WHAT'S NEW
Happy New Year from Oracle's Crystal Ball Global Business Unit. We hope you have all recovered from the holiday season and are ready to kick off a successful 2008. Crystal Ball's January 2008 industry focus is Life Sciences. Plan on attending any or all of the events this month. We look forward to seeing you there!
Sincerely,
The Crystal Ball Global Business Unit
Life Sciences/Pharmaceutical FREE Public Seminar in Boston
Date: Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Time: 10:00 A.M. - 2:00 P.M. (EST) 
Location: Boston, MA at the The Westin Boston Waterfront
Join us for a FREE Crystal Ball Public Seminar. This half-day event will feature two speakers who will teach attendees new applications and best practices for using Crystal Ball for the Life Science and Pharmaceutical industries.
The two presenters will be:
Gary Bush, Managing Director for Decision Strategies, presenting, "Parametric Modeling in Evaluating New Drug Development Strategies."
"Defining a target product profile and forecasting sales year by year can create blind spots about the sources of uncertainty and risk in a new product development. Comparing alternative strategies to create transparency of the complete picture for optimal decision making is the real goal. By framing distinctly different ideas, the value of a more aggressive (versus targeted) approach will be clear. By quantitatively modeling the key parameters that drive the forecast and clinical risk, insights into where there is value of gathering additional information or investing to gain control can lead to greater confidence and significantly reduce risk. This talk will illustrate the framing methods and parametric modeling approach to enable this clarity, together with examples of how the Crystal Ball tools are used in this type of parametric model."
Brian Malejan, Staff Consultant for Oracle's Crystal Ball Global Business Unit, presenting, "Crystal Ball and Life Sciences."
"We will be examining a life science model including both a top down and a bottom up forecast. We will apply Crystal Ball to these forecasts and see how simulations can be run from both types of forecasts. It is important, when modeling in this way, to take into account the inherent variability existent rather than just looking at single static values in order to get a realistic view of the values we are forecasting. We will also examine how Crystal Ball can run time-series forecasting on historical data in the life science industry. In doing this, we will examine level, trend and seasonality to better understand our data and make the most accurate prediction possible."
This event will take place in Boston, MA on Wednesday, January 23, 2008, from 10:00 A.M. - 2:00 P.M. (EST) at the Westin Boston Waterfront. Lunch will be provided.
For more information and to register for this event, contact Jackie Farritor (jackie.farritor@oracle.com), 303.334.6808.
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Upcoming Web Seminars
Optimizing Pharmaceutical Sales Forces Territories
Date: Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Time: 9:00 A.M. MST (Denver)
Location: Your desk
How should pharmaceutical firms allocate fair and efficient sales territories to their sales representatives? How can the many variables be incorporated into a model to come up with an optimum allocation of sales territories? Furthermore, how can this process be automated and updated as the company's markets expand and change. Learn how an optimization model was created to help a large pharmaceutical company efficiently allocate sales force territories.
Presented by Dr. Francisco Zagmutt, Senior Risk Analyst with Vose Consulting.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
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Driver Based Revenue Forecasting
Date: Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Time: 9:00 A.M. MST (Denver)
Location: Your desk
There are many basic financial questions in the pharmaceutical industry that are hard to answer: Why are sales growing/not growing? Why are we under/over budget? In this one-hour Crystal Ball Web seminar, attendees will learn the benefits of establishing revenue forecasting standards with a focus on revenue models, business processes, and supporting analytics.
Presented by John Grecsek, Finance Director, World Wide Operations, Pfizer.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
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Central European Risk Analysis and Risk Management Conference
This event is organized by Corvinus University of Budapest , and sponsored by SzigmaSzerviz Ltd. Budapest. The objective is to share information about new developments
in risk management-related research
(integrated risk management method and software); examples on recent trends and best practices
in risk management (strategic, financial, operational and
project risks); and to introduce Crystal Ball software to the risk analysis and predictive analytics audience.
Date: April 11, 2008
Time: 8:00 A.M. - 4:30 P.M. (welcome reception April 10 from 6:00 P.M. - 8:00 P.M.)
Location: Corvinus University of Budapest,
Auditorium No. III
Who should attend:
- Decision makers, internal auditors, financial managers,
project management and risk management experts from industry,
public administration and banking sector interested in having more
information about risk management and the associated best
practice.
- Project management and risk management experts from
universities and project management and risk management
associations.
Participation fee (includes conference documents, food and beverages during breaks and the welcome reception) :
- EUR 150 until January 31, 2008
- EUR 200 from February 1- April 1, 2008
For more information or to register, click here.
RESOURCES
On Demand Life Science Web Seminars
These Life Science Web Seminars are available to view at your convenience. They cover a wide range of topics relating to the Life Science industry. Topics include:
Learn how stochastic analysis can be used in the valuation of both early and late stage drug discovery pipelines to understand the risk-adjusted value of the pipeline and determine how to increase the expected monetary value (EMV).
> View all Crystal Ball on demand Web seminars.
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Winter Simulation Conference 2007 Resource
The Winter Simulation Conference 2007 occurred in Washington D.C., Dec. 9-12, 2007.
It was the fortieth anniversary of the Winter Simulation Conference, featuring a comprehensive program ranging from introductory tutorials to state-of-the-art research and practice. The conference included student presentations, exhibits, training sessions by software vendors, business meetings for professional societies and software user groups.
The program, abstracts, and full papers are now
available here:
Winter Simulation Conference 2007 Resources
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White Paper
Monte Carlo Simulations For Risk Analysis In Pharmaceutical Product Design
Bir Gujral, Freeman Stanfield, Doug Rufino
DSM Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Source: 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
Risk analysis is one of the essentials of Process Analytical Technology (PAT) being adopted in the Pharmaceutical Industry
as per the new guidance of the FDA. Under PAT, the quality is designed into a Pharmaceutical product, rather than established
by testing of a finished batch. The traditional spreadsheet analysis of quality outcomes does not give any probability
information on quality.
In PAT, the critical product quality variables are identified from the historic data. Crystal Ball software
is run on critical parameters to build Monte Carlo simulation models. The simulation model provides probability data
for almost all possible outcomes by analyzing the statistics of simulations. The probability of quality in the final product can
be predicted with confidence.
> View the entire white paper
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Risk Tip
How to use the Custom Distribution in Crystal Ball – The Cumulative Ascending Distribution (Tip #5 of 5)
Introduction
The Custom distribution in Crystal Ball is arguably the most versatile, but also one of the most difficult distributions to correctly use within Crystal Ball. In fact, using the Custom distribution, a Crystal Ball software user can construct five different kinds of distributions (see Table below).
Each of these five distributions has a different use and application. The way the custom distribution “knows” which of the above five to make for you totally depends on the format of your input data ("date entry rules").
The goal of this Risk Analysis Tip Series is to make you aware of the five different distributions that you can construct using the custom distribution and their various uses. The five Tips will also provide detailed instructions on how to format your data to construct the five different distributions with the custom distribution.
> View the Full Risk Tip (#5 of 5)
Share a comment, risk analysis tip or a new Crystal Ball Tip with your fellow Crystal Ball users! Send your contribution to newsletter@crystalball.com.
> Previously published tips and techniques
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MONTE CARLO IN THE NEWS
Mitigating Capability Risk
Source: The Agile Manager, December 28, 2007
With the cost of capital on the rise, the need to focus on returns is much more acute. Unfortunately, IT has not traditionally excelled at maximizing returns. Industry surveys consistently show that a third to a half of all IT projects fail outright or significantly exceed their cost estimate. Delays are costly: IRR craters 25% if a $5mm / 12 month project with an estimated annual yield of $30mm is four months late. Monte Carlo simulation that factors the most common project risks, including schedule, turnover, and scope inflation, will consistently show that the probability of delivery being made three months late or later is greater than the probability that delivery will occur early, on time, or within one month of delivery.
ASRC Aerospace Contributes to NASA's Constellation System
Source: Reuters, January 8, 2008
NASA recently awarded ASRC Aerospace a three-year extension to the
original five-year University-affiliated Spaceport Technology
Development Contract (USTDC). As part of this contract ASRC Aerospace
is contributing to the design, development and activation of NASA's
ground support equipment and systems used for processing the
Constellation Program elements at Kennedy Space Center. ASRC Aerospace
tailored a Monte Carlo simulation program to perform the analysis for the Pad 39B
Lightning Protection System. The analysis resulted in validating a
three-tower design concept thus providing a considerable cost savings
compared to the original four tower design concept.
Read about Monte Carlo simulation in a recent article or paper? Let us know! Send your citation to newsletter@crystalball.com.
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RISK ANALYSIS AND THE WEB
Contingency Analysis
Contingency Analysis is a family of Web sites, a comprehensive resource for trading, financial engineering and financial risk management. Here you will find a glossary linked to detailed articles, an active discussion forum, book reviews, research and much more. The site is a valuable resource for risk analysis and predictive analytics in any field.
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TRAINING SCHEDULE
Intro and Advanced Crystal Ball
USA and CANADA
New Orleans, LA: Jan. 15-16
Chicago, IL: Jan. 15-16
New York, NY: Jan. 23-24
Indianapolis, IN: Jan. 23-24
Dallas, TX: Jan. 29-30
Boston, MA: Feb. 5-6
San Francisco, CA: Feb. 5-6
Seattle, WA: Feb. 12-13
Cedar Rapids, IA: Feb. 12-13
Rochester, NY: Feb. 12-13
Hartford, CT: Feb. 20-21
Toronto, ON: Feb. 20-21
Milwaukee, WI: Feb. 26-27
Washington, DC: Feb. 26-27
EUROPE
Visit the Web site for updates
LATIN AMERICA
Visit the Web site for updates
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Visit the Web site for updates
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Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Dallas, TX: Feb. 11-12
Houston, TX: Feb. 12-13
Calgary, AB: Mar. 18-19
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
Denver, CO: Jan. 31
Seattle, WA: Feb. 14
Introduction to Real Options
New York, NY: Jan. 25
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
Pittsburgh, PA: Mar. 6
Suggest a training
date or location |
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CRYSTAL BALL USER GROUP DISCUSSIONS
The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
Latest topics:
- DefineAssumND with custom distribution
- Forecast filtering with values obtained from another forecast
- Adjusting Correlation Coefficients
> Click here to visit CBUG and register to become a member
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