Online Articles:

Simulation Wizardry
By Mike Patton
From the October 2007 Issue of Investment Advisor Magazine

Financial planners have long searched for a tool that provides flexibility in modeling the specific nuances of various clients’ situations. Finding that all-inclusive program has proved elusive. For instance, one software application may be adept at projecting retirement scenarios but very inadequate at estate planning. One may be a good tool for asset allocation but weak in other areas. Even if such a program did exist, it would likely not provide the flexibility to employ Monte Carlo simulation in the areas that you, as practitioner, would desire.

Then there’s the issue of using linear projections to forecast future results. How helpful are these linear projections anyway? There’s considerable agreement that linear forecasts provide limited benefits. Several years ago, we began to see Monte Carlo simulation enter into financial planning programs—albeit on a limited basis —even though it had been a staple in other industries for many years. This article will examine the different ways Monte Carlo simulation can be utilized, specifically with Crystal Ball software, in a financial planning practice.

> Read the entire article

Comparing Ecological Risks of Pesticides
By Bob Peterson, Entomology Professor, Montana State University

Environmental risk assessment of pesticides and other chemicals often uses the Risk Quotient (RQ) method to characterize risk quantitatively. An RQ is calculated by dividing an environmental exposure value by a toxicity end-point value. Tier 1 RQs, which are characterized by highly conservative toxicity and exposure assumptions, are used primarily for screening out negligible risks in regulatory decision making. It has been argued that the tier 1 RQ approach is valuable for making direct comparisons of quantitative risk between pesticides.

However, an outstanding question is whether relative risks among pesticides would change if refinements of exposure are incorporated into the RQ calculations. This study tested that hypothesis. Aquatic ecological risk assessments were conducted for 12 herbicide and 12 insecticide active ingredients used on agricultural crops in the USA. The pesticides were chosen because surface-water monitoring data for them were available as part of the United States Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA). Ecological receptors and effects evaluated were aquatic non-vascular plants (acute risk), aquatic vertebrates (acute risk) and aquatic invertebrates (acute risk) for the herbicides and aquatic vertebrates (acute and chronic risk) and aquatic invertebrates (acute and chronic risk) for the insecticides. The data indicate that there were significant statistical correlations between numerical rankings of tier 1 RQs and RQs using refined environmental exposures.

The results support the hypothesis that numerical ranking of RQs for the purpose of comparing potential ecological risks is a valid approach because the rankings are significantly correlated regardless of the degree of exposure refinement.

> Read the entire article

Our roundup is a list of risk-related events that we publish in the first newsletter of each month. We highlight the events of the next month to give you enough lead time to register for any that interest you.

November 2007

INFORMS Annual Meeting 2007
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
November 4-7, Seattle, WA
Washington State Convention & Trade Center and the Sheraton Seattle
http://meetings.informs.org/Seattle07/

SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition
Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
November 11-14, Anaheim, CA
http://www.spe.org/atce/2007

December 2007

Winter Simulation Conference 2007
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
December 9-12, Washington, DC
The JW Marriott Hotel
http://www.wintersim.org/

SRA 2007 Annual Meeting - Risk 007: Agents of Analysis
Society for Risk Analysis (SRA)
December 9-12, San Antonio, Texas
http://www.sra.org/events_2007_meeting.php

> Visit our Web site for the entire list of events (or to suggest an event for us to include)

These conferences have announced a call for speakers. If you wish to submit a talk that discusses Crystal Ball software in some aspect, and if that talk is accepted, please let us know. We are always willing to offer some form of support to our customers.

SIMUTools 2008

First International Conference on Simulation Tools and Techniques for Communications, Networks and Systems
March 3-7, 2008, Marseille, France
http://www.simutools.org
Full Papers due: October 15, 2007

SIMUTools 2008 is the first international conference focusing on Simulation Tools and Techniques for Communications, Networks, and Systems. The conference will address all aspects of simulation modelling and analysis. Papers are sought on the topics of methodology, tools, applications, and practices. Particular emphasis will be given to papers that bridge multiple areas.

The Call for Papers is located at http://www.simutools.org/cfp.shtml.

2008 Spring Simulation Multiconference (SpringSim'08)

April 14 - 17, 2008
Crowne Plaza Ottawa Hotel
Ottawa, Canada
http://www.scs.org/springsim/

The 2008 Spring Simulation Multiconference (SpringSim'08) is an annual conference sponsored by The Society for Modeling and Simulation International which covers state-of-the-art developments in computer simulation technologies, as well as scientific, industrial, and business applications. Areas covered include high-performance computing technologies, models and algorithms, GUI visualization technologies, communications and much more. Application disciplines covered include advanced telecommunication; computer systems; military, government & aerospace; energy, and other industries. The conference includes keynote speeches presented by technology and industry leaders, technical sessions, professional development courses and seminars, as well as vendor exhibits. Scientists, engineers, managers, educators, and business professionals who develop or use simulation tools are invited to participate and present original papers. Proposals are solicited for papers, panels, tutorials, workshops, seminars, exhibits, social activities and for other presentation, discussion and sponsorship formats. People are always welcome to benefit by taking an organizing role. SpringSim'08 offers many ways to promote simulation products and to enhance corporate images. You are invited to use the Spring Simulation Multiconference in ways that best serve your interests.

The Call for Papers is located at http://www.scs.org/confernc/springsim/springsim08/cfp/springsim08.htm.

The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.

Latest topics: 2D simulation with individual (patient) data in inner loop Batch Fitting in version 7.3 vs. version 5.5 Suggestions for Crystal Ball class > Click here to visit CBUG and register to become a member

PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion.