate of the development rate, the percentage of residential
units as holiday homes, their occupancy rates as well as the vehicle occupancy rates, it becomes difficult to estimate
how many bridge crossings and number of traffic lanes are required.
Several options were presented where Crystal Ball Monte Carlo
simulation was used to highlight the risks involved in selecting the preferred option by the developers.
> View the entire white paper
CB TIP:
Comparing Run Modes (Extreme Speed vs. Normal Speed)
Ordinarily, there may be slight numerical differences in simulation results between Extreme and Normal speed modes. These differences are primarily due to rounding errors and are usually in the relative range of 1e–12 to 1e–15.
In certain circumstances, like extremely large models containing thousands of formulas, these slight differences can compound and grow in magnitude. If you are concerned about possible differences in your own model, Crystal Ball provides a special Compare Run Modes tool that you can use to compare the results between the two run modes.
To use this tool:
- Open and click the model you want to test.
- Choose Run > Tools > Compare Run Modes.
The Compare Run Modes dialog appears. Follow the instructions in the dialog.
When you are ready, click Run Comparison. If you are comparing speed results, the simulation runs once in Extreme speed and once in Normal speed. Otherwise, the simulation runs once with single-threaded and once with multi-threaded calculations. Results appear in a new workbook. The comparison summary tab, with all pertinent information, appears when the comparison is complete.
Share a comment, risk analysis tip or a new CB Tip with your fellow Crystal Ball users! Send your contribution to newsletter@crystalball.com.
> Previously published tips and techniques
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MONTE CARLO IN THE NEWS |
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Estimating Risk of Cancer Associated With Radiation Exposure From 64-Slice Computed Tomography Coronary Angiography
Source: Journal of the American Medical Association, July 18, 2007
Authors of a new study say estimated life-adjusted risk of cancer associated with a standard radiation dose during cardiac CT, with and without tube-current modulation protocols, is probably acceptable in older patients, especially men, but may exceed the benefits of the test in young patients, especially women, in whom other diagnostic tests may be preferable. Doses received by different organs during a given scan were estimated using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Originally presented in: Einstein AJ et al. JAMA 2007; 198:317-323. Subscription required to see article.
The Relative Performance Derby And Other Evils Of Modern Investment
Source: The Market Oracle, June 25, 2007 - 10:14 PM
Column by John Mauldin that discusses "portfolio diversification and the pitfalls that ensue on account of benchmarking." The author considers the use of Monte Carlo simulation to construct a universe of potential portfolios.
Are Your Finances Ready for Retirement?
Source: The Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2007
Research shows that almost half the people who put numbers on paper -- who actually take the time to estimate how much money will be coming in the door during retirement and how much will be going out -- end up changing their savings plans. And yet, most of us don't make the effort. This article discusses ways to build a realistic budget, including Monte Carlo simulation.
Read about Monte Carlo simulation in a recent article or paper? Let us know! Send your citation to newsletter@crystalball.com. |
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MICROSOFT EXCEL & THE WEB |
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WEB SITES:
Microsoft Download Notification
http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/render.aspx?displaylang=en&content=notifications
Save time finding the downloads you need. When you sign up for the free Download Notifications, Microsoft will send you a weekly customized e-mail newsletter notifying you of new downloads in the categories you selected during the sign-up process (e.g., Office applications, Microsoft drivers). This service is currently available in English and Japanese only.
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CBUG DISCUSSIONS |
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The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo! online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion. |
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Copyright (c) 2007 Oracle Corporation
Oracle, JD Edwards, PeopleSoft, Hyperion and Siebel are registered trademarks of Oracle Corporation and/or its affiliates.
Microsoft and PowerPoint are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.
Yahoo! is a registered trademark of Yahoo! Inc.
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July 27, 2007
