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IN THIS ISSUE |
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WHAT'S NEW |
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 Crystal Ball 7.3.1 Release
Crystal Ball version 7.3.1 has just been released. This is a minor release for bug fixes in OptQuest, licensing, and Crystal Ball. See the details on what was fixed in this release.
Customers under current maintenance contracts for Crystal Ball software are entitled to a free upgrade to this latest version of Crystal Ball. Current maintenance customers can download this new release from our Web site.
If you do not have current maintenance, and are interested in the latest version of the software, please contact your Crystal Ball sales representative. |
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End Of Life For Crystal Ball 2000.5 (5.5) and Earlier Versions--Clarification
 It was brought to our attention after sending the last newsletter, some customers were confused as to when we stopped selling Crystal Ball 5.X and earlier versions. To clarify, effective immediately, the Crystal Ball Global Business Unit has discontinued the sale of software licenses, maintenance and upgrades for Crystal Ball 2000.5 (5.5) and any earlier versions of the software.
While we will continue to support these products until October 31, 2007 (or for the duration of existing support agreements), we are no longer able to sell them.
> We recommend you upgrade to Crystal Ball 7 (you will need a new license code to do this). Click here to upgrade Crystal Ball today.
> Contact our Services group if you need help converting models to Crystal Ball 7 or for any of other consulting needs.
> Click here if you require help or further information.
 Upcoming Web Seminars
Como resolver problemas complexos nas áreas de engenharia, finanças, marketing e planejamento por meio do Crystal Ball
Data: 29 de agosto de 2007 das 13h as 14h.
Time: 1:00 pm S. America Eastern Standard Time (Brasil) 10:00 am Mountain Daylight Time (Denver)
No mundo real os problemas são complexos. Mas, em muitas vezes a solução pode ser encontrada por meio de ferramentas como planilhas eletrônicas combinadas com a flexibilidade da simulação de Monte Carlo.
Dentre estes problemas se destacam aqueles onde há incerteza sobre os valores futuros das variáveis e onde se devem quantificar os níveis de risco de cada escolha. A partir de informações quantitativas sólidas os gerentes podem tomar decisões em bases mais científicas e com menos subjetivismo.
Neste seminário com duração de 60 minutos, mostraremos como solucionar alguns problemas complexos utilizando-se planilhas eletrônicas juntamente com simulação de Monte Carlo. A simulação é realizada por meio das facilidades do Crystal Ball®. Estes exemplos são associados a quatro áreas distintas: mercado financeiro, engenharia, orçamento de capital e marketing.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
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CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES |
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RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Evaluating Mining Projects Using Monte Carlo Simulation
Please join Nathan Stubina of Barrick Gold as he discusses mining projects that are particularly well-suited to using a Monte Carlo approach. Nathan will show how input parameters such as capital, operating costs, mining rates, recoveries, and metal prices can easily be varied in order to determine which of them will have the greatest impact on the project’s economic success. In this way, project engineers can understand where to direct their focus.
> View this recorded Web seminar
NEW TEXTBOOK:
Riesgos en Proyectos de Inversión: Cómo enfrentarlos
By Eduardo Herrera Lana
Published by ©Eduardo Herrera Lana, Quito-Ecuador, July 2007
ISBN: 978-9942-01-109-1 (Includes a version of Crystal Ball software)
The book--written in Spanish--using symbols and metaphors, deals with problems
related to conception, modeling, analysis and management of risks in investment projects.
The author says, “I have tried to write a book with less rigor, that is, far away from the definitions, conventions, and formalisms of an academic book. The main idea was to showcase the stories underlying the learning process. This is a book with tales. A puzzle that someone will solve by themselves. Different approaches to different ways of facing risk.”
> Click here to read more about this new book.
FEATURED ARTICLE:
Reviewing Compressor Station Economics
By: Michael Swann, P.E., Waukesha Bearings Corp., Franklin, Connecticut; and Ramkumar Wallooppillai, P.E., TransCanada US Pipelines Central, Houston, Texas
Source: Pipeline and Gas Technology, August 14, 2007
The successful demonstration of new technologies for active magnetic bearings (AMB) and electric motor drives in recent natural gas pipeline applications has shown good reliability and availability, and has prompted the industry to take a fresh look at the financial case for these technologies.
As part of this demonstration, a review of bearing system alternatives for three different natural gas pipeline compressor case studies was undertaken using Monte Carlo simulation of future uncertain operating expenses.
> Read the entire featured article
WHITE PAPER:
COMPOUND PROCESS SIMULATION ON SPREADSHEET AND
APPLICATION TO INSURANCE MODELING
Xin Cao and
Richard E. (Gene) Feigel,
The Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Co.
Source: 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
A compound process is a sum of a random number of random variables. It has wide applications in business, finance, and
engineering. In the insurance industry, it plays a fundamental role in risk modeling to characterize claims. Simulating a
compound process is sometimes mishandled as a product of random variables. This mistake is common when using a
spreadsheet tool like Crystal Ball software.
This article investigates the underlying reason of the misuse, analyzes its consequences
and proposes a correction.
An example of a claims model with deductibles and reinsurance structures is shown and the efficiency approach is discussed.
> Read the entire white paper
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TRAINING SCHEDULE
Intro and Advanced Crystal Ball
USA and CANADA
Austin, TX: Aug. 28-29
Kansas City, KS: Aug. 28-29
Chicago, IL: Aug. 28-29
Rochester, NY: Sep. 5-6
Philadelphia, PA: Sep. 11-12
Minneapolis, MN: Sep. 11-12
Phoenix, AZ: Sep. 11-12
San Diego, CA: Sep. 18-19
Denver, CO: Sep. 18-19
Cincinnati, OH: Sep. 18-19
New York City, NY: Sep. 18-19
Seattle, WA: Sep. 25-26
Washington DC: Sep. 25-26
Edmonton, AB: Oct. 2-3
King of Prussia, PA: Oct. 2-3
Houston, TX: Oct. 2-3
Portland, ME: Oct 9-10
Peoria, IL: Oct. 9-10
Los Angeles, CA: Oct. 9-10
Charleston, WV: Oct. 16-17
Minneapolis, MN: Oct. 16-17
Washington, DC: Oct. 23-24
Cleveland, OH: Oct. 23-24
Orlando, FL: Oct. 30-31
Seattle, WA: Oct. 30-31
EUROPE
London, England: Sep. 4-5
Frankfurt, Germany: Sep. 18-20
Paris, France: Oct. 3-4
LATIN AMERICA
Visit the Web site for updates
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Visit the Web site for updates
Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Houston, TX: Sep. 5-6
Aberdeen, Scotland: Sep. 12-13
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
Chicago, IL: Aug. 30
San Diego, CA: Sep. 20
Jacksonville, FL: Sep. 27
Minneapolis, MN: Oct. 18
Washington, DC: Oct. 25
Introduction to Real Options
London, England: Sep. 6
New York City, NY: Sep. 20
Frankfurt, Germany: Sep. 20
Seattle, WA: Nov. 1
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
Washington DC: Sep. 27
Paris, France: Oct 5
Suggest a training
date or location
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COM 2007- 46th Conference of Metallurgists hosting Cu2007 the 6th Copper/Cobre Conference
August 27-28
Toronto, Canada
ISSSP Leadership Conference
September 13-14
Monterrey, Mexico
IQPC Lean Six Sigma Summit West
September 18-21, 2007
Las Vegas, NV
2nd Annual Global Six Sigma Summit & Industry Awards
October 23-26
Las Vegas, NV
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If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
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Tomorrow's Forecast is an online production of Decisioneering, Inc. Newsletters are e-mailed to subscribers near the end of the first and third weeks of the month.
This e-mail newsletter is sent only to those individuals who either:
(1) Subscribed at our Web site, a training course, or a tradeshow, or
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To unsubscribe, simply reply to the newsletter with the word 'UNSUBSCRIBE' as the subject of the e-mail. PLEASE leave the body of the message as you received it.
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You can also visit our Web site and follow the unsubscribe directions.
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MONTE CARLO IN THE NEWS |
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John Hancock Funds Adds New Retirement Portfolio Calculator to Web Site: Using Monte Carlo simulation, shows probabilities under model portfolio
Source: PR Newswire, Boston, August 1, 2007
"The goal of the Lifecycle Retirement Portfolio Probability Calculator is to show the results of a model portfolio built with the same asset allocation as the John Hancock Lifecycle Retirement Portfolio. The Calculator represents the probability that such a portfolio would last throughout retirement, given different retirement lengths and annual withdrawal rates. The chance of portfolio survival was projected using Monte Carlo simulation, which is useful for modeling outcomes with significant uncertainty and variety of inputs."
Multivariate Stasis in the Dental Morphology of the Paleocene- Eocene Condylarth Ectocion
Source: RedOrbit.com, June 17, 2007
The idea that complex phenotypes might persist unchanged over geological time seems to contradict observations of rapid adaptive evolution made on ecological time scales. Nevertheless, stasis, a pattern of statistically unchanging phenotypes, has been repeatedly documented in morphological time series. This study examined tooth morphology over time and compared results with those predicted by a Monte Carlo simulation of random walk.
Rating the Online Retirement Planners
Source: Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine, August 2007
Research shows that almost half the people who put numbers on paper -- who actually take the time to estimate how much money will be coming in the door during retirement and how much will be going out -- end up changing their savings plans. And yet, most of us don't make the effort. This article discusses ways to build a realistic budget, including Monte Carlo simulation.
Read about Monte Carlo simulation in a recent article or paper? Let us know! Send your citation to newsletter@crystalball.com. |
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MICROSOFT EXCEL & THE WEB |
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WEB SITES:
Microsoft Excel 2007 Cheat Sheet
Click Here For The Latest Tips for Excel 2007
Microsoft made some very dramatic changes in Excel 2007--possibly the biggest change to date! To quickly learn how to find your way around and get the most out of Excel 2007 check out this great resource.
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CBUG DISCUSSIONS |
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The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo! online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion. |
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Copyright (c) 2007 Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Oracle, JD Edwards, PeopleSoft, Hyperion and Siebel are registered trademarks of Oracle Corporation and/or its affiliates.
Microsoft, Excel and PowerPoint are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.
Yahoo! is a registered trademark of Yahoo! Inc.
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August 23, 2007
