 |
|
|
 |
IN THIS ISSUE |
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
 |
WHAT'S NEW |
 |
|
Crystal Ball Featured at the October ISSSP Six Sigma Software Tour 
Crystal Ball software is teaming with other leading suppliers of software for Six Sigma and the ISSSP (International Society of Six Sigma Professionals) to present a free, half-day workshop to demonstrate the latest Six Sigma software tools, including Minitab® 15, GainSeeker®, RapAnalyst™, and Quality Companion™ 2.
Every attendee will receive a 30-day, single-user evaluation copy of each software package. Registration is required; space is limited. This is a must-attend workshop for:
- Practitioners who want to broaden their skill set,
- Leaders who need to plan the future of their toolset, and
- Anyone who wants a quick education on the best data tools in the Six Sigma market.
Calendar of Upcoming Showcases
October 3 - Boston, MA
October 4 - Parsippany, NJ
October 11 - Seattle, WA
October 18 - Detroit, MI
>  See the schedule and register on the ISSSP Web site
Introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis
Dr. Huybert Groenendaal will present his online course, "Introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis,"
Oct. 5 - Nov. 2, 2007 at statistics.com.
This course will teach how to conduct accurate and
effective risk analyses, including framing a risk analysis
problem, best practices of risk modeling, selecting the
appropriate distribution, using data and expert opinion,
and presenting risk analysis results. In addition, the
course will provide an introduction to underlying
probability and statistics theory and various stochastic
processes, as well as illustrations in Crystal Ball.
The course lasts four weeks and consists of a series of
four weekly lessons (assigned readings and/or notes, plus
exercises). Expect to spend about 10-15 hours per week;
there are no required hours to be online.
> Click here for more information and to register
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Crystal Ball Risk Analysis Public Seminar
Join us for a FREE Crystal Ball Public Seminar. This half-day event will feature three speakers who will teach attendees new applications and best practices for using Crystal Ball for process improvement initiatives.
Karl Luce, Principal Consultant for Oracle's Crystal Ball Global Business Unit, will present:
- An overview of Monte Carlo simulation using Crystal Ball and its application within process improvement projects
- Transactional process simulation with emphasis on predicting quality and identifying inputs with major impact on output quality
- Stochastic optimization techniques to ultimately reduce project time and implement best solutions rapidly
- Estimation of cost savings for transactional projects
Denny Sly, Advanced Industrial Engineering for Rockwell Collins, will present:
- Using Crystal Ball to build a complex yield prediction tool
- Custom distributions with Excel functions
- Using decision tables and charts
Tim Williams, Six Sigma Master Black Belt for John Deere, will present, "Crystal Ball for Design Engineering-Optimizing Performance and Cost."
This event will take place in
Cedar Rapids, IA on Wednesday, October 3, 2007, from 10:00 a.m. - 2:00 p.m.
(CDT) at the Kirkwood Community College. Lunch will be provided.
For
more information and to register for this event, contact Joe Wozna (joey.wozna@oracle.com), 303.626.0108.
 Upcoming Web Seminar
Capital Project Evaluation and Optimization with Crystal Ball Tools
Date: Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Time: 9:00 am Mountain Daylight Time (Denver)
Location: Your desk
Imagine you have just gained approval and funding for a project based on a profit forecast from best-estimate numbers. After you have invested your time and money in the project, you face the grim reality that the “best-estimate” numbers you were working from weren’t so accurate.
Please join Steve Hoye, Senior Risk Consultant at Oracle’s Crystal Ball GBU, as he transforms the profit forecast in a spreadsheet model using Crystal Ball to simulate the possibility that the project will not meet its forecast NPV. Using the results of sensitivity analysis from the simulation, further refinements are then demonstrated on the model.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
|
|
| |
|
|
 |
CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES |
 |
|
Recorded Web Seminars
(1) The Next Generation of Financial Planning
Financial Planners have long searched for a tool that provides flexibility in modeling the specific nuances of various clients’ situations. The myriad of off-the-shelf financial planning programs contain many limitations. One of the biggest limitations found in most packages is not providing the flexibility to employ Monte Carlo simulation in the areas that you, as practitioner, would desire.
Please join Mike Patton, Principal of Integrity Wealth Management, LLC, as he demonstrates the use of Crystal Ball software in a series of financial planning applications. This Web seminar will examine the different ways Crystal Ball software can be utilized and the benefits that can be attained in a financial planning practice.
> View this Web seminar
(2) Cash Flow at Risk – Electronic Chip Production
Profitable production of electronic circuitry runs the gauntlet of unique technical and marketplace hurdles, all of which involve risk and cost. Many design firms choose to manage the process in house, because they believe the costs are deterministic and within budget. In fact, many of these costs require stochastic models, because single point analysis fails to value:
-
Cash flow at risk over a range of scenarios;
-
Covariance of cash flows of each new project with existing projects (lack of portfolio effect);
-
Opportunity costs of bearing risk for which they don’t have a comparative advantage;
-
Costs imposed by the capital markets for bearing risks.
Please join Alan Gorlick, financial consultant and University of Phoenix faculty member, as he shows the importance of using Monte Carlo simulation to determine cash flow and beyond.
> View this Web seminar
(3) Modelo de Valoración Financiera Para Proyectos de Construcción
Sebastián Castaneda, Experto internacional en Crystal Ball y Real Options Analysis Toolkit, nos hablará sobre el Modelo de valoración financiera para proyectos de construcción.
La evaluación financiera de proyectos de construcción es una herramienta clave antes de tomar cualquier tipo de decisión de inversión; la forma como se evalúan este tipo de proyectos, no es el adecuado desde el punto de vista financiero y analítico. Lo que se propone con esta metodología es una forma más precisa de realizar un análisis financiero por medio de un modelo que permita involucrar el comportamiento de las variables macroeconómicas y microeconómicas que afectan el sector, a través de la proyección de un flujo libre de caja, el cual se descuenta al WACC. Como resultado se tiene el Valor presente neto y la Utilidad neta, utilizando la simulación de Monte Carlo con el programa Crystal Ball, obteniendo un intervalo de confianza de los resultados esperados y analizando las variables que más afectan el valor en este tipo de negocios. Por ultimo se incluirá la valoración por medio de opciones reales incorporando las decisiones estratégicas que tienen este tipo de negocios.
> View this Web seminar (Mire esta presentación)
|
|
|
|
|
 |
 |
 |
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
|
TRAINING SCHEDULE
Intro and Advanced Crystal Ball
USA and CANADA
Houston, TX: Oct. 2-3
Los Angeles, CA: Oct. 9-10
Charleston, WV: Oct. 16-17
Minneapolis, MN: Oct. 16-17
Washington, DC: Oct. 23-24
Cleveland, OH: Oct. 23-24
Orlando, FL: Oct. 30-31
Seattle, WA: Oct. 30-31
King of Prussia, PA: Oct. 30-31
San Diego, CA: Nov. 6-7
Chicago, IL: Nov. 6-7
New York, NY: Nov. 6-7
Milwaukee, WI: Nov. 6-7
Washington, DC: Nov. 13-14
Boston, MA: Nov. 13-14
Phoenix, AZ: Nov. 13-14
Dallas, TX: Nov.
13-14
Houston, TX: Nov. 27-28
Montreal, QC: Nov. 28-29
Denver, CO: Nov. 28-29
Portland, OR: Nov. 27-28
Toronto, ON: Dec. 4-5
San Francisco, CA: Dec. 4-5
Raleigh, NC: Dec. 4-5
Albuquerque, NM: Dec. 4-5
Miami, FL: Dec. 11-12
Vancouver, BC: Dec. 11-12
Philadelphia, PA: Dec. 11-12
Washington, DC: Dec. 18-19
New York, NY: Dec. 18-19
San Diego, CA: Dec. 18-19
EUROPE
Paris, France: Oct. 3-4
LATIN AMERICA
Visit the Web site for updates
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Visit the Web site for updates
Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Buenos Aires, Argentina: Oct. 10-11
Calgary, AB: Oct. 16-17
Houston, TX: Dec. 18-19
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
Minneapolis, MN: Oct. 18
San Diego, CA: Nov. 8
Toronto, ON: Dec. 6
Miami, FL: Dec. 13
Introduction to Real Options
Seattle, WA: Nov. 1
San Francisco, CA: Dec. 6
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
Paris, France: Oct 5
Washington, DC: Dec. 20
Suggest a training
date or location
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
WCBF 2nd Annual Global Six Sigma Summit
October 24-25, 2007
Las Vegas, NV
SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition
November 11-14, 2007
Anaheim, CA
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tomorrow's Forecast is an online production of Decisioneering, Inc. Newsletters are e-mailed to subscribers near the end of the first and third weeks of the month.
This e-mail newsletter is sent only to those individuals who either:
(1) Subscribed at our Web site, a training course, or a tradeshow, or
(2) Downloaded software from our Web site and requested more Decisioneering news.
To Subscribe
Subscriptions to Tomorrow's Forecast are FREE. Click here to subscribe.
To Unsubscribe
To unsubscribe, simply reply to the newsletter with the word 'UNSUBSCRIBE' as the subject of the e-mail. PLEASE leave the body of the message as you received it.
If the e-mail address from which you are replying is different than the one to which this e-mail was sent, please include your original e-mail address.
AOL subscribers: Please state your name in the body of the message.
You can also visit our Web site and follow the unsubscribe directions.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
back to top
|
| |
 WHITE PAPER
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION AS PROCESS CONTROL AID
Dirk Jordan, Ph.D.,
Motorola
Source: 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
Field emission from carbon nanotubes (CNT) for display purposes was optimized using Design of Experiments (DOE). The
brightness was improved by three orders of magnitude but the achieved gains could not be sustained in the “Control” phase
of a DMAIC project and the process reverted to poor performance. It took an intense effort of circa two months to recover
the process. Monte Carlo simulations were used to provide an excellent fit to all the measured emission data over the course
of eight months in both range and shape. The simulations were also indicating the cause of the process drift. A hidden factor
that was too time- and labor-intensive to measure in real-time was responsible and uncovered. With the aid of the simulations
the process could have been recovered within days instead of months.
> View the entire white paper
CB TIP:
How to Use the Custom Distribution in Crystal Ball – The Discrete Distribution
(Tip #2 of 5)
Introduction
The Custom distribution in Crystal Ball is arguably the most versatile, but also one of the most difficult distributions to correctly use within Crystal Ball. In fact, using the Custom distribution, a Crystal Ball software user can construct five different kinds of distributions (see Table below).
Risk Analysis Tip |
Distribution |
Name used in Crystal Ball User Manual |
Tip 1 |
Discrete Uniform distribution* |
"Unweighted values" |
Tip 2 |
Discrete distribution |
"Weighted values" |
Tip 3 |
General distribution |
"Sloping continuous ranges" |
Tip 4 |
Histogram distribution |
"Continuous ranges" |
Tip 5 |
Cumulative Ascending distribution |
"Sloping continuous cumulative ranges" |
Each of these five distributions has a different use and application. The way that the Custom distribution “knows” which of the above five to make for you totally depends on the format of your input data ("date entry rules").
The goal of this Risk Analysis Tip Series is to make you aware of the five different distributions that you can construct using the Custom distribution and their various uses. The five Tips will also provide detailed instructions on how to format your data to construct the five different distributions with the Custom Distribution.
> View the Full Risk Tip (#2 of 5)
Share a comment, risk analysis tip or a new CB Tip with your fellow Crystal Ball users! Send your contribution to newsletter@crystalball.com.
> Previously published tips and techniques
|
|
back to top
|
|
MONTE CARLO IN THE NEWS |
|
|
Some Experts Question Industrywide Popularity of Monte Carlo Simulations
Source: InvestmentNews, Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Several experts, who attended the September Financial Planning Association Conference in Seattle, WA, presented their research about Monte Carlo-simulation usage.
Math Colloquium on Statistical Paleontology
Source: The Daily Gazette - Swarthmore, PA, USA, September 19, 2007
Swarthmore stat professor Steve Wang presented his statistical simulation research in modeling paleontological data. The study uses Monte Carlo Simulation to help uncover the exact primary cause of the end-Permian extinction, an unexplained extinction event occurring 250 million years ago involving the annihilation of nearly 95% of all Earth’s then-living species.
Introduction To Monte Carlo Simulation
Source: Investopedia (A Forbes Media Company), April 9, 2007
This article is a very basic over view of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). It is a good resource for someone beginning with MCS, or a good review for those already familar with it. "The MCS technique is straightforward and flexible. It cannot wipe out uncertainty and risk, but it can make them easier to understand by ascribing probabilistic characteristics to the inputs and outputs of a model. It can be very useful for determining different risks and factors that affect forecasted variables and, therefore, it can lead to more accurate predictions."
Read about Monte Carlo simulation in a recent article or paper? Let us know! Send your citation to newsletter@crystalball.com. |
|
back to top
|
|
MICROSOFT EXCEL & THE WEB |
|
|
WEB SITES:
Toxicology Excellence for Risk Assessment
http://www.tera.org/
TERA is a non-profit, 501(c)(3) corporation organized for scientific and educational purposes. Their mission is to protect public health by developing and communicating risk assessment information, sponsoring peer reviews and consultations, improving risk methods through research, and educating the public on risk assessment issues. This site has many great resources for the risk assessment community.
|
|
back to top
|
|
CBUG DISCUSSIONS |
|
|
The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo! online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion. |
|
back to top
Copyright (c) 2007, Oracle. All rights reserved.
Oracle, JD Edwards, PeopleSoft, Hyperion and Siebel are registered trademarks of Oracle Corporation and/or its affiliates.
Microsoft and PowerPoint are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.
Yahoo! is a registered trademark of Yahoo! Inc.
|
|
|
September 27, 2007
