(1) Como resolver problemas complexos nas áreas de engenharia, finanças, marketing e planejamento por meio do Crystal Ball

No mundo real os problemas são complexos. Mas, em muitas vezes a solução pode ser encontrada por meio de ferramentas como planilhas eletrônicas combinadas com a flexibilidade da simulação de Monte Carlo.

Dentre estes problemas se destacam aqueles onde há incerteza sobre os valores futuros das variáveis e onde se devem quantificar os níveis de risco de cada escolha. A partir de informações quantitativas sólidas os gerentes podem tomar decisões em bases mais científicas e com menos subjetivismo.

Neste seminário com duração de 60 minutos, mostraremos como solucionar alguns problemas complexos utilizando-se planilhas eletrônicas juntamente com simulação de Monte Carlo. A simulação é realizada por meio das facilidades do Crystal Ball®. Estes exemplos são associados a quatro áreas distintas: mercado financeiro, engenharia, orçamento de capital e marketing.

> View this recorded Web seminar

(2) Making Your Critical Path Smarter - Schedule Risk Analysis with Crystal Ball

Traditional critical path schedules depend upon everything happening exactly as predicted. But, activities vary in duration. They aren't exact. Varying activities can lead to changing project endpoints, early use of contingencies, resource re-allocation, re-negotiations with customers, and attention from business management.

Schedule risk analysis provides a way to 'make the activity durations smart', develop a true critical path schedule - one that is most likely vs. using a best-case or worst-case scenario, and focus in on the important activities vs. just what looks critical. Schedule risk analysis with Crystal Ball uses
the best in the project team's knowledge and the best in statistical methodology to create a realistic project schedule that you can actually deliver.

Please join Lorrie Tietze, Founder and Manager, Interface Consulting, LLC, for this one hour Crystal Ball Web seminar.

> View this recorded Web seminar

NEW TEXTBOOK:

The Complete Idiot's Guide to Lean Six Sigma

By Breakthrough Management Group with Neil DeCarlo
Published by Alpha
Copyright 2007
Softbound, 400 pages
ISBN: 1592575943

Increasingly popular with large and mid-sized companies
around the world, Lean Six Sigma is the new hybridization
of Six Sigma and Lean methodologies, and there is
no better approach for achieving operational excellence
in an organization. But how do you implement Lean Six Sigma, and what does it entail?

The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Lean Six Sigma is the first book of its kind to integrate the Lean Six Sigma tools within a clear stepwise progression, so readers know when and how to actually apply them in their jobs. As such, this book is superior as a companion to any corporate or organizational Lean Six Sigma “deployment.”

Be sure to check out Part Three for the section on Crystal Ball and Monte Carlo simulation for processes.

> Learn more about this textbook
> Order this textbook from Amazon.com

WHITE PAPER:

IMPROVING SOFTWARE PRODUCTIVITY USING LEAN SIX SIGMA
METHODS AND TOOLS
Kevin Lehigh
BearingPoint, Inc.
Source: 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference

Although equations and models have existed for some time, the means to easily apply this knowledge to software product development to improve productivity have been long in coming. Macro tools such as Crystal Ball software provide
an excellent way to achieve software productivity aims. This was accomplished by modeling software development effort, effects due to software size and complexity as well as quality issues against a schedule constraint.

As a Six Sigma project, a software spiral build cycle was modeled as the baseline. After doing a diagnostic/root cause analysis, various methods were identified that could effect improvement in software productivity such as more testing, improved peer reviews (PR), and reducing software complexity. The first improvement for the next build cycle focused on improving the peer review process. Crystal Ball was used to predict the impact of this change on productivity and in reducing the Cost of Poor Quality.

> Read the entire white paper

RISK TIP:

Enable Crystal Ball In Excel

When a user starts Crystal Ball and only sees Excel has loaded, Crystal Ball has probably been added to Excel’s disabled items list. During startup, Microsoft Office reviews all extensions and add-ins running with Excel. Those that Office detects to have problems during the load will either be fixed during startup or isolated. If the problems cannot be fixed a window will pop up that identifies the error and asks the users if they would like to disable that extension or add-in.

Today’s PC users have become accustom to clicking yes and next when these windows pop up during an application’s startup--more times than not the messages are never read. We encourage Crystal Ball users to read these messages as they play an important role in troubleshooting problems when it comes time to contact technical support. Here are instructions to troubleshoot a missing Crystal Ball toolbar after launching the application.

To enable Crystal Ball in Microsoft Excel 2003:

• Inside of Excel select the Help drop down
• Select about Microsoft Office Excel
• Select the Disabled Items Button in the bottom right corner of the window
• Enable the Crystal Ball entry
• Close Excel and restart Crystal Ball

To enable Crystal Ball in Microsoft Excel 2007:

• Click on the Office button in the upper left corner of the Excel Ribbon
• Select the Excel Options button on the bottom of the screen
• Click on the Add-Ins Button on the left
• Click the pull down menu at the bottom titled Manage and select Disabled Items and click Go
• Enable the Crystal Ball entry
• Close Excel and restart Crystal Ball

If after running through these instructions Crystal Ball continues to unsuccessfully load please email Crystal Ball technical support at helpdesk@crystalball.com.

Share a comment, risk analysis tip or a new CB Tip with your fellow Crystal Ball users! Send your contribution to newsletter@crystalball.com.

> Previously published tips and techniques

Our roundup is a list of risk-related events that we publish in the first newsletter of each month. We highlight the events of the next month to give you enough lead time to register for any that interest you.

October 2007

The IASTED Asian Conference on Modelling and Simulation (AsiaMS 2007)
The International Association of Science and Technology for Development (IASTED)
October 8-10, Beijing, China
Beijing Xijiao Hotel
http://www.iasted.org/conferences/home-571.html

ASHRM Annual Conference & Exhibition
American Society for Healthcare Risk Management (ASHRM)
October 10-13, Chicago, IL
Hyatt Regency
http://www.ashrm.org/ashrm/annual2007/

International Conference on Software Quality
American Society for Quality (ASQ)
October 16-17, Denver, CO
Sheraton Denver West
http://www.asq.org/conferences/software-icsq-2007/index.html

RMA Annual Risk Management Conference
The Risk Management Association (RMA)
October 21-23, New Orleans, LA
Sheraton New Orleans Hotel
http://www.rmahq.org/RMA/default.htm

PRIMA Institute
Public Risk Management Association (PRIMA)
October 22-26, Dallas, TX
Hilton DFW Lakes
http://www.primacentral.org/content.cfm?sectionid=108&EventID=39

WCBF’s 2nd Annual Global Six Sigma Summit & Awards
October 23-26, Las Vegas, NV
Rio All-Suite Hotel & Casino
http://www.gsssa.com
Full program now available to download! 15% discount when you quote the following discount code: 5081CB15

The Huntsville Simulation Conference 2007
October 30 - November 1, Huntsville, AL
The Huntsville Marriott Hotel
http://www.scs.org/confernc/hsc/hsc07/hsc07.htm

3rd Annual European Lean, Six Sigma & Process Improvement Summit
Six Sigma IQ
October 30-31, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Hotel Okura
http://www.iqpc.co.uk/cgi-bin/templates/singlecell.html?topic=241&event=13624

> Visit our Web site for the entire list of events (or to suggest an event for us to include)

Geometric Effects in the Control of Catalytic Selectivity by Surface Additives: Monte Carlo Simulation Studies
Source: Surface Science, Volume 191, Issues 1-2, 1987, Pages 239-248

The influence of lateral interactions between adspecies on a metal surface in the occurrence of “ensemble” and “electronic” effects in chemisorption and catalysis has been examined using Monte Carlo simulation method.

A Computer Simulation of Language Families
Source: Live Journal, Thu, 6 Sep 2007

This paper presents Monte Carlo simulations of language populations and the development of language families, showing how a simple model can lead to distributions similar to the ones observed empirically.

Monte Carlo Simulation: Predict How Certain is Uncertainty
Source: Prashant Hegde on August 17th, 2007

Uncertainty is a fact of life. Uncertainty arises because of many reasons - incomplete knowledge about the reality, complexity, our limitation to predict future events, unforeseen major events etc. This article explains the basics of Monte Carlo simulation models and how they can help simulate ‘reality’, help make predictions about the future outcome and help in making better decisions.

Read about Monte Carlo simulation in a recent article or paper? Let us know! Send your citation to newsletter@crystalball.com.

The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.

Latest topics: g-and-h Distribution OptQuest for Excel 2007 version of Crystal Ball Unlocking sheets for CB Predictor charts > Click here to visit CBUG and register to become a member

PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion.