Crystal Ball: Tomorrow's Forecast If you cannot read this newsletter, you can view it online at http://www.crystalball.com/newsletters/newsletter220.html March 13, 2008 | Issue 220 | www.crystalball.com

WHAT'S NEW

Call For Speakers: First Annual Crystal Ball Six Sigma Forum

The Crystal Ball Six Sigma Forum will take place Thursday, May 8th, at the Courtyard by Marriott Magnificent Mile in downtown Chicago. This unique, one-day user event will consist of six presenters speaking about practical Lean Six Sigma, Six Sigma, and DFSS topics that involve Crystal Ball. For more information on the event and to register, visit: http://www.crystalball.com/forum/sixsigma.html.

Do you have experience applying Crystal Ball to real-world problems in process and product design? Can you share your knowledge and experience with a network of like-minded peers? We've already begun to offer speaking slots to selected Crystal Ball customers, but we are also opening this opportunity to the entire community of users to allow you the chance to submit your proposed topic.

A typical Forum presentation is 40-minutes and begins with a Microsoft® PowerPoint®-based discussion on the problem, followed by details of the solution, often including an example model. The emphasis is on practical applications with broad applicability.

If you have a case study you'd like to present, send the title, short abstract, and your contact information to: CB_SIXSIGMA_US@ORACLE.COM for consideration.

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Crystal Ball Public Seminar - London

When: Wednesday 26th March 2008
Where: One South Place, London EC2M 2RB (Moorgate Tube)

Join us for this half-day seminar and learn how you can use Crystal Ball to enhance your spreadsheet models and how to use Monte Carlo simulation for predictive management, forecasting and optimisation. Also learn about some practical industry applications. Lunch and refreshments will be provided.

For more information, click here or contact Patrick Bolger: patrick.bolger@oracle.com or + 44 20 7816 7665.

2008 Crystal Ball Financial Forum - New York City

The Crystal Ball Financial Forum will be held April 17th at the Hilton Times Square in Manhattan, NY.  The event will feature a full day of case studies, best practices and workshops led by Crystal Ball and risk modeling experts in the financial industry. 

Attendees at this event will:

• Discover innovative applications for using Crystal Ball from the people who know it best in their industry - other users
• Learn the latest techniques for risk analysis, simulation and optimization
• Exchange solutions and network with professionals in your industry who have successfully used Crystal Ball
• Improve how you communicate risk and how to get the most out of your forecasting and analysis results

> Speakers and Abstracts
> Schedule
> Register Here

MARCH FOCUS: ACADEMIC

Web Seminars

"Crystal Ball Concepts and Business Practices For the Higher Ed Community" by Pat Leach, author of Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number.

Date: March 18, 2008
Location: Your desk

As the economic world becomes increasingly volatile, universities continue to incorporate training in probabilistic methods into their programs, with many using such methods in the running of their own administrative business. This presentation, aimed at the academic community, will show how the application of Crystal Ball to analyses such as pro forma cash flow estimation, revenue forecasting, and option valuation results in greater understanding of the possible outcomes and brings clarity to the decision-making process.

9:00 AM MDT: Hour I- "Crystal Ball Concepts and Business Practices For the Classroom" is designed to be a teaching tool for professors.
Register for Part I

11:00 AM MDT- Hour II- "Higher Ed Solutions" will demonstrate the effectiveness of such concepts in running university administrations.
Register for Part II

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Event

March 31 - April 3, 2008: ASEE Engineering Dean's Invitational, La Jolla, CA

The annual ASEE Engineering Deans Institute (EDI) provides an opportunity for engineering deans to gather and discuss the crucial issues facing their schools, colleges, and profession. For a few days, a single-stream program fosters dialogue between deans, industry leaders, and those in important roles in research and government. Deans share best practices, learn about career prospects for their graduates, and develop a voice for engineering education and the role of engineering in society. Social activities and plenty of time for conversation encourage the cultivation of relationships and an intensely rewarding experience.

Click here for more information

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Academic Resources

A new special release to the already rich-in-content Education Alliance resource page, is the "Thinking in Ranges" Crystal Ball Curriculum. This course is designed by Crystal Ball trainers, and offers a 45-minute lesson in Monte Carlo simulation, forecasting, and predictive analytics. Pared down from the Crystal Ball Education Alliance executive training program, this curriculum delivers Crystal Ball and its best business practices in an accessible and student-friendly format. It is for current Classroom Partners only. For more information on this curriculum or to become a classroom partner, contact the Crystal Ball Education Alliance at 303.334.6812 or cbacademic_ww@oracle.com.

For more information on Crystal Ball and the March Academic Focus, visit our Web site, www.crystalball.com, or contact our Education Alliance at: cbacademic_ww@oracle.com or 303-334-6812.

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MONTE CARLO IN THE NEWS

Using Monte Carlo Simulation as Process Control Aid
Source: iSixSigma, March 10, 2008, by Dirk Jordan

Monte Carlo simulations are often used as a powerful tool in the Analyze or the Improve phase of a Six Sigma DMAIC project. For instance, Monte Carlo simulations can be used to improve the capability of processes. The Monte Carlo simulations can quantify the expected variation improvement. However, simulations are not only very powerful when utilized in the earlier phases of a DMAIC project, they also are a powerful tool in statistical process control. A project involving
carbon nanotubes (CNTs) provides an example.

Physics Provides Answer to Airplane Seat Scramble
Source: Cnn.com, March 10, 2008 by Emma Clarke

A nuclear physicist has used Monte Carlo simulation to calculate a method for boarding planes, which he claims will slash the time spent waiting in the aisle for other passengers to stow their luggage and sit down.

Changing The Way Antibiotics Are Prescribed May Be Key To Controlling Epidemics
Source: ScienceDaily, Feb. 22, 2008

The problem of drug-resistance has become endemic in today's hospitals despite the best efforts of the medical profession. In the United States alone, this currently causes about 100,000 deaths per year. Now, a sophisticated new mathematical model, using Monte Carlo simulation,
as identified what may be the key to getting this growing health problem under control: Changing the way antibiotics are prescribed and administered.

Read about Monte Carlo simulation in a recent article or paper? Let us know! Send your citation to CBNews_ww@oracle.com.

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MICROSOFT EXCEL AND THE WEB

www.awhereexpress.com

Got Maps? Looking for a new way to analyze and visualize your data?  AWhere Express creates dynamic maps or visualizations from Excel data.  Visualize performance,  gaps, clusters, patterns and opportunities – then communicate them with dynamic, census-building PowerPoint presentations.  Short learning curve and affordable price point.

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TRAINING SCHEDULE

CRYSTAL BALL USER GROUP DISCUSSIONS

The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.

Latest topics:

• Erroneous circular calculation errors
• Random number problem
• CB auto open

> Click here to visit CBUG and register to become a member

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