Crystal Ball: Tomorrow's Forecast If you cannot read this newsletter, you can view it online at http://www.crystalball.com/newsletters/newsletter217.html January 29, 2007 | Issue 217 | www.crystalball.com

New Crystal Ball Contact Information

As Crystal Ball continues to integrate with Oracle, some of our email addresses and phone numbers are changing. Please note the newsletter address is now CBNews_ww@oracle.com. Please update this in your address book. For Crystal Ball Support, use the following:

Crystal Ball Help Desk

Email: CBSupport_ww@oracle.com
Phone: 303.334.7599

And please remember our current address and main phone number is:

Oracle Crystal Ball Global Business Unit
7700 Technology Way
Denver, Colorado. 80237

Main phone: 303.334.4000
Main fax: 303.334.7598

ASQ 2008 Lean Six Sigma Conference

When: February 11-12, 2008
Where: Phoenix, AZ

Mark your calendars today for ASQ's Lean Six Sigma Conference! Last year, nearly 400 Six Sigma professionals attended this premier conference.

Learn from proven applications and real results in in-depth learning sessions. Leverage new ideas and technologies from conference exhibitors and sponsors. Enjoy networking opportunities scheduled throughout the conference within a variety of markets, levels of expertise and degrees of complexity.

For more information or to register, visit the ASQ Web site.

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RESOURCES

Recorded Web Seminar

Optimizing Pharmaceutical Sales Forces Territories

How should pharmaceutical firms allocate fair and efficient sales territories to their sales representatives?  How can the many variables be incorporated into a model to come up with an optimum allocation of sales territories?  Furthermore, how can this process be automated and updated as the company's markets expand and change.  Learn how an optimization model was created to help a large pharmaceutical company efficiently allocate sales force territories.

Presented by Dr. Francisco Zagmutt, Senior Risk Analyst with Vose Consulting.

>View this Web seminar

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White Paper

Risk Analysis of a Commercial Satellite Project To Determine Project Health
Tweed Ross III, Booz Allen Hamilton
Source: 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference

This paper discusses the methodology and results of an independent risk assessment performed on a supposedly “healthy” commercial satellite development program to uncover any unidentified risks to the program’s cost or schedule baselines. Despite the program’s having a robust risk-management effort staffed by experienced personnel, this assessment found approximately $62 million and seven months of unmitigated risk exposure.

The methodology used in this assessment, in combination with a set of statistical tools, was able to demonstrate that the underestimation of the amount of exposure to risk stemmed from (1) inaccuracies in the estimates at completion, (2) the project team’s underestimation of risk severity, and (3) overemphasis on technical aspects of the project. This paper also includes a notional example of how this risk-assessment methodology can be employed across an entire portfolio of projects.

> View the entire white paper

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Presentation

Integrated Cost Schedule Using Risk Drivers
David T. Hulett, Ph.D., Hulett & Associates, LLC
http://www.projectrisk.com/index.html

This presentation covers the use of the Risk Driver Method in schedule risk and cost risk, plus the use of schedule risk analysis results in cost risk analysis for an integrated cost / schedule risk analysis. The approach was applied on a refinery project in Houston. The cost risk uses Crystal Ball for the integration with schedule risk. It encompasses the impact of schedule risk on escalation as well as labor using a new risk driver method.

> Click here to view the presentation

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CONFERENCE ROUNDUP

Our roundup is a list of risk-related events that we publish in the first newsletter of each month. The following are events occurring in February/March, 2008. The intention of listing these is to give enough lead time to register and make plans for any that interest you.

March 2008

First International Conference on Simulation Tools and Techniques for Communications, Networks and Systems: (SIMUTools 2008)
March 3-7, Marseille, France
http://www.simutools.org/index.shtml

IASTED International Conference on Web-based Education (WBE 2008)
The International Association of Science and Technology for Development (IASTED)
March 17-19, Innsbruck, Austria
http://www.iasted.org/conferences/home-610.html

And don't forget the February event listed in last month's issue of Tomorrow's Forecast:

February 2008

PARMA Annual Conference and Exposition
Public Agency Risk Managers Association
February 10-13, Anaheim, CA
http://www.parma.com/

> Visit our Web site for the entire list of events (or to suggest an event for us to include)

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SPEAKING OPPORTUNITIES

These conferences have announced a call for speakers. If you wish to submit a talk discussing Crystal Ball software in some aspect, and if that talk or award is accepted, please let us know. We are always willing to offer some form of support to our customers.

COLLABORATE 08

April 13-17, 2008, Denver, Colorado
Colorado Convention Center
http://www.collaborate08.com/collaborate08

COLLABORATE is held the same time of year as previous Hyperion customer events, but with a more robust program and greater access to industry experts and solution providers.

• Learn from nearly 150 Hyperion focused education sessions and access hundreds of other education sessions covering Oracle technology and applications.
• Gain insight into Oracle’s strategy and direction for Hyperion products.
• Access more than 200 IT solution providers in the Exhibitor Showcase.
• Share best practices with the greater Oracle community with more than 7,500 customers in attendance.

Get involved in the first-ever Hyperion program at COLLABORATE 08: Technology and Applications Forum for the Oracle Community by giving a presentation! Your knowledge, experience and insight into the Hyperion product set will be a valuable asset to the COLLABORATE 08 experience. Our education classes are selected by a customer committee and one complimentary conference registration will be provided per selected class.

The Call for Papers is online now and available here.

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20th European Modeling and Simulation Symposium

September 17-19, 2008
Briatico, Italy

The European Modeling and Simulation Symposium is one of the most important simulation appointments in Europe. The conference focuses on modeling and simulation in industries taking into consideration both applications and theoretical approaches. The conference proposes a multi-sides perspective to the modeling and simulation environment. Tracks organization is intended to cover different research macro-areas dedicated to Industrial Engineering, Effective Design, Business, Economy and Finance, Medicine, Methodologies, Techniques and Applications. Such framework give scientists, technicians and users the opportunity to interact and collaborate on the most challenging research topics in the field of modeling and simulation.

The International Program Committee will accept two types of camera ready papers: extended paper (10 pages, 2 columns); regular paper (6 pages, 2 columns). Please refer to the on line author’s instruction.

Key Dates:
Extended Abstracts March, 15th 2008
Acceptance Notification May, 20th 2008
Camera Ready Papers June, 10th 2008

For further Information please contact Francesco Longo, f.longo@unical.it

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WCBF Lean and Six Sigma Summit

April 29-May 2, 2008
Chicago, IL

Call for Storyboard Presentations
Lean and Six Sigma Summit

Storyboard presentations will be on display for the entire summit.  Authors will be available to discuss their presentations on both days of the summit during the morning and afternoon refreshment breaks.  This is a great opportunity to showcase the work you have done to our senior level audience even if you have not been approached to be on our speaker panel.

All accepted Storyboard presenters will qualify for a 30% discount to attend the summit.  The deadline for abstracts is March 18th, 2008.

Abstracts should be up to 250 words in length, outlining the project to be covered.  Please email abstracts to juliet.simmonds@wcbf.com.

Further details regarding the required format of storyboards will be given to successful presenters.  As a rough guideline, storyboards will be approximately 4-5 ft wide and 3-4 ft high, standing on tabletops.  A prize will be presented to the best storyboard presentation at the end of the summit.  Storyboard presentations featured at the conference will be published on the WCBF Web site after the event.

If you have any queries regarding Storyboard presentations, please contact Juliet Simmonds at the email above.

More information about the event can be found here.

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TRAINING SCHEDULE

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CRYSTAL BALL USER GROUP DISCUSSIONS

The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.

Latest topics:

• How does Crystal Ball generate a Normal Distribution
• Tornado Chart vs. % Contribution
• Modern Portfolio Theory-Efficient Frontier-Securities

> Click here to visit CBUG and register to become a member

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