Crystal Ball: Tomorrow's Forecast If you cannot read this newsletter, you can view it online at http://www.crystalball.com/newsletters/newsletter219.html February 28, 2008 | Issue 219 | www.crystalball.com

Crystal Ball Public Seminar - London

When: Wednesday 26th March 2008
Where: One South Place, London EC2M 2RB (Moorgate Tube)

Join us for this half day seminar and learn how you can use Crystal Ball to enhance your spreadsheet models and how to use Monte Carlo simulation for predictive management, forecasting and optimisation. Also learn about some practical industry applications. Lunch and refreshments will be provided.

For more information, click here or contact Patrick Bolger: patrick.bolger@oracle.com or + 44 20 7816 7665.

Seminario Ejecutivo: Análisis De Riesgos Con Crystal Ball - Guayaquil, Ecuador ASQ 2008 Lean Six Sigma Conference

Oracle - Crystal Ball le invita al Seminario Taller “Seminario Ejecutivo: Análisis de Riesgo con Crystal Ball” que tendrá lugar en la ciudad de Guayaquil 14 de marzo de 2008 de 15 a 19h00.

El seminario de 4 horas abordará los principales campos de aplicación de Crystal Ball que contribuyen a mejorar drásticamente la calidad de la toma de decisiones a nivel gerencial:

• Modelos de simulación: configuración, ejecución e interpretación de resultados con Crystal Ball.
• Modelos predictivos: uso de CB Predictor para el pronóstico de ventas, costos, flujos de caja, etc.
• Modelos de optimización: uso de OptQuest para optimizar variables críticas bajo control como la cantidad a invertir, el número de empleados a contratar, etc.

Fecha: 14 de marzo en Guayaquil, Ecuador
Hora: 3 p.m. - 7 p.m.
Presentador: Eduardo Herrera
Locacion: Hotel Hilton Colon
Alimentos y bebidas serán proveídos

Para registrarse a la conferencia por favor contáctese con juan.ortiz@oracle.com.  Los espacios son limitados.

Seminario Ejecutivo: Análisis De Riesgos Con Crystal Ball - Ciudad de México, México

Oracle - Crystal Ball le invita al Seminario Taller “Seminario Ejecutivo: Análisis de Riesgo con Crystal Ball” que tendrá lugar en la Ciudad de México 27 de marzo de 2008 de 3 p.m. a 8 p.m.

El seminario de 4 horas abordará los principales campos de aplicación de Crystal Ball que contribuyen a mejorar drásticamente la calidad de la toma de decisiones a nivel gerencial:

• Valuacion de Proyectos (Trabajamos Predictor y Simulacion).
• Portafolio de Inversiones (OptQuest).
• Usar Crystal Ball para hacer un Pronostico Estocastico: Modelar Presios del Petroleo, Cobre etc. Todo con Brownian Motion with Mean Reversion and Jump Diffussion or Mix.

Fecha: 27 de marzo en Ciudad de México, México
Hora: 4 p.m. - 8 p.m.
Presentador: Luis Zaldivar
Locacion: Hotel Camino Real, Santa Fe
Alimentos y bebidas serán proveídos

Para registrarse a la conferencia por favor contáctese con erik.yaker@oracle.com.  Los espacios son limitados.

2008 Crystal Ball Financial Forum - New York City

The Crystal Ball Financial Forum will be held April 17th at the Hilton Times Square in Manhattan, NY.  The event will feature a full day of case studies, best practices and workshops led by Crystal Ball and risk modeling experts in the financial industry. 

Attendees at this event will:

• Discover innovative applications for using Crystal Ball from the people who know it best in their industry - other users
• Learn the latest techniques for risk analysis, simulation and optimization
• Exchange solutions and network with professionals in your industry who have successfully used Crystal Ball
• Improve how you communicate risk and how to get the most out of your forecasting and analysis results

> Speakers and Abstracts
> Schedule
> Register Here

RESOURCES

Recorded Web Seminars

Comparing Alternative Capital Equipment Expenditures by Factoring In Uncertain Operating Costs and Reliability

Discounted cash flow (DCF) computations permit the comparison of alternative investments on a Net Present Value (NPV) basis.  However, the future operating expenses for capital equipment that have uncertain future power and maintenance costs challenge our ability to properly represent these costs in a DCF computation. Using Monte Carlo simulation we can characterize these costs and calculate the financially justified premium for the given discount rate and project life, as well as arrive at an expanded capital cost premium justified for purchase of the newer technology.

Presented by Michael K. Swann, Manager of North America, Waukesha Magnetic Bearings.

> View this Recorded Web seminar

Domestic Distribution Network Optimization

Economic slowdown, changes in consumer behavior, increased competition from domestic and international rivals, and rising fuel prices put high pressure on retailers to reduce costs.  Supply chain optimization has become a requirement for retailers to achieve such goal.

During this one-hour Crystal Ball Web seminar, our presenter will demonstrate how a domestic distribution network optimization model was created to enable Maersk Logistics to make the best strategic decision for the client. The model created incorporates both operations and financial perspectives.  

Presented by Patthira Siriwan, Project Manager, Maersk Logistics.

> View this Recorded Web seminar

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White Paper

Using Open Crystal Ball and Crystal Ball For Environmental Modeling At The Hanford Site
Brett Simpson, Robert Corbin, Michael Anderson; Vivid Learning Systems, Inc. and Dr. Charles Kincaid, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Source: 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference

As part of its environmental remediation program at the Hanford Site, the U.S. Department of Energy needed a method to estimate ground contaminant source term inventories and uncertainties. To address this need, a stochastic model, the Hanford Soil Inventory Model (SIM), was created to provide inventories and uncertainties for 75 analyses to 377 different locations encompassing 57 years of operations using historical production and surveillance data. Using OCB, comprehensive simulations were performed, producing 450,000 forecasts from 2.6 million assumptions. Reference values for selected locations and analyses fall within the SIM predicted 0.5 to 99.5 percentile uncertainties 68% of the time. Numerous waste management contractors and regulatory organizations at the Hanford Site have used, and continue to use, the results.

> View the entire white paper

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New Book

Third Version of the Book "Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide"

David Vose, Vose Consulting

David Vose spent a large amount of last summer rewriting and expanding his popular book "Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide"!

"Risk analysis is a constantly evolving field, and the new (third) edition of the book explains in practical terms how to apply a great number of state-of-the-art techniques," says David Vose. Some of the new additions to this edition include modeling copulas, financial time series, optimization, and many other risk analysis techniques that we have applied in real consulting projects. This new edition also includes chapters and sections written by some of our other consultants.

The book is already available for pre-order from these Web sites:

• http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470512849.html
• http://www.amazon.com/Risk-Analysis-Quantitative-David-Vose/dp/0470512849/

The planned publishing date by Wiley is March for the UK and May for other markets.

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CONFERENCE ROUNDUP

Our roundup is a list of risk-related events that we publish in the first newsletter of each month. The following are events occurring in March/April, 2008. The intention of listing these is to give enough lead time to register and make plans for any that interest you.

April 2008

2008 INFORMS Conference on OR/MS Practice: Applying Science to the Art of Business
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
April 13-15, Baltimore, Maryland
http://meetings.informs.org/Practice08/

Spring Simulation MultiConference 2008
April 14–17, Ottawa, Canada
http://www.scs.org/Conferences.cfm#10

Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation (BRIMS) Conference
April 14-17, Providence, Rhode Island
http://www.sisostds.org/

RIMS 2008 Annual Conference & Exhibition
Risk and Insurance Management Society (RIMS)
April 27-May 1, San Diego, California
http://www.rims.org

And don't forget the March events listed in last month's issue of Tomorrow's Forecast:

March 2008

First International Conference on Simulation Tools and Techniques for Communications, Networks and Systems: (SIMUTools 2008)
March 3-7, Marseille, France
http://www.simutools.org/index.shtml

IASTED International Conference on Web-based Education (WBE 2008)
The International Association of Science and Technology for Development (IASTED)
March 17-19, Innsbruck, Austria
http://www.iasted.org/conferences/home-610.html

> Visit our Web site for the entire list of events (or to suggest an event for us to include)

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SPEAKING OPPORTUNITIES

These conferences have announced a call for speakers. If you wish to submit a talk discussing Crystal Ball software in some aspect, and if that talk or award is accepted, please let us know. We are always willing to offer some form of support to our customers.

20th European Modeling and Simulation Symposium

September 17-19, 2008
Briatico, Italy

The European Modeling and Simulation Symposium is one of the most important simulation appointments in Europe. The conference focuses on modeling and simulation in industries taking into consideration both applications and theoretical approaches. The conference proposes a multi-sides perspective to the modeling and simulation environment. Tracks organization is intended to cover different research macro-areas dedicated to Industrial Engineering, Effective Design, Business, Economy and Finance, Medicine, Methodologies, Techniques and Applications. Such framework give scientists, technicians and users the opportunity to interact and collaborate on the most challenging research topics in the field of modeling and simulation.

The International Program Committee will accept two types of camera ready papers: extended paper (10 pages, 2 columns); regular paper (6 pages, 2 columns). Please refer to the on line author’s instruction.

Key Dates:
Extended Abstracts March, 15th 2008
Acceptance Notification May, 20th 2008
Camera Ready Papers June, 10th 2008

For further Information please contact Francesco Longo, f.longo@unical.it

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First Annual Crystal Ball Six Sigma Forum

The Crystal Ball Six Sigma Forum will take place Thursday, May 8th, at the Courtyard by Marriott Magnificent Mile in downtown Chicago. This unique, one-day user event will consist of 6-7 presenters on practical Lean Six Sigma, Six Sigma, and DFSS topics that involve Crystal Ball. For more information on the event and schedule, visit: http://www.crystalball.com/forum/sixsigma.html.

Do you have experience applying Crystal Ball to real-world problems in process and product design? Can you share your knowledge and experience with a network of like-minded peers? We've already begun to offer speaking slots to selected Crystal Ball customers, but we are also opening this opportunity to the entire community of users to allow you the chance to submit your proposed topic. A typical Forum presentation is 40-minutes and begins with a PowerPoint-based discussion on the problem, followed by details of the solution, often including an example model. The emphasis is on practical applications with broad applicability.

If you have a case study you'd like to present, send the title, short abstract, and your contact information to: CB_SIXSIGMA_US@ORACLE.COM for consideration.

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WCBF Lean and Six Sigma Summit

April 29-May 2, 2008
Chicago, IL

Call for Storyboard Presentations
Lean and Six Sigma Summit

Storyboard presentations will be on display for the entire summit.  Authors will be available to discuss their presentations on both days of the summit during the morning and afternoon refreshment breaks.  This is a great opportunity to showcase the work you have done to our senior level audience even if you have not been approached to be on our speaker panel.

All accepted Storyboard presenters will qualify for a 30% discount to attend the summit.  The deadline for abstracts is March 18th, 2008.

Abstracts should be up to 250 words in length, outlining the project to be covered.  Please email abstracts to juliet.simmonds@wcbf.com.

Further details regarding the required format of storyboards will be given to successful presenters.  As a rough guideline, storyboards will be approximately 4-5 ft wide and 3-4 ft high, standing on tabletops.  A prize will be presented to the best storyboard presentation at the end of the summit.  Storyboard presentations featured at the conference will be published on the WCBF Web site after the event.

If you have any queries regarding Storyboard presentations, please contact Juliet Simmonds at the email above.

More information about the event can be found here.

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TRAINING SCHEDULE

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CRYSTAL BALL USER GROUP DISCUSSIONS

The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.

Latest topics:

• Linking Excel Workbooks
• Modeling a discrete categorized distribution
• Forecast extraction order

> Click here to visit CBUG and register to become a member

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