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For Hasbro, Predicting the next Hot Toy
is Not Child's Play
CUSTOMER OF THE MONTH (JANUARY, 1999)
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Tony Lucci is a Manager of Business Planning and Analysis for Hasbro
dealing in the area of Girls and Creative Play Toy Plans. Hasbro
is the nation's second largest toy manufacturer and some of the
well known toys in this area include Play-Dough, Lincoln Logs and
Lite Brite. Tony currently uses Crystal Ball in investment analysis
to help determine the profitability of new toy brands and lines.
Prior to his current position, Tony worked in Operations and used
Crystal Ball to determine capacity planning. In one particular instance,
Crystal Ball was used to run simulations to determine the probability
of achieving a favorable outcome in the area of new technology acquisition.
After employing Crystal Ball, it was determined that the new technology
had only a 20% probability of success, thus allowing Hasbro to walk
away before engaging in such a high-risk investment.
Tony credits Crystal Ball with providing greater efficiency and
accuracy because CB "allows you to get a better handle on what
your possible outcomes and probabilities are". Before using
Crystal Ball Tony engaged in "eternal what-if scenarios"
which required a huge number of manual calculations and still resulted
in not much better than best/worst case scenarios in which he hoped
to achieve a number somewhere in the middle.
In a competitive environment like the toy industry where the product
line is continually changing, it is necessary to have all the tools
for success. In Tony's experiences at Hasbro, he has determined
that Crystal Ball is an essential ally in making the proper decisions.
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