Crystal Ball: Tomorrow's Forecast If you cannot read this newsletter, you can view it online at http://www.crystalball.com/newsletters/newsletter215.html December 20, 2007 | Issue 215 | www.crystalball.com

Happy Holidays From Crystal Ball

It is hard to believe 2007 has almost passed. This will be the last issue of Tomorrow's Forecast for 2007. Everyone at Oracle's Crystal Ball Global Business Unit wishes you happy holidays and a wonderful 2008!

It was an adventurous year--full of many changes--for all of us at Crystal Ball. We are finally getting settled into our role as part of Oracle and we plan to continue to serve all of our Crystal Ball customers and contacts very well in 2008. While there were many notable events that occurred in 2007, a few recent events include:

The 2007 Crystal Ball Oil & Gas Forum

We are pleased to announce the tremendous success of our third annual Crystal Ball Oil & Gas Forum. Crystal Ball Forums are industry- or application-specific gatherings typically lasting a full day and designed to give attendees the opportunity to work with colleagues who have successfully applied Crystal Ball to their work.

The Oil & Gas Forum, held December 13 in Houston, drew more than 55 attendees from different segments in the Oil & Gas field. Companies represented at the Forum included Chevron, KBR, The Williams Companies, Schlumberger and El Paso Corporation. The forum featured six diverse speakers who covered topics ranging from "Forecasting Reserve Potential From Horizontal Wells" to "Integrating Schedule and Cost Modeling."

2007 Korean Crystal Ball User Conference: "Maximize Corporate Profit and Value Under Uncertainty"

The second annual Korean Crystal Ball User Conference, hosted by Eretec Inc., occurred November, 2007 in Yeongdeungpo-Gu, Seoul, South Korea. Over 100 Crystal Ball users attended the conference. The conference included two tracks: Six Sigma and Finance.

One notable presentation was by Tae Sik Kim, CPA, The Korean Institute of Certified Public Accountants, "IFRS (International Financial Report Standard) and Simulation/Real Options." Other companies that presented included 3M Korea, Motorola Korea and Samil PWC.

January Focus: Life Sciences/Pharma

January 2008 will kick off with our focus of the month Life Sciences/Pharma. Events include a public seminar January 23, 2008 in Boston, MA. More information will be available in the next issue of Tomorrow's Forecast. Also feel free to refer to our Web site, www.crystalball.com, as it will be updated as more information about this and other Life Science events become available.

For more information on Life Sciences/Pharma, click here.

Upcoming Web Seminars

Driver Based Revenue Forecasting

Date: January 29, 2008
Time: 9:00 am MST (Denver)
Location: Your desk

There are many basic financial questions in the pharmaceutical industry that are hard to answer:  Why are sales growing/not growing? Why are we under/over budget?  In this one-hour Crystal Ball Web seminar attendees will learn the benefits of establishing revenue forecasting standards with a focus on revenue models, business processes, and supporting analytics. 

Presented by John Grecsek, Finance Director, World Wide Operations, Pfizer.

> Register to attend this Web seminar

Optimizing Pharmaceutical Sales Forces Territories

Date: January 22, 2008
Time: 9:00 am MST (Denver)
Location: Your desk

How should pharmaceutical firms allocate fair and efficient sales territories to their sales representatives?  How can the many variables be incorporated into a model to come up with an optimum allocation of sales territories?  Furthermore, how can this process be automated and updated as the company's markets expand and change.  Learn how an optimization model was created to help a large pharmaceuticalcompany efficiently allocate sales force territories.

Presented by Dr. Francisco Zagmutt, Senior Risk Analyst with Vose Consulting.

> Register to attend this Web seminar

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RESOURCES

Recorded Web Seminar

Capital Budgeting and Risk Analysis in Oil & Gas

Valuation of Oil & Gas assets is a critical and challenging process.  In this session, the following important topics will be addressed using Crystal Ball: analytical skills, techniques, and challenges in Oil & Gas capital budgeting; project valuation; distribution fitting; correlation assumptions; risk analysis of Oil & Gas projects; sensitivity analysis, sensitivity charts and tornado charts; scenario analysis; and Monte Carlo simulation analysis.

Presented by Betty Simkins, Williams Companies Professor of Business in the Department of Finance at Oklahoma State University.

> View this event at your convenience.

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Online Articles

A Case for Simulation
Steven Bonacorsi, Bonacorsi Consulting, LLC
Source: Society of Manufacturing Engineers, November 27, 2007 Issue

Have you ever finished reading an article and said to yourself, "Wow, that's exactly what I was thinking, just written with far more eloquence!"

Well, we found "A Case for Simulation," by Steven Bonacorsi of Bonacorsi Consulting, LLC, to be a perfect example of that type of inspiring, succinct prose. This should be mandatory reading for all proponents of simulation! Take a moment to read and consider this opinion piece and share it with your co-workers and clients.

> View the entire online article

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Analysis: Predictive Analytics and Oracle OpenWorld

Ted Cuzzillo, CBIP
Source: The Data Warehousing Institute, November 28, 2007 Issue

This article features the advantage Crystal Ball Software and predictive analytics can have in the BI industry. The author felt skeptics of predictive analytics should learn more and start using predictive analytics as an advantageous benefit to their industry and company. His visit to the Crystal Ball booth at Oracle OpenWorld helped confirm this.

> View the entire online article

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White Paper

Modeling the Performance of a Luer Access Device (LAD) Using Monte Carlo Simulation
Marty Stout, Principal Engineer, BD Medical
Source: 2006 Crystal Ball User Conference

A population of data was obtained from medical clinicians that represented the number of times a Luer Access Device (LAD) was accessed, the depth to which various syringes were inserted into the valve, and the amount of relative rotation between the syringe and medical valve during insertion. These input factors were shown to affect the pressure holding capability or un-inserted backpressure performance of an LAD. A designed experiment and linear regression were used to establish the magnitude of these effects. The performance of the valve was then modeled using Crystal Ball® software.

> View the entire white paper

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CONFERENCE ROUNDUP

Our roundup is a list of risk-related events that we publish in the first newsletter of each month. The following are events occurring in January/February, 2008. The intention of listing these is to give enough lead time to register and make plans for any that interest you.

February 2008

PARMA Annual Conference and Exposition
Public Agency Risk Managers Association
February 10-13, Anaheim, CA
http://www.parma.com/

And don't forget the January events listed in last month's issue of Tomorrow's Forecast:

January 2008

ISDSI2008: International Conference on Decision Sciences and Technology for Globalization
January 2-4, Ghaziabad, India
http://www.imt.edu/isdsi2008/index.asp

9th Annual Lean Six Sigma and Process Improvement Summit
International Quality & productivity Center (IQPC)
January 28-31, Orlando, FL
http://www.iqpcevents.com/ShowEvent.aspx?id=43892&details=43968

> Visit our Web site for the entire list of events (or to suggest an event for us to include)

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SPEAKING OPPORTUNITIES

These conferences have announced a call for speakers. If you wish to submit a talk discussing Crystal Ball software in some aspect, and if that talk or award is accepted, please let us know. We are always willing to offer some form of support to our customers.

COLLABORATE 08

April 13-17, 2008, Denver, Colorado
Colorado Convention Center
http://www.collaborate08.com/collaborate08

COLLABORATE is held the same time of year as previous Hyperion customer events, but with a more robust program and greater access to industry experts and solution providers.

• Learn from nearly 150 Hyperion focused education sessions and access hundreds of other education sessions covering Oracle technology and applications.
• Gain insight into Oracle’s strategy and direction for Hyperion products.
• Access more than 200 IT solution providers in the Exhibitor Showcase.
• Share best practices with the greater Oracle community with more than 7,500 customers in attendance.

Get involved in the first-ever Hyperion program at COLLABORATE 08: Technology and Applications Forum for the Oracle Community by giving a presentation! Your knowledge, experience and insight into the Hyperion product set will be a valuable asset to the COLLABORATE 08 experience. Our education classes are selected by a customer committee and one complimentary conference registration will be provided per selected class.

The Call for Papers is online now and available here.

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The 5th International Mediterranean Modelling Multiconference

September 17-19, 2008
Briatico, Italy

The 5th edition of the I3M MultiConference renovates the opportunity to have an International MultiConference involving the different topics related to Modelling & Simulation and providing an ideal opportunity to meet together in the unique framework of the South Italy Riviera. The International Program Committee will accept two types of camera-ready papers: extended paper (10 pages, 2 columns); regular paper (6 pages, 2 columns).  Please refer to the conferences Web site for further information.

Key Dates
Extended Abstracts               March, 15th 2008
Acceptance Notification       May, 20th 2008
Camera Ready Papers         June, 10th 2008

For more information or to submit a paper, please contact Francesco Longo, f.longo@unical.it, or the I3M 2008 secretariat, i3m2008@msc-les.org

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April 29, 30 and May 1, 2008
University of Massachusetts Amherst

The call for papers submission deadline is January 30, 2008. Topics may include, but are not limited to:

Molecular Mechanisms, pharmacological effects, chemical and radiological toxicology, risk assessment implications, low-dose modeling, evolutionary foundations, ecological effects, clinical/therapeutic effects, psychological/behavioral responses, bioengineering processes, exercise science, epidemiology of low doses, industrial hygiene and legal implications

For more information or to submit a paper, click here.

2008 Joint SCEA & ISPA Conference & Training Workshop

June 24-27, 2008
Pacific Palms Conference Resort in Industry Hills, CA

Information about this event and online registration for the 2008 Conference is now available at: http://www.sceaonline.net/events/conference/conferences.cfm.

If you are interested in presenting at the 2008 Conference, SCEA & ISPA are seeking papers and presentations covering a wide variety of cost estimating and cost analysis topics.  Prospective speakers should follow the “Submit a Paper” URL on the SCEA Web site at: http://www.sceaonline.net/events/callforpapers.cfm. 

In order to be eligible, speakers will be required to submit an abstract (less than 300 words) and speaker biography (less than 300 words). Abstract submissions are due no later than February 1, 2008 with papers/presentations due April 1, 2008. 

TRAINING SCHEDULE

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CRYSTAL BALL USER GROUP DISCUSSIONS

The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.

Latest topics:

• Is there such a thing as a "list assumption"
• OptQuest® and user macros
• Beta from expert opinion (with just a percentage)

> Click here to visit CBUG and register to become a member

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