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Hazardous Situation Made Manageable with
Crystal Ball
CUSTOMER OF THE MONTH (JAN. 1999)
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Boro Malinovic is a Senior Nuclear Engineer at Fauske & Assoc.,
providing risk analysis services to the chemical and petrochemical
industries. Fauske & Assoc. were recently involved in advising
on the cleanup of facilities used to produce plutonium during the
Cold War. Because of the hazardous nature of these materials and
the potential for contamination, risk plays an unavoidable part
in any decision making in this area. These same factors also contribute
to the impracticality of collecting all the data necessary to reach
a clear-cut decision. A lack of understanding of risk and the reticence
to deal with it can paralyze an expensive, time-consuming project.
As part of this recent project, Fauske & Assoc. were charged
with determining the viability of transporting packs of spent nuclear
fuel canisters. To do this, the water content within these packs
had to be determined because an excessive amount of water presents
a potential risk for corrosion. This estimate had to be determined
on limited observations of thousands of canisters to be moved. Experts
working on this project provided "low", "best-estimate"
and "high" end values for the water content. Using Crystal
Ball, Fauske & Assoc. then performed 60 simulations to test
these interpretations, allowing them to generate a trustworthy conclusion
regarding canister water content.
Crystal Ball facilitated the many simulations needed to complete
the analysis and according to Boro, "it would be difficult
to otherwise put together this many simulations and present them
in a sensible manner". Boro stated that in the past he has
conducted his own Monte-Carlo simulations, which could often take
weeks to complete. Boro was also pleased that independent professional
statisticians looking at their report gave Fauske & Assoc. "high
marks for using Crystal Ball to graphically represent both input
and output, and produce the results needed to move forward."
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